Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 6 CFB

Welcome back to another Trusty Treble as we had a third straight profitable week for the column.  The lone loser was Texas Tech as West Virginia came out scoring in bunches early, while the Red Raiders' QB Alan Bowman left the game due to injury .  Texas Tech almost got a back door cover, but ultimately could not cover the 3.5 points.  Our two winners weren't really a sweat at all as Arkansas gave Texas A&M a game as a three touchdown underdog and Notre Dame had a statement victory against Stanford.

Trusty Treble Record: 7-2 (77.7%)

Keep in mind when betting spreads, 55% is very solid.  This 11 game sample size will have some regression in the next few weeks (most likely), but we will ride the streak until that day comes!

LSU @ Florida (+3)

Florida comes back to The Swamp after an upset victory in Starkville against Mississippi State.  This matchup has been played extremely tight over the last four meetings being decided by only 17 points total.  In the last eight meetings between the two teams, the underdog has won five out of eight which bodes well for the Gators.  I have Florida ranked as the #1 team in returning production in the SEC and LSU was ranked last in the same category.  LSU has played over its head thus far this season with some stellar D that ranks #15 in S&P Defense.  QB Joe Burrow finally had a solid outing last week, but I am not putting much stock in that effort as it was against an Ole Miss defense that also gave up 41 points to FCS Southern Illinois.  

I really like targeting games that have a close spread and a low total and this game fits that bill.  This will be a defensive struggle and I can see it being a lot like Florida's 13-6 win against Mississippi State last week.  This is the beginning of a brutal stretch for LSU in the next four weeks (@Florida, vs. Georgia, vs. Mississippi State, and vs. Alabama after a bye).  There could be a slight lookahead factor to next week as a possible Top 5 matchup with Georgia is on the horizon with a win.  

Dan Mullen, while at Mississippi State, was 4-0 against the spread with two outright victories against LSU in the last four years.  I'll take Florida to win a hard fought, first to 14 points type of game and cover the spread.

LB Te'Von Coney leads the Irish with 32.5 tackles.

Notre Dame (-5) @ Virginia Tech

Notre Dame makes the trip to Blacksburg after a statement victory at home against Stanford last weekend.  I had the Fighting Irish in my column last week and in a possible let down situation, I am still backing them.  The switch from Brandon Wimbush to Ian Book is paying off in dividends already as Book has a 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has connected on 74.3% of his passes.  S&P ranks this Irish defense as the #5 defense in the nation so far this season and they could definitely make their case for #1.  

Virginia Tech bounced back from the HUGE upset that Old Dominion put on them with an upset victory of their own against Duke.  Both teams came into that matchup pretty banged up as both were without its starting QB and several other key starters.  VT QB Josh Jackson is out indefinitely with a broken fibula and is a huge blow to the Hokies' chances for the rest of the year.  Backup Ryan Willis played very well last as Jackson's replacement, but this Notre Dame defense will be a much tougher task.  After the Old Dominion game, starting DE Trevon Hill was dismissed from the team as well compiling the other missing players Virginia Tech has.  

When I looked into the advanced metrics of the matchup, there was one key stat that really caught my eye.  Virginia Tech's defense ranks 128th in defending explosiveness and giving up big plays.  I can see Notre Dame breaking off some huge plays in this game and putting up some points.  I am having trouble seeing Virginia Tech keep pace against a stout defense and five points is an easy play for me here.  I see Notre Dame winning by 7+ on the road in a hostile environment to keep the dream of a National Championship alive.

UAB (+10) @ Louisiana Tech

UAB and Louisiana Tech battle in a key matchup in the Conference USA West division.  The two teams join North Texas as contenders in a Group of Five conference that has made some early noise.  This matchup is going to be much closer than the 10 point spread posted.  

RB Spencer Brown leads UAB's rushing attack.

UAB Head Coach Bill Clark has been a CUSA Away Dog five times and is 5-0 against the spread in those situations with four outright victories.  UAB is coming off an easy victory against Charlotte, while Louisiana Tech came back from 21 down to upset North Texas even though they were out-gained 427-359 in yards.  The big matchup to watch in this game is Louisiana Tech QB pressure against UAB's offensive line.  Louisiana Tech relies on sacks and rushing the quarterback on defense.  That plays right into UAB's strength as UAB has only given up three.  UAB comes into this game off a bye and an easy game, while Louisiana Tech is going to be worn down after back-to-back tough weeks that came down to the wire.  UAB is a live dog and I might have a shot on the moneyline as well.

Best of luck this weekend and as always reach out to me on Twitter @DekeMathews if you have any questions or feedback!