CFB Week 7 Early Look

Cam Dicker hit a 40 yard field goal to lift Texas over rival Oklahoma

Dogs were barking as several big underdogs won outright on Saturday.

• UAB (+7) over Louisiana Tech 28-7
• #19 Texas (+7.5) over #7 Oklahoma 48-45
• New Mexico (+9) over UNLV 50-14
• Northwestern (+10.5) over #20 Michigan State 29-19
• Iowa State (+10.5) over #25 Oklahoma State 48-42
• San Diego State (+13) over Boise State 19-13

I had a very good week as I was high on UAB, Texas, and Iowa State; having moneyline wagers on all three as well as spread wagers.  My "Trusty Treble" went 3-0 for the second straight week and improved the column's record to 10-2.  Keep a look out for this week's column that usually is posted on Friday.  

For my early look articles, I like to take a look at the upcoming slate and identify any key situational spots or stats that are of note.  I really like targeting "hangover" situations as it is a profitable trend.  Florida traveling to Vanderbilt is a spot I'm looking to possibly target coming off a huge win against LSU.

AP Top 25 Poll

1. Alabama 6-0

2. Georgia 6-0

3. Ohio State 6-0

4. Clemson 6-0

5. Notre Dame 6-0 (+1)

6. West Virginia 5-0 (+3)

7. Washington 5-1 (+3)

8. Penn State 4-1 (+3)

9. Texas 5-1 (+10)

10. UCF 5-0 (+2)

11. Oklahoma 5-1 (-4)

12. Michigan 5-1 (+3)

13. LSU 5-1 (-8)

14. Florida 5-1 (+8)

15. Wisconsin 4-1 (+1)

16. Miami (FL) 5-1 (+1)

17. Oregon 4-1 (+1)

18. Kentucky 5-1 (-5)

19. Colorado 5-0 (+2)

20. NC State 5-0 (+3)

21. Auburn 4-2 (-13)

22. Texas A&M 4-2 (NR)

23. USF 5-0 (NR)

24. Mississippi State 4-2 (NR)

25. Cincinnati 6-0 (NR)

Others receiving votes: Iowa 87, Stanford 59, Washington State 46, San Diego State 24,

TCU 20, Appalachian State 11, Utah 9, Utah State 5, South Carolina 2, Hawaii 1

Situations to Monitor

• Hangover Situations
• Florida travels to Vanderbilt after the huge underdog win against LSU.  Florida also has a bye after this week's game.
• Texas hosts Baylor after a win in the Red River Showdown against rival Oklahoma.  
• Lookahead Situation
• UAB upset Louisiana Tech to take a stranglehold in the Conference USA West division and they face lowly Rice this week.  They play North Texas next week in a game that could possibly decide the division and this game against Rice is a definite lookahead spot.
• Interesting Situation
• Duke is off a bye and travels to play Georgia Tech this week.  Duke played Army in Week 1, so they already have game experience against the triple option this year.
• Back-to-Back Away Games
• Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, South Florida, UAB, and Wyoming
• Off a Bye
• Army, Charlotte, Duke, North Carolina, Penn State, Purdue, Southern Miss, TCU, Tennessee, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia, and Western Kentucky

My Early Plays

BetOnline posts spreads around 3:00 on Sunday's for the following week of College Football.  They have soft openers that change very quickly and I like to make 0.5 unit plays on spreads that I think will move in the upcoming days.  Here are the plays I have where the spread did not match my model or I felt that the line would move very quickly the opposite way.

• Oregon +4 vs. Washington
• I have Oregon favored at home in this matchup and am higher on the Ducks than the market
• Arkansas State +8 vs. Appalachian State
• I like Arkansas State +7.5 or more against App State
• Virginia +7.5 vs. Miami (FL)
• Virginia is off a bye and ranks #8 in havoc on defense.  Redshirt Freshman QB N'Kosi Perry will be under pressure all game where Florida State forced two fumbles last week.
• Texas State +17 vs. Georgia Southern
• I have this being around a 10 point spread.  I will take the touchdown value.
• Buffalo -10.5 vs. Akron
• There is value on this number as I have it closer to 17.
• Wisconsin +8 @ Michigan
• I have Michigan winning this game, but anything over the key number of 7 is value on the Wisconsin side.  It has since been bet down to +6.5 on the Wisconsin side.

