College Football Bowl Predictions
Before we jump into the breakdown of each bowl throughout the bowl season, I have an announcement to make. I appreciate everyone who reads my blog and everyone who has given me feedback over the last year or so. I am officially launching my new website www.dekessports.com and all of my future content will be posted there. I am excited to continue to write articles spanning all sports and can't wait to see what the future holds!
The College Football Playoff is set and bowl eligible teams know where they are heading for a bowl. I was hoping for a little bit of chaos, but neither Georgia or Memphis was unable to hold on to double digit leads. The article last week went 8-2 straight up including two underdog winners as my beloved UAB Dragons came through once again as did Fresno State in a snowy OT thriller.
Before the bowls kick off, I will have a short blurb for each bowl and provide a prediction. Bowls can be tough to cap as so many players sit out due to leaving for the draft and other injuries. If there are any serious injuries or players sitting out, I will note them in each write up.
As always follow me on the Action Network app @DekeMathews to see all of the ATS picks I make during bowl season.
Note: The ranking I give each team is based on my power rankings (except for the lone FCS matchup, which is the STATS FCS rankings). Also, the model spreads are what I predict the market should be or in which way the spreads will move. The model projections also don't take in consideration matchups.
December 15
Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl
#11 North Carolina A&T 9-2 vs. Alcorn State 9-3
Odds: NC A&T -7.5, O/U: 47
12:00, ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
This matchup is a rematch of the 2015 inaugural Celebration Bowl that North Carolina A&T won 41-34. This will be North Carolina A&T's third appearance (have been to three of the four) and Alcorn State's second appearance.
North Carolina A&T is coming off a perfect 12-0 season and although they lost some key players (and longtime Head Coach Rod Broadway), the Aggies wind up back in the Celebration Bowl. A&T started the season off with two huge victories against #6 ranked Jacksonville State and on the road at East Carolina defeating the FBS program 28-23. The Aggies stumbled twice losing to unranked Morgan State 16-13 and Florida A&M 22-21. They needed a Florida A&M loss in its final game against Bethune-Cookman to give them the conference championship with a win against NC Central. The Aggies defeated NC Central 45-0. Senior QB Lamar Raynard is the key player for the team and will be the difference maker in this game.
Alcorn State defeated Southern in the SWAC Championship Game 37-28 to advance to the Celebration Bowl. The Braves are led by Fred McNair (Steve's older brother) and were able to accumulate a 9-3 record after a 7-5 season last year that ended in the SWAC Championship Game. The three losses were all legitimate losses as they dropped two games to FBS teams (at Georgia Tech 41-0, at New Mexico State 52-42) and lost a five overtime thriller to Alabama State.
I think North Carolina A&T QB Lamar Reynard has the experience to lead the team to back-to-back Celebration Bowl Titles, as Alcorn State doesn't quite has the personnel to match up with the Aggies.
Prediction: North Carolina A&T 31-24
New Mexico Bowl
#31 Utah State 10-2 vs. #73 North Texas 9-3
Odds: Utah State -9, O/U: 67.5
Model: Utah State -7.5
2:00, ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium (Albuquerque, NM)
Utah State HC Matt Wells led the team to a very good season finishing 10-2 and just behind Boise State in the MWC Mountain Division. Prior to the season finale loss at Boise State, Utah State had ripped off ten straight wins after a close loss at Michigan State to open the year. The Aggies will be without Wells, who took the Texas Tech job after Kliff Kingsbury was fired.
North Texas also had a successful season sweeping its non-conference schedule including wins against SMU and at Arkansas. Conference losses to divisional rivals Louisiana Tech and UAB took them out of the race and a late loss at Old Dominion was definitely a letdown. QB Mason Fine threw for 3734 yards and a 27-4 TD-INT ratio. Fine was rumored to be transferring if HC Seth Littrell left for the Kansas State job. However, Littrell removed his name from consideration and it looks like Fine is staying put.
Both teams possess explosive offenses, but Utah State has the better defense overall and against explosiveness. Utah State is also much more efficient on offense and defense as they boast a top 20 offense and defense in terms of efficiency (Offense 11th, Defense 19th). Utah State Sophomore QB Jordan Love has had a phenomenal year and I have the Aggies getting the win in a shootout.
Prediction: Utah State 38-31
AutoNation Cure Bowl
#87 Tulane 6-6 vs. #101 Louisiana 7-6
Odds: Tulane -3.5, O/U: 59
Model: Tulane -4.5
2:30, CBSSN
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
This game is an in-state matchup and a rematch of the '13 New Orleans Bowl that Louisiana won 24-21. Tulane started the year off 2-5 before going 4-1 to close out the year and become bowl eligible. Former LSU QB Justin McMillan has filled in for the injured starting QB Jonathan Banks in the last four games and Banks is questionable for the bowl. There is an argument that even if Banks is healthy, McMillan could still be the guy as he's impressed going 68/136 for 1159 yards and a 9-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 233 yards (6.0 ypc) and four touchdowns. Tulane ranks #5 in Offensive IsoPPP (explosiveness) and will look to exploit Louisiana's 85th ranked Defensive IsoPPP.
