CFB Week 8 Early Look

LSU stunned previously unbeaten Georgia, as QB Joe Burrow and company jumps to #5 in the AP Poll.

What a weekend in College Football to say the least!  Upsets everywhere, statement victories, and late game drama made for an exciting Saturday from start to finish.  There was a ton to digest and we are ready to take an early look to next week as lines start to release.  Tune in later in the week (usually Thursday night) for my top plays for the weekend as well as all the action I have for the weekend.

AP Top 25

1. Alabama 7-0

2. Ohio State 7-0 (+1)

3. Clemson 6-0 (+1)

4. Notre Dame 7-0 (+1)

5. LSU 6-1 (+8)

6. Michigan 6-1 (+6)

7. Texas 6-1 (+2)

8. Georgia 6-1 (-6)

9. Oklahoma 5-1 (+2)

10. UCF 6-0

11. Florida 6-1 (+3)

12. Oregon 5-1 (+5)

13. West Virginia 5-1 (-7)

14. Kentucky 5-1 (+4)

15. Washington 5-2 (-8)

16. NC State 5-0 (+4)

17. Texas A&M 5-2 (+5)

18. Penn State 4-2 (-10)

19. Iowa 5-1 (NR)

20. Cincinnati 6-0 (+5)

21. USF 6-0 (+2)

22. Mississippi State 4-2 (+2)

23. Wisconsin 4-2 (-8)

24. Michigan State 4-2 (NR)

25. Washington State 5-1 (NR)

Dropped Out: #16 Miami (FL), #19 Colorado, #21 Auburn

Others Receiving Votes: Stanford 71, USC 53, San Diego State 53, Appalachian State 51, Colorado 49, Miami (FL) 38, Utah State 38, Utah 33, Duke 17, Texas Tech 8, Fresno State 7, Houston 3, Virginia 2, Maryland 2

National Championship Odds

Note: Odds are as of 10/15 from BetOnline and the playoff projection percent comes from FiveThirtyEight.com.

AP	Team	Rec	Odds	Playoff %
1	Alabama	7-0	2/3	65%
2	Ohio State	7-0	9/2	52%
3	Clemson	6-0	9/2	66%
4	Notre Dame	7-0	10/1	50%
5	LSU	6-1	33/1	13%
6	Michigan	6-1	16/1	16%
7	Texas	6-1	25/1	15%
8	Georgia	6-1	16/1	22%
9	Oklahoma	5-1	33/1	23%
10	UCF	6-0	40/1	4%
11	Florida	6-1	50/1	10%
12	Oregon	5-1	150/1	6%
13	West Virginia	5-1	100/1	6%
14	Kentucky	5-1	-	5%
15	Washington	5-2	100/1	8%
16	NC State	5-0	-	7%
17	Texas A&M	5-2	150/1	1%
18	Penn State	4-2	100/1	2%
19	Iowa	5-1	-	6%
20	Cincinnati	6-0	250/1	<1%
21	USF	6-0	150/1	<1%
22	Mississippi State	4-2	-	1%
23	Wisconsin	4-2	100/1	2%
24	Michigan State	4-2	100/1	3%
25	Washington State	5-1	-	3%

Plays Locked In Already

• Arkansas -6 vs. Tulsa
• Arkansas has played a tough schedule and will be hungry for a victory against Tulsa who has struggled late in games and rank outside the S&P+ top 100 in offense.
• North Carolina +11 @ Syracuse
• North Carolina has been unlucky thus far this season and has looked better than its 1-4 record.  I have this game around +7.
• Michigan -5 @ Michigan State
• Wanted to get ahead of the market, as everyone will be on Michigan this week.  The line has already moved to -7.  There might be some steam that puts this number at -7.5 or even -8 later in the week.  This will be a tough game for Michigan as Michigan State dirties up games and are coming off the upset in Happy Valley against Penn State.
• Mississippi State +7 @ LSU
• Mississippi State is off a bye and faced an LSU team off a huge win over Georgia.  If Mississippi State can establish their run game and Nick Fitzgerald plays to the potential he's shown in the past, I expect this game to be tight and have it closer to LSU -3.
• Texas State +12 @ ULM
• There is no reason that ULM should be favored by double digits in any game they play this season.  Texas State made a switch at QB and it looks like it is working as they covered against Georgia Southern last week.