Week 7 Matchups

Note: Some lines have not been posted yet

Tuesday, October 9

Appalachian State (-7.5) @ Arkansas State

Model: Appalachian State -2.32

Thursday, October 11

Georgia Southern (-17.5) @ Texas State

Model: Georgia Southern -7.45

Texas Tech @ TCU (-8.5)

Model: TCU -7.26

Friday, October 12

#23 USF (-14) @ Tulsa
Model: USF -8.13

Air Force @ San Diego State (-9.5)
Model: San Diego State -10.56

Arizona @ Utah (-14)
Model: Utah -14.15

Saturday, October 13

Minnesota @ #3 Ohio State (-29.5)

Model: Ohio State -28.17

Tennessee @ #21 Auburn (-18)

Model: Auburn -18.56

#14 Florida (-8) @ Vanderbilt

Model: Florida -7.01

Oklahoma State (-7.5) @ Kansas State

Model: Oklahoma State -8.96

Rutgers @ Maryland (-23)

Model: Maryland -18.24

Iowa (-6) @ Indiana

Model: Iowa -5.36

Nebraska @ Northwestern (-9)

Model: Northwestern -5.21

Akron @ Buffalo (-9)

Model: Buffalo -16.97

Toledo (-5.5) @ Eastern Michigan

Model: Toledo -2.96

Duke @ Georgia Tech (-3)

Model: Georgia Tech -3.49

Louisville @ Boston College (-15)

Model: Boston College -14.27

UAB (-16) @ Rice

Model: UAB -14

Troy @ Liberty

Model: Troy -9.67

Southern Miss @ North Texas (-8.5)

Model: North Texas -8.77

Pittsburgh @ #5 Notre Dame (-21)

Model: Notre Dame -22.33

Kent State @ Miami (OH) (-12.5)

Model: Miami (OH) -9.3

Western Michigan (-15.5) @ Bowling Green

Model: Western Michigan -10.53

Ball State @ Central Michigan (PK)

Model: Central Michigan -1.03

#2 Georgia (-7) @ #13 LSU

Model: Georgia -10.62

#7 Washington (-3.5) @ #17 Oregon

Model: Oregon -5.86

Michigan State @ #8 Penn State (-14)

Model: Penn State -12.88

#10 UCF (-4) @ Memphis 

Model: UCF -4.32

Baylor @ #9 Texas (-17)

Model: Texas -15.23

Ohio @ Northern Illinois (-4)

Model: Northern Illinois -5.07

Temple (-4.5) @ Navy

Model: Temple -3.06

Western Kentucky (-9.5) @ Charlotte

Model: Western Kentucky -12.25

Marshall @ Old Dominion

Model: Marshall -7.66

Army (-17) @ San Jose State

Model: Army -16.32

Purdue (-10) @ Illinois

Model: Purdue -10.81

#22 Texas A&M @ South Carolina

Model: Texas A&M -2.42

New Mexico @ Colorado State (-1)

Model: Colorado State -1.32

UNLV @ Utah State (-23.5)

Model: Utah State -20.59

Alabama State @ South Alabama

Model: FBS/FCS Matchup

New Mexico State @ Louisiana (-8)

Model: Louisiana -5.88

ULM @ Coastal Carolina (-5.5)

Model: ULM -0.67

Missouri @ #1 Alabama (-28)

Model: Alabama -22.3

#6 West Virginia (-4.5) @ Iowa State

Model: West Virginia -4.63

#16 Miami (FL) (-7) @ Virginia

Model: Miami (FL) -6.53

Virginia Tech (-6) @ North Carolina

Model: Virginia Tech -9.2

Houston (-16.5) @ East Carolina

Model: Houston -16.33

Louisiana Tech (-11.5) @ UTSA

Model: Louisiana Tech -13.78

UCLA @ California (-7.5)

Model: California -12.83

#15 Wisconsin @ #12 Michigan (-6.5)

Model: Michigan -6.28

Mississippi (-5.5) @ Arkansas (War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, AR)

Model: Mississippi -5.26

Middle Tennessee @ FIU (-2.5)

Model: Middle Tennessee -6.25

Hawaii @ BYU (-8)

Model: BYU -15.2

#19 Colorado @ USC (-7)

Model: USC -4.73

Wyoming @ Fresno State (-19.5)

Model: Fresno State -18.84

Boise State (-20) @ Nevada

Model: Boise State -17.14

If you made it all the way to the end, I appreciate the read as always.  Follow me on Twitter @DekeMathews for updates on my blog and any plays I may make closer to kickoffs.