Louisiana surprisingly represented the West in the Sun Belt title game after the entire division had a down year. Louisiana relies on its run game heavily and could have two 1000 yard rushers by the end of this game. The sophomore tandem of Trey Ragas (1141 yards, 8 TD) and Elijah Mitchell (951 yards, 12 TD) spearhead the attack. Even third string RB Raymond Calais has 713 yards and 6 TD. The Ragin' Cajuns rank #7 in Offensive IsoPPP and matchup well with Tulane's 113th ranked Defensive IsoPPP.
Both teams have explosive offenses, but Tulane's struggles on defense are mainly through the air. This Louisiana team relies on the ground game and that plays to Tulane's strength on defense (37th in S&P+ Rushing Defense). I think we see a rush-heavy game with a few big plays and Tulane coming out on top.
Prediction: Tulane 31-27
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
#30 Arizona State 7-5 vs. #34 Fresno State 11-2
Odds: Fresno State -4.5, O/U: 51.5
Model: Arizona State -0.5
3:30, ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
Coach Herm Edwards has done a solid job in his first campaign at Arizona State. The Sun Devils faced one of the toughest schedules in the country and still posted seven wins. Leading WR N'Keal Harry (73 Receptions for 1088 Yards and 9 TD) has already declared for the draft and will sit out the bowl game. That is a big loss for QB Manny Wilkins, but a loss I think they will be able to manage. RB Eric Benjamin has been stellar on the ground, rushing for 1524 yards and 15 TD.
MWC Champion Fresno State got by Boise State in OT in snowy conditions last weekend. They have had an extremely impressive season and S&P+ has them ranked #10 in the nation. Much of the Bulldogs' success is based on its defense. Fresno State has let up 16 or fewer points in nine of its 13 games. The success on defense has enabled them to give the offense good field position (#1 Defense in terms of field position). Senior QB Marcus McMaryion is the heart and soul of this team throwing for 3453 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions.
This is a game the power ratings differ from Vegas' spread. Fresno State has a great defense and the better record. However, Arizona State is used to playing solid hard-nosed defenses week in and week out. Herm Edwards is going to have his boys ready in an underdog situation, and I have them upsetting the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Arizona State 24-20
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
#80 Eastern Michigan 7-5 vs. #93 Georgia Southern 9-3
Odds: Eastern Michigan PK, O/U: 48
Model: Eastern Michigan -4
5:30, ESPN
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Eastern Michigan comes into the bowl winning five of its last six games. In the five wins, it was the defense coming up big (16.0 ppg allowed). They have a tricky test with Georgia Southern, as Georgia Southern uses an option attack. Eastern Michigan faced an option attack Week 9 against Army in which they lost 37-22. This game was sandwiched between two must-win conference games, so I'm willing to give them a pass on motivation. Since they have already game-planed for an option offense, they will do much better the second time around. The issue here is that Eastern Michigan's strong suit is defending the pass, not the run.
Georgia Southern surprised everyone when they defeated then-ranked #25 Appalachian State 34-14. At that point, they were huge favorites to win the division and represent the East in the Sun Belt Championship. They followed that great performance with back-to-back double digit losses at ULM and at home against Troy. For an option offense, Georgia Southern doesn't have great rushing statistics. They only rank #58 in S&P+ Rushing. What has carried them to nine wins is ball security. Georgia Southern ranks #1 in the nation in Expected Turnover Margin and Turnover Margin. Eastern Michigan also takes care of the ball and forces turnovers ranking 10th in the nation.
Eastern Michigan's second crack at the option offense will be vital in this contest. I expect a methodical game that comes down to the final few possessions. In the battle of the Eagles, I am taking Eastern Michigan to win a close one.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 24-21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
#59 Appalachian State 10-2 vs. #88 Middle Tennessee 8-5
Odds: Appalachian State -7.5, O/U: 50.5
Model: App State -8
9:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Sun Belt Champs Appalachian State make the trip to New Orleans to face Conference USA Runner-Up Middle Tennessee. After App State Starting RB Jalin Moore fractured his ankle, Darrynton Evans has filled in extremely well to the tune of 1079 yards rushing on the season. The Mountaineers boast a very balanced offense and a great defense against both the run and the pass (#8 S&P+ Rushing Defense and #4 S&P+ Passing Defense). They will have to be at their best against MTSU Senior QB (and coach's son) Brent Stockstill. Stockstill was named 1st Team All-Conference USA and has played very well this season (although I had Mason Fine of North Texas being 1st Team). Stockstill will play his last collegiate game for his father and I expect their to be some more tears after the game (see post C-USA Championship press conference).
Appalachian State's defense will be the key factor in this matchup. App State has allowed 10 or fewer points in seven games this season. I think they limit Stockstill and completely shut down the MTSU run game.
