Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 13 CFB

We've made it to the last weekend of the College Football regular season.  The Treble stumbled again going 1-2 last weekend as we limp to the finish line.  Regardless of how we do this week, the first edition of the Treble will be a successful one.  If you told me at the start I'd hit 60% of my picks, I would be ecstatic.  I appreciate all my readers who have been with me on this wild ride and look forward to providing content on all bowl games and conference championships.

Trusty Treble Season Record: 18-12 (60%)

Notre Dame -11 @ USC

This is a game involving two prestigious programs going in different directions.  Notre Dame is looking to run the table and complete a perfect regular season.  With a win at The Coliseum, the Irish will clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff and a likely date with Clemson.  USC on the other hand is 5-6 and is coming off a loss against rival UCLA.  Critics and former players have been very vocal about Clay Helton at the helm, fearing the rest of the Pac-12 South will surpass USC over the next few seasons.  

Notre Dame is the vastly superior team in this matchup.  The Irish come in ranked third in S&P+ defense and fifth in defending explosiveness.  USC has a -9 turnover margin good for 121st in the nation.  Notre Dame's defense will create havoc and make life tough for Freshman QB JT Daniels.  USC is 34th in havoc, but Notre Dame's defense matches up extremely well stopping the big play.

Expect Notre Dame to put an old fashioned beatdown on USC for their last chance to impress the Committee.

Baylor +7 vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech is currently in shambles and it looks as if Kliff Kingsbury's time as Head Coach may be coming to an end.  They have lost four straight including an extremely disappointing performance against Kansas State last week only scoring six points in the 21-6 loss.  Third string QB Jett Duffey played with a torn meniscus which limited him severely and currently is questionable to go this week.  This could mean Texas Tech might have to start a fourth string QB who has never seen the field. 

While both teams need a win to gain bowl eligibility, I believe this Baylor team will be hungrier.  After a 1-11 season last year, Baylor has an opportunity to get back to a bowl with an upset victory at AT&T Stadium.  I actually like the Bears under Matt Rhule to make an impressive turnaround from one win to get to bowl eligibility in this one as seven point underdogs.

Washington +3 @ Washington State

The Apple Cup has huge implications in the Pac 12 North as well as the College Football Playoff.  Washington State needs a win here and next week in the Pac 12 Championship game against Utah to have any chance at making the Playoff.  Washington has dominated the Apple Cup since 2009, going 8-1 against Wazzou and covering the spread in seven of the last eight games.

My model has this game actually favoring Washington -0.5, so I looked into the matchups to see if Washington should really be favored going to Pullman.  Wazzou QB Gardner Minshew II has been unbelievable this year throwing for 4325 yards and 36 TDs to only 7 INTs.  However, Washington has many of the tools to stop Minshew and Washington State's passing attack.  Washington has the ninth ranked defense according to S&P+.  Even more importantly Washington's defense has excelled in defensive IsoPPP as they are ranked fifth in the nation at limiting big plays.  Washington's secondary does a great job of creating havoc as they rank 30th in the nation.  

Minshew is going to be under duress and will at times try to force passes into tight windows.  I'm calling for the Washington defense to make some big plays forcing a few turnovers and Senior's QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin to play well on offense.  Washington gets the road upset victory and moves on to face Utah in the Pac 12 title game next week.