Week 8 Slate

Note: Against the Spread Records are based on Vegas' closing number

Note: Some teams had games against very low level FCS or DII schools and there were no spreads available for that game

Thursday, October 18

Georgia State 2-4 (1-1) @ Arkansas State 3-3 (0-2)

Spread: Arkansas State -14

Model: Arkansas State -13.68

ATS: GAST 2-3-1, ARST 1-5

Stanford 4-2 (2-1) @ Arizona State 3-3 (1-2)

Spread: Stanford -2

Model: Stanford -3.68

ATS: STAN 3-3, ASU 4-2

Friday, October 19

Colorado State 3-4 (2-1) @ Boise State 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: Boise State -24

Model: Boise State -21.54

ATS: CSU 3-3, BSU 3-3

Air Force 2-4 (0-3) @ UNLV 2-4 (0-2)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: Air Force -9.79

ATS: AFA 4-2, UNLV 3-3

Saturday, October 20

#6 Michigan 6-1 (4-0) @ #24 Michigan State 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: Michigan -6.5

Model: Michigan -8.13

ATS: MICH 4-3, MSU 2-4

#9 Oklahoma 5-1 (2-1) @ TCU 3-3 (1-2)

Spread: Oklahoma -7.5

Model: Oklahoma -6.74

ATS: OU 2-4, TCU 2-4

Maryland 4-2 (2-1) @ #19 Iowa 5-2 (2-1)

Spread: Iowa -12.5

Model: Iowa -8.04

ATS: MD 4-2, IOWA 5-1

#20 Cincinnati 6-0 (2-0) @ Temple 4-3 (3-0)

Spread: Temple -3

Model: Temple -5.61

ATS: TEM 5-2, CIN 5-1

Illinois 3-3 (1-2) @ #23 Wisconsin 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: Wisconsin -26

Model: Wisconsin -23.1

ATS: ILL 3-3, WIS 1-5

Buffalo 6-1 (3-0) @ Toledo 3-3 (1-1)

Spread: Toledo -2.5

Model: Toledo -4.77

ATS: BUFF 5-2, TOL 2-4

Tulsa 1-5 @ Arkansas 1-6

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: Arkansas -5.74

ATS: TLSA 3-3, ARK 3-3-1

Auburn 4-3 (1-3) @ Mississippi 5-2 (1-2)

Spread: Auburn -3

Model: Auburn -6.43

ATS: AUB 2-5, MISS 3-4

Northwestern 3-3 (3-1) @ Rutgers 1-6 (0-4)

Spread: Northwestern -21

Model: Northwestern -19.38

ATS: NW 3-2-1, RUT 2-5

Miami (OH) 3-4 @ Army 4-2

Spread: Army -10.5

Model: Army -10.35

ATS: MI-OH 4-3, ARMY 4-1-1

North Carolina 1-4 (1-2) @ Syracuse 4-2 (1-2)

Spread: Syracuse -11

Model: Syracuse -7.22

ATS: UNC 2-2-1, SYR 4-1-1

Virginia 4-2 (2-1) @ Duke 5-1 (1-1)

Spread: Duke -8

Model: Duke -5.83

ATS: UVA 5-1, DUKE 4-2

Idaho State 4-2 @ Liberty 3-3

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: FBS vs. FCS (No Line)

ATS: LIB 3-3

Bowling Green 1-6 (0-3) @ Ohio 3-3 (1-1)

Spread: Ohio -16.5

Model: Ohio -15.19

ATS: BOWL 3-4, OHIO 3-3

Utah State 5-1 (2-0) @ Wyoming 2-5 (0-3)

Spread: Utah State -14.5

Model: Utah State -12.34

ATS: USU 6-0, WYO 1-6

Florida Atlantic 3-3 (1-1) @ Marshall 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: Florida Atlantic -0.65

ATS: FAU 1-5, MRSH 2-4

Charlotte 3-3 (2-1) @ Middle Tennessee 3-3 (2-1)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: Middle Tennessee -17

ATS: CHAR 3-3, MTSU 3-3

Eastern Michigan 3-4 (1-3) @ Ball State 3-4 (2-1)

Spread: Eastern Michigan -3.5

Model: Eastern Michigan -4.41

ATS: EMU 5-2, BALL 4-3

Western Michigan 5-2 (3-0) @ Central Michigan 1-6 (0-3)

Spread: Western Michigan -4.5

Model: Western Michigan -5.97

ATS: WMU 2-5, CMU 3-3

#1 Alabama 7-0 (4-0) @ Tennessee 3-3 (1-2)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: Alabama -29.18

ATS: BAMA 4-3, TENN 3-3

#16 NC State 5-0 (2-0) @ #3 Clemson 6-0 (3-0)

Spread: Clemson -17

Model: Clemson -18.4

ATS: NCST 3-2, CLEM 2-4

Colorado 5-1 (2-1) @ #15 Washington 5-2 (3-1)

Spread: Washington -17

Model: Washington -15.99

ATS: COLO 4-2, WASH 2-5

#18 Penn State 4-2 (1-2) @ Indiana 4-3 (1-3)

Spread: Penn State -14

Model: Penn State -14.86

ATS: PSU 4-2, IU 2-5

Coastal Carolina 3-3 @ UMass 2-5

Spread: UMass -3.5

Model: UMass -2.09

ATS: CC 3-3, MASS 2-5

Houston 5-1 (2-0) @ Navy 2-4 (1-2)

Spread: Houston -12.5

Model: Houston -10.56

ATS: HOU 3-3, NAVY 1-5

SMU 2-4 (1-1) @ Tulane 2-4 (1-1)