Prediction: Appalachian State 27-23
December 18
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
#70 UAB 10-3 vs. #76 Northern Illinois 8-5
Odds: UAB -1.5, O/U: 43.5
Model: UAB PK
7:00, ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, FL)
My Conference USA Champion UAB Blazers cashed a 25-1 future ticket for me with the win over Middle Tennessee. I have loved UAB all season if you have been keeping up with my Trusty Treble. This matchup is going to be must-watch TV only if you are a fan of defense. UAB has a terrific defense and pitched three shutouts this season. MAC Champ Northern Illinois ranks #15 in S&P+ Defense and has one of the best run defenses in the nation. This will not bode well for UAB as they rely heavily on RB Spencer Brown to get the job done on the ground.
On the flip side, Northern Illinois can't throw the ball at all and have a completely anemic offense. The offense showed they could come back against Buffalo, but that is the first sign of life we have really seen all season. UAB's defensive front should stuff the run and get pressure on QB Marcus Childers. Expect an extremely low scoring game and I have to stick with my UAB Dragons, although I really think this is anyone's game.
Prediction: UAB 20-17
DXL Frisco Bowl
#74 Ohio 8-4 vs. #75 San Diego State 7-5
Odds: Ohio -3, O/U: 54.5
Model: Ohio PK
8:00, ESPN
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)
Ohio comes into the bowl winners of five of their last six games and have scored 49+ points in each of the wins. They face a reeling San Diego State who limped to the finish, losing its last three games. The big matchup in this game is Ohio's offense against San Diego State's defense. The Bobcat offense is the fourth ranked offense in terms of efficiency in the nation. The Aztec defense ranks ninth in S&P+ rushing defense and 38th in S&P+ passing defense. Ohio boasts the third ranked S&P+ rushing offense led by RB A.J. Ouellette (1142 yards, 12 TD) and QB Nathan Rourke (961 yards, 13 TD).
Both Aztec QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington have missed some time this season due to injury, but are back and healthy again. Both players will need a huge games to keep pace will Ohio. I still see Ohio scoring points, even on San Diego State's stingy defense. Give me the Bobcats.
Prediction: Ohio 28-23
December 20
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
#81 Marshall 8-4 vs. #97 South Florida 7-5
Odds: Marshall -2.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Marshall -5
8:00, ESPN
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
I was on this Marshall team in the finale against Virginia Tech, as I thought they were the better team in almost every phase. The Thundering Herd didn't show up and were demolished by the Hokies and allowed them to get to a bowl. This is a new week and I expect to see a motivated Marshall team after the whoopin' they took to VT.
USF has been a fraud all season and the results finally caught up to them. They opened 7-0, but only had a 100% postgame win expectancy in one game (vs. Elon)! This included a home win against Georgia Tech 49-38, in which they only had postgame win expectancy of 24%. Down the stretch against better AAC competition, the Bulls lost the final five games on the schedule.
Most of the advanced metrics are fairly even between these two teams except for one major discrepancy. Marshall's defense ranks #12 in the nation in defensive efficiency and is in the top 35 in both rushing defense and passing defense. USF's 81st ranked rushing offense and 39th ranked passing offense is going to be in for a tough test. QB Blake Barnett is expected to be back from injury, but USF has six players who are questionable and five other players who are already ruled out. I think Marshall will bounce back and get to nine wins on the season.
Prediction: Marshall 29-24
December 21
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
#82 Toledo 7-5 vs. #96 FIU 8-4
Odds: Toledo -6, O/U: 68
Model: Toledo -5
12:30, ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
This is a matchup of two teams that have had opposite results this season. Toledo went 5-3 in MAC play for only the second time since 2010 that the Rockets have had three losses or more in conference play. FIU was a surprise contender in the Conference USA and really came out of nowhere. They didn't have great statistics in any department, as they were ranked in the middle of the FBS in basically all categories. They benefited from extreme turnover luck and a ton of luck in general over the season. The Golden Panthers had an expected turnover margin of -0.3, but had an actual turnover margin of +9. This turnover luck accounted for 3.9 points per game throughout the season. In terms of second order wins, FIU was a -1.1 and actually should have lost another game during the season.
This luck is going to stop when they play Toledo and regression is going to rear its ugly head. I give FIU a slight advantage on defense, but the offensive advantage is squarely for Toledo. Toledo is going to score at will in the game as they rank #22 in IsoPPP offense and 12th in S&P+ rushing offense. FIU ranks 114th in S&P+ rushing defense and are #94 in IsoPPP defense. Expect Toledo to have a field day on the ground and run all over FIU.
Prediction: Toledo 45-31
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
#52 BYU 6-6 vs. #98 Western Michigan 7-5
Odds: BYU -12.5, O/U: 48.5
Model: BYU -13
4:00, ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertson Stadium (Boise, ID)
BYU has had a season full of highs and lows and a lot of inconsistency. They have a pair of solid road victories against Arizona and Wisconsin early in the season. They also have looked lost against Northern Illinois (losing 7-6) and have had some tough losses to solid competition (@Boise State, vs. Utah State, vs. California, at Washington, at Utah). The defense is the bright spot on the team and keep an eye out for LB Sione Takitaki. Takitaki leads the team in tackles (82) and also has 8 tackles for loss. This is definitely a step down in competition facing Western Michigan.
Western Michigan had a six game winning streak against poor competition in the middle of the year, but showed its true self when playing better competition down the stretch. The Broncos lost at home against Ohio and Toledo, and surprisingly lost to lowly Ball State. Western Michigan ended the season on a winning note beating Northern Illinois who had already clinched the division and was without its top defender due to a bogus targeting in the second half.
Crazy things can happen in bowls, but I think BYU wins comfortably in this matchup. Western Michigan's offense is solid, but I believe BYU's defense will come to play.
Prediction: BYU 30-17
December 22
Jared Birmingham Bowl
#49 Memphis 8-5 vs. #66 Wake Forest 6-6
Odds: Memphis -5, O/U: 73.5
Model: Memphis -4
12:00, ESPN
Legion Field (Birmingham, AL)
Oh, Memphis how you've let me down again. Memphis for the second time this year held a double digit lead against UCF in the third quarter. At least they covered the spread in the first meeting only losing by 1. In the conference championship, the wheels fell off on offense and they couldn't move the chains in the second half, only scoring three points. Even though they couldn't get it done against UCF in the second half, the Memphis rushing offense has been elite this season. They are 4th in S&P+ rushing offense and #4 in IsoPPP offense. RB Darrell Henderson has amazingly ran for 1909 yards and 22 touchdowns on 8.9 yards per carry! Backup Patrick Taylor Jr. has rushed for 1012 as well in a complementary role.
Wake Forest is ranked 49th in S&P+ rushing defense and will definitely be tested. The mismatch will be in explosive plays. The Demon Deacons rank 82nd in IsoPPP defense and I see Memphis getting some big plays running the ball. WR Greg Dortch is a bright spot on offense and is one of the most electric players in all of college football. Keep an eye out for QB Sam Hartman to look early and often to Dortch (89 receptions, 1078 yards, and 8 touchdowns).
Prediction: Memphis 45-37
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
#69 Army 10-2 vs. #78 Houston 8-4
Odds: Army -3.5, O/U: 67.5
Model: Army -2
3:30, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, TX)
The big story in this matchup is who is not playing for Houston. Top 10 draft pick Ed Oliver isn't playing as well as QB D'Eriq King, who is still injured. Backup QB Clayton Tune has passed for 565 yards and 7 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions in relief, but only has a 44.7% completion percentage. Houston has gone up against an option offense once already this year, when they defeated Tulane 48-17. Army is a better team than Tulane, but it is a huge advantage that Houston has already faced an option attack and will have plenty of time to game plan.
Army continues to "just win." The Black Knights have two wins this year that they had less than a 50% postgame win expectancy, yet they still got the job done (Hawaii 8% & Air Force 9%). Army doesn't beat you by having more talent, they grind you out three yards at a time. What would surprise you is that they only rank 89th in S&P+ rushing offense.
Even without Oliver, I think Houston's defense limits Army's offense enough to force them into passing downs. If QB Clayton Tune can lead this offense on sustained drives, I actually like the Cougars to come out on top and upset Army.
Prediction: Houston 34-28
Dollar General Bowl
#71 Buffalo 10-3 vs. #83 Troy 9-3
Odds: Buffalo -2.5, O/U: 53.5
Model: Buffalo -2
7:00, ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, AL)
Buffalo and QB Tyree Jackson (2857 yards, 27-11 TD-INT) have surprised the masses en route to an appearance in the MAC Championship Game this season. The Bulls squandered a big lead and were unable stop Northern Illinois on its final possession. A huge issue with Jackson is his accuracy. After watching the last few games, Jackson's accuracy has been really inconsistent. He has made outstanding throws to WR Anthony Johnson (52 receptions, 944 yards, 11 TD) at times and then air mails his receiver the next throw by 15 yards. Tyree Jackson is going to come to play in this matchup as it could be the last game audition for him to show the NFL scouts what he can do. Although he is a junior, there are rumblings that he may test the draft waters. I expect Jackson to ball out in what could be his last game with the Bulls.
QB Caleb Barker being out for the season due to an ACL has been a big blow for Troy. Backup QB Sawyer Smith has filled in well at times, but is a definite downgrade at the position. Troy is going to need to put up some points to compete with Buffalo in this matchup. However, I think Buffalo's offense is going to give us a good performance to close out the season with an outstanding 11 win year.