Spread: Tulane -7.5

Model: Tulane -6.98

ATS: SMU 2-3, TULN 3-3

Akron 2-3 (0-2) @ Kent State 1-6 (0-3)

Spread: Akron -4

Model: Akron -1.44

ATS: AKR 2-3, KENT 4-3

Louisiana 3-3 (1-1) @ Appalachian State 4-1 (2-0)

Spread: Appalachian State -24

Model: Appalachian State -20.91

ATS: ULL 4-2, APP 4-0

UTEP 0-6 (0-2) @ Louisiana Tech 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: Louisiana Tech -26.5

Model: Louisiana Tech -25.95

ATS: UTEP 3-3, LT 4-2

Wake Forest 3-3 (0-2) @ Florida State 3-3 (1-3)

Spread: Florida State -10.5

Model: Florida State -5.29

ATS: WF 1-5, FSU 2-4

Minnesota 3-3 (0-3) @ Nebraska 0-6 (0-4)

Spread: Nebraska -4

Model: Nebraska -2.48

ATS: MINN 4-2, NEB 1-4-1

Kansas 2-4 (0-3) @ Texas Tech 4-2 (2-1)

Spread: Texas Tech -20.5

Model: Texas Tech -18.5

ATS: KU 3-3, TTU 4-2

Memphis 4-3 @ Missouri 3-3

Spread: Missouri -8

Model: Missouri -3.64

ATS: MEM 4-3, MIZ 3-3

California 3-3 (0-3) @ Oregon State 1-5 (0-3)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: California -11.51

ATS: CAL 1-4-1, ORST 2-4

Georgia Southern 5-1 @ New Mexico State 2-5

Spread: Georgia Southern -13

Model: Georgia Southern -13.42

ATS: GASO 5-1, NMST 2-5

#22 Mississippi State 4-2 (1-2) @ #5 LSU 6-1 (3-1)

Spread: LSU -6.5

Model: LSU -5.88

ATS: MSST 4-2, LSU 4-3

#10 UCF 6-0 (3-0) @ East Carolina 2-4 (0-3)

Spread: UCF -23

Model: UCF -21.83

ATS: UCF 4-2, ECU 2-4

UConn 1-5 (0-3) @ #21 USF 6-0 (2-0)

Spread: USF -32.5

Model: USF -29.85

ATS: UCONN 0-5-1, USF 2-4

UTSA 3-4 (2-1) @ Southern Mississippi 2-3 (1-1)

Spread: Southern Miss -17.5

Model: Southern Miss -13.89

ATS: UTSA 1-5-1, SOMS 3-2

Texas State 1-5 (0-3) @ ULM 3-4 (1-2)

Spread: ULM -11.5

Model: ULM -6.23

ATS: TXST 2-3-1, ULM 2-5

#2 Ohio State 7-0 (4-0) @ Purdue 3-3 (2-1)

Spread: Ohio State -13.5

Model: Ohio State -17.53

ATS: OSU 3-4, PUR 4-2

#12 Oregon 5-1 (2-1) @ #25 Washington State 5-1 (2-1)

Spread: Oregon -1.5

Model: Washington State -3.06

ATS: ORE 2-4, WSU 6-0

Vanderbilt 3-4 (0-3) @ #14 Kentucky 5-1 (3-1)

Spread: Kentucky -10.5

Model: Kentucky -8.25

ATS: VAN 3-4, UK 3-3

Fresno State 5-1 (2-0) @ New Mexico 3-3 (1-1)

Spread: Fresno State -14.5

Model: Fresno State -17.19

ATS: FRES 5-1, NM 3-3

Rice 1-6 (0-3) @ FIU 4-2 (2-0)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: FIU -16.25

ATS: RICE 2-5, FIU 5-0

North Texas 6-1 (2-1) @ UAB 5-1 (3-0)

Spread: UAB -1

Model: UAB -1.18

ATS: NT 4-3, UAB 5-1

Old Dominion 1-6 (0-4) @ Western Kentucky 1-5 (0-2)

Spread: Western Kentucky -5

Model: Western Kentucky -5.08

ATS: ODU 2-5, WKU 4-2

USC 4-2 (3-1) @ Utah 4-2 (2-2)

Spread: Utah -6.5

Model: Utah -5.15

ATS: USC 2-4, Utah 3-3

Arizona 3-4 (2-2) @ UCLA 1-5 (1-2)

Spread: No Line Yet

Model: UCLA -2.15

ATS: ARIZ 3-4, UCLA 3-3

San Jose State 0-6 (0-2) @ San Diego State 5-1 (2-0)

Spread: San Diego State -27

Model: San Diego State -23.06

ATS: SJSU 2-4, SDSU 2-4

Nevada 3-4 (1-2) @ Hawaii 6-2 (3-0)

Spread: Hawaii -3.5

Model: Nevada -2.98

ATS: NEV 3-4, HAW 3-3-1