Prediction: Buffalo 24-20
SoFi Hawaii Bowl
#94 Louisiana Tech 7-5 @ #107 Hawaii 8-5
Odds: Hawaii -2, O/U: 57.5
Model: Louisiana Tech -4.5
10:30, ESPN
Aloha Stadium (Honolulu, HI)
This will be a home game for Hawaii, where they were 5-2 on the season. The typical Hawaii advantage will be lessened as Louisiana Tech will have time to get acclimated. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald has been outstanding throwing for 3790 yards, 35 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Louisiana Tech's defense has been serviceable all season. The best part of that defense has been its secondary and play against the pass. Louisiana Tech ranks #49 in S&P+ passing defense and will be put to the test. Earlier in the season, the Bulldogs defeated North Texas on the road and held QB Mason Fine in check. I have Fine as a much better QB than McDonald and I feel Louisiana Tech can play some defense here. The only question is if they can score enough points on offense to get the victory. WR Adrian Hardy is the focal point of the offense as he has 69 receptions, 1052 yards, and 9 touchdowns on the season. I have Louisiana Tech coming back strong after a much needed few weeks off to pull off the upset on the island.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 34-31
December 26
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
#35 Boise State 10-3 vs. #36 Boston College 7-5
Odds: Boise State -3, O/U: 55
Model: Boise State PK
1:30, ESPN
Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX)
Boise State was unable to win on the blue turf in the MWC Championship against Fresno State. QB Brett Rypien is one of the best in the nation throwing for 3705 yards with a 30-7 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Alexander Mattison is a key cog to the offense as well, running for 1412 yards and 17 touchdowns. The offense is ranked 18th per S&P+ and will really test the Boston College defense.
Boston College has struggled down the stretch, losing its last three games. The defense is once again a strong point, but isn't the elite defense that we are used to at BC. The major factor in this cap is whether or not RB AJ Dillon plays. Dillon has rushed for 1108 yards and 10 touchdowns this season and is one of the best running backs in the nation when healthy. I think even if he does play, he won't be 100% and a motivated Boise State team will get its eleventh win.
Prediction: Boise State 29-24
Quick Lane Bowl
#40 Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. #63 Minnesota 6-6
Odds: Georgia Tech -4, O/U: 61
Model: Georgia Tech -6
5:15, ESPN
Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson will be coaching his final game for the Yellow Jackets. The option offense is tough to prepare for with only a few days to gameplan, but when you have several weeks of film study, defenses have more success in bowls. This matchup is fairly easy to cap as Minnesota has struggled with two things, consistency and explosive offenses. Georgia Tech ranks 113th in IsoPPP and rarely breaks big plays since they run an option attack.
Georgia Tech's defense has been torched through the air and rank 118th in nation in S&P+ passing defense. Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson is going to have a huge day (74 receptions, 1112 yards, 10 touchdowns). The last key factor that shades this game towards Minnesota, is Minnesota's stuff rate. Minnesota does a great job of getting a push and stopping the run early (rank #9 in the nation). This will be key in stopping the option.
Although my model has this line shaded to Georgia Tech -6, the matchup is not a good one for the Yellow Jackets. I think Minnesota not only covers the spread, but also wins the game outright.
Prediction: Minnesota 30-24
Cheez-It Bowl
#37 California 7-5 vs. #50 TCU 6-6
Odds: TCU PK, O/U: 40.5
Model: California -3
9:00, ESPN
Chase Field (Phoenix, AZ)
This game should be a low scoring affair pitting the #12 ranked S&P+ defense (California) against the #23 ranked S&P+ defense (TCU). The line is a pick'em right now and I am siding with my model and going with Cal. This game could go either way, but I like Cal's defense to force some turnovers and set its offense up for some good field position. Cal ranks #17 in Linebacker havoc and might have one of the best inside linebacking duos in the nation. Junior Evan Weaver (109.5 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks) and Senior Jordan Kunaszyk (108 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4 sacks) lead this defense that has only allowed 15.7 points per game over its last six games.
TCU got to bowl eligibility by defeating Baylor and Oklahoma State in the last two weeks of the season. I mentioned the havoc that Cal's linebackers produce and that will be huge in this matchup. TCU is 126th in the nation in expected turnover rate (only 130 FBS teams). Whether it is a fumble or an interception, Cal will force the Horned Frogs into turnovers that lead to points. The nail in the coffin for the Horned Frogs is that they could be without three key players on offense. QB Shawn Robinson and WR KaVontae Turpin are out for the year, and RB Darius Anderson is questionable. Give me the Golden Bears.
Prediction: California 23-16
December 27
Walk-On's Independence Bowl
#48 Duke 7-5 vs. #51 Temple 8-4
Odds: Temple -3, O/U: 56
Model: Duke -0.5
1:30, ESPN
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, LA)
Duke QB Daniel Jones is going to have his hands full as his Blue Devils take on Temple. Temple boasts the #1 ranked S&P+ passing defense and the #24 ranked overall defense. Duke's offense has looked horrendous in its last two outings (six points at Clemson and seven points vs. Wake Forest) and I expect the same struggles in this matchup.
Temple's starting QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead are both coming into this game banged up. Armstead has been upgraded to probable and Russo is questionable, as he missed the last game with a cast on his right hand. Temple didn't need Russo against lowly Connecticut as they defeated the Huskies 57-7. After starting the season 0-2 (including a home loss to Villanova), Temple really turned around its season and getting to eight wins is a real achievement. I like Temple's defense to make life hard for QB Daniel Jones and the offense to run the football well with Armstead.
Prediction: Temple 27-24
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
#23 Miami (FL) 7-5 vs. #29 Wisconsin 7-5
Odds: Miami (FL) -3.5, O/U: 47
Model: Miami (FL) -2
5:15, ESPN
Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)
Two of the most disappointing teams this season face off at Yankee Stadium in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. Miami is without its top receiver Jeff Thomas who was dismissed from the team in late November. This is a fairly easy cap as Miami is going to sell out to stop the run. Wisconsin cannot throw the ball whatsoever even after Starting QB Alex Hornibrook returned from injury. Miami's defense causes havoc and will force Wisconsin into passing situations and then bring the house with exotic blitz packages.
Wisconsin's star RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1989 yards and somehow topped his amazing freshman season (1977 yards). A trademark of Wisconsin team's is a strong defense and a steady rushing attack. This season, the defense has struggled especially in the last two games (at Purdue 47-44 win, Minnesota 37-15 loss). QB Hornibrook threw three interceptions against Minnesota totaling 11 on the season with only 13 touchdowns. Miami has the better defense and I think they will grind out a victory to salvage the season.
Prediction: Miami (FL) 24-17
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
#56 Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. #60 Baylor 6-6
Odds: Vanderbilt -4, O/U: 55
Model: Vanderbilt -1
9:00, ESPN
NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
Both of these teams come into the Texas Bowl, fortunate to be bowl eligible as they needed wins in each team's finale. Vanderbilt comes into the game winning three of its last four (at Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee). Vandy's best win is actually a home victory against Middle Tennessee in the opener. They have struggled against better competition and weren't able to pull off any real upsets.
Baylor has battled all season and Matt Rhule has them back to a bowl after a 1-11 season. I backed the Bears in the last Treble as a seven point underdog and they defeated Texas Tech to go bowling. I like Baylor again in this matchup as Vanderbilt has a huge issue with its defense. Vandy ranks 105th in the nation in S&P+ rushing defense and I like Baylor to have a big day on the ground. Baylor has a very efficient offense (35th) and has played very well against stiff competition throughout the grueling Big 12 schedule. Top WR Jalen Hurd is out due to injury and will definitely be missed in the passing game. I think the Bears get another upset and I will be backing them again.
Prediction: Baylor 27-24
December 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
#21 Auburn 7-5 vs. #27 Purdue 6-6
Odds: Auburn -4.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Auburn -1.5
1:30, ESPN
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
Auburn had high hopes for this season, especially after the neutral site victory over Washington in the opener. The Tigers dropped two games (LSU & Tennessee) in which they had above a 70% postgame win expectancy, which really could have changed its season. This game is a relatively easy cap as pretty much every Purdue game has been this season. Purdue exploits defenses that give up big plays due to explosiveness. Auburn ranks 105th in the nation in defending explosiveness and freshman sensation WR Rondale Moore is going to have a huge game (103 receptions, 1164 yards, 12 TD on the season). I think this Purdue team is going to be fired up with HC Jeff Brohm staying at the school, when he was linked to the Louisville job (his alma mater). I think Auburn is in a similar situation as last year with the bowl (UCF loss) as motivation isn't going to be at an all-time high playing for the Music City Bowl. Give me Purdue with the points and expect to see Rondale Moore breaking multiple long touchdowns.
Prediction: Purdue 31-27
Camping World Bowl
#9 West Virginia 8-3 vs. #32 Syracuse 9-3
Odds: West Virginia -1.5, O/U: 69
Model: West Virginia -2 (without Grier)
5:15, ESPN
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
A huge swing in the spread as the news that West Virginia QB Will Grier was going to sit out this game. This game opened at WVU -7.5 and has since been moved to WVU -1.5. Along with Will Grier, starting LT Yodny Cajuste will also skip the game. Backup QB Jack Allison is a transfer from Miami and has been at West Virginia for two seasons. He's only thrown 10 passes in his career, but was a highly touted recruit cracking the ESPN 300.
Syracuse dual-threat QB Eric Dungey will be playing in his last collegiate game. He's had an amazing year throwing for 2565 yards, rushing for 871 yards, and 32 total touchdowns. Syracuse now has a huge advantage at the quarterback position and I like their chances here. Watch for Syracuse's #1 ranked Special Teams unit. Whether it is field position or big plays, they make an impact in every game. As soon as the Will Grier news came out, I hopped on Syracuse +2.5 and like them outright as well.
Prediction: Syracuse 38-30
Valero Alamo Bowl
#19 Washington State 10-2 vs. #22 Iowa State 8-4
Odds: Washington State -3.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Washington State -1
9:00, ESPN
Alamodome (San Antonio, TX)
Washington State was picked by most to finish next to last in its division this season. HC Mike Leach has defied expectations as the Cougars fell just short of the division title. Transfer QB Gardner Minshew II was unbelievable throwing for 4477 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He was able to do so, because of the offensive line giving him plenty of time to find an open receiver. The offensive line ranked #1 in the nation in sack rate.
Iowa State is coming off a victory against Drake 27-24, which was a game they had nothing to play for. The public is backing the Cougars and using that recency bias. Here is why I actually like Iowa State in this matchup. Iowa State can be beaten on the ground, but are a great defense against the pass. The cyclones are the 23rd ranked defense against the pass and have put together some amazing performances in the pass heavy Big 12. In a blowout win against West Virginia, they held Will Grier to only 100 yards passing and one touchdown. This was by far the worst game for Will Grier all season. If they can get some pressure to Minshew, he will be rushed and forced into mistakes that this defense will capitalize on.
Prediction: Iowa State 31-27
December 29
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
#5 Michigan 10-2 vs. #12 Florida 9-3
Odds: Michigan -7.5, O/U: 51
Model: Michigan -7.5
12:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Michigan comes into this game off of the embarrassing blowout loss to Ohio State 62-39. D-Lineman Rashan Gary will sit out this game and LB Devin Bush is questionable to play. The Wolverines played several games without Gary and I honestly don't think they will miss him nearly as much as they would Bush, if he doesn't play.
Florida is coming off a rivalry game demolition of Florida State in Tallahassee. The Gators beat the Noles 41-14 to finally get a victory over their arch rival. Florida doesn't have a ton of elite playmakers, but are solid in every aspect.
I don't expect to see a ton of offense in this matchup, but Michigan definitely has the advantage. The weakest part of Florida's defense is stopping the run, which Michigan wants to establish early and often. I think DC Don Brown will have the defense rearing to go and get the bad taste of the Horseshoe out of their mouths.
Prediction: Michigan 27-19
Belk Bowl
#25 South Carolina 7-5 vs. #46 Virginia 7-5
Odds: South Carolina -4, O/U: 54.5
Model: South Carolina -4.5
12:00, ABC
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
The big news for the Gamecocks is the absence of WR Deebo Samuel as he will be entering the draft. Samuel was a huge weapon for QB Jake Bentley tallying 62 catches for 882 yards and 11 touchdowns. The South Carolina offense is really going to miss him against Virginia's talented cornerbacks.
Virginia has struggled lately against teams that run the football. Going 1-3 down the stretch with losses to Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech (all run heavy teams) exposed Virginia's defense. They are very solid in the passing game with elite cornerbacks. CB Bryce Hall has been an absolute monster this year with 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 20 passes defended! With South Carolina already down Samuel, I think Jake Bentley is going to struggle against this defense that relies on havoc. I'm not worried about the run from South Carolina as they rank just 71st in rushing S&P+.
I like Virginia in this matchup if QB Bryce Perkins continues to play well. Perkins has thrown for 2472 yards and rushed for 1038 yards on the season and should be poised for a big game. Give me the Cavaliers with the points, and a chance at the outright victory.
Prediction: Virginia 27-24
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
#77 Nevada 7-5 vs. #90 Arkansas State 8-4
Odds: Arkansas State -1, O/U: 59.5
Model: Nevada -4
1:15, CBSSN
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, AZ)
I really thought at the beginning of the season that Arkansas State was the class of the Sun Belt this season. With QB Justice Hansen back, I was expecting a big season from the Red Wolves. The losses as the year comes to an end aren't horrible (at Alabama, at Georgia Southern, App State, and at Louisiana), but I still feel disappointed about this team's season. They have a balanced offense ranking #59 in rushing and #69 in passing.
When taking a deeper dive into Nevada, I have to agree with my model's spread. They have an average offense, the #16 rushing defense, and are a top 25 team in terms of explosiveness. Arkansas State ranks 116th in defending explosiveness and I think QB Ty Gangi (3131 yards, 23 touchdowns) will have a big day. I am taking another underdog and riding with the Wolfpack in the battle of the Wolves.
Prediction: Nevada 34-31
CFB Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
#2 Clemson 13-0 vs. #6 Notre Dame 12-0
Odds: Clemson -11.5, O/U: 55
Model: Clemson -10
4:00, ESPN
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
The opening playoff game pits Clemson (who I have a future on to win the title from before the season) against one of the bigger surprise teams in Notre Dame. Ideally this would have been the ACC Championship if I had things my way. I really wish Notre Dame would join the ACC in football since they already did in basketball. They already played five ACC teams during the season and I just think it makes so much more sense than playing an Independent schedule.
Notre Dame comes into this game undefeated, even though they've had a less than 50% postgame win expectancy in two games (Michigan 39%, Vanderbilt 46%). QB Ian Book has been a revelation replacing Brandon Wimbush. Book has a 70.4% completion percentage to go along with 2468 yards, 19 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. Notre Dame's biggest strength is its defense. The Irish have the #4 ranked defense according to S&P+ and they are also 4th in limiting explosiveness. CB Julian Love is one of the best corners in the nation and I have him projected as a first round pick next year (52.5 tackles, 1 interception, and 15 passes defended). The senior linebacking duo of Te'von Coney (83 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) and Drue Tranquill (65.5 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) are amongst the best in the nation as well.
Clemson has the #1 defense in the nation and a potent offense as well now that freshman QB Trevor Lawrence has taken over. Lawrence has thrown for 2606 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only four interceptions on the season. RB Travis Etienne has rushed for 1463 yards and 21 touchdowns to anchor the run game. Clemson's balanced attack is vital in this game if they want to put up points on this Notre Dame defense.
The front four on defense is just unfair and it still amazes me that they all returned this season. DE Clelin Ferrell (35.5 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks) leads this front that simply denies the run. I really like this Clemson team and although they haven't really been through adversity this year, they are hungry and want another shot at Alabama. I have this as a low scoring game, but actually like Notre Dame to cover the spread.
Prediction: Clemson 24-14
CFB Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
#1 Alabama 13-0 vs. #4 Oklahoma 12-1
Odds: Alabama -14, O/U: 79
Model: Alabama -11
8:00, ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Heisman winning QB Kyler Murray (4046 yards, 40 touchdowns, seven interceptions) leads Oklahoma against runner-up QB Tua Tagovailoa (3353 yards, 37 touchdowns, four interceptions) in the second playoff game. There's a lot to love about this Oklahoma offense, but almost nothing to love about it's defense. Tua is going to have a field day against this 91st ranked passing defense and I can see Alabama scoring points on every single drive barring turnovers. Sophomore WR Jerry Jeudy is going to feast on a weak secondary and blow open some big plays.
On the defensive side of the ball, Alabama has freaks everywhere and continues to pump out talent each year. DL Quinnen Williams (18 tackles for loss) had some Heisman votes and is a matchup nightmare. The play of true freshman DB Patrick Surtain II has been outstanding as well and I have him projected as a surefire top 10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The composure he shows is unheard of as a freshman (see Trevor Lawrence as well) and I love watching this kid play. Oklahoma's offense is still going to score points, but they will have to grind out some tough drives whereas Alabama should score with ease. I like Alabama to get back to the title and reignite the rivalry with Clemson.
Prediction: Alabama 49-35
December 31
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
#54 Cincinnati 10-2 vs. #67 Virginia Tech 6-6
Odds: Cincinnati -6, O/U: 53.5
Model: Cincinnati -4.5
12:00, ESPN
Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
Cincinnati really came out of nowhere this year to have a great season and get to double digit wins. Virginia Tech on the other hand had a disastrous season in which they barely got to six wins and bowl eligibility. When you look at advanced metrics, Virginia Tech has been a fraud all season. In two wins this season, they had 30% or lower postgame win expectancy (UNC 24%, Virginia 30%). The defense has been horrendous at 79th in the nation, which is unheard of for a Virginia Tech team. They have had some internal turmoil and defensive starters leave the program, as well as some injuries to key players.
Cincinnati's offense has struggled at times, but the defense always seems to pick up the slack. Ranked 19th in S&P+ defense, this Bearcat team is something special. Another key is the havoc they force on defense. Cincinnati ranks 15th in overall havoc which has led to opposing turnovers and I expect more of the same in this matchup. I have Cincinnati's offense doing just enough to get a victory with some solid defensive play.
Prediction: Cincinnati 27-23
Hyundai Sun Bowl
#16 Stanford 8-4 vs. #42 Pittsburgh 7-6
Odds: Stanford -6.5, O/U: 52.5
Model: Stanford -7
2:00, CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, TX)
Pittsburgh is a very simple team to cap as they rely on the running game and feast on teams with a poor rushing defense. Stanford has a middle of the road rushing defense at 66th in the nation and will be put to the test in this matchup. Pitt's two headed rushing attack with seniors Qadree Ollison (1190 yards) and Darrin Hall (1021 yards) has carried this team as QB Kenny Pickett has struggled at times through the air.
Stanford's offense relies on big plays through the air as they rank 19th in IsoPPP and 7th in passing. Pittsburgh ranks 106th in defending explosiveness and 57th defending the pass. Watch for QB K.J. Costello to connect with his favorite target 6'3" WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside on some big shots down the field.
Prediction: Stanford 31-21
Redbox Bowl
#26 Oregon 8-4 vs. #38 Michigan State 7-5
Odds: Oregon -2.5, O/U: 48
Model: Oregon -2
3:00, Fox
Levi Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
Coming into this game I wasn't sure if Oregon QB Justin Herbert would play in the bowl as RB Royce Freeman sat out the bowl last season. Herbert is listed as probable with a shoulder injury as is starting RB Tony Brooks-James with a lower body injury. Herbert is an elite quarterback, but hasn't had a ton of help this season. Oregon has had its ups-and-downs this season including a win against Washington, but also a blowout loss to Arizona.
Michigan State has had an extremely disappointing season after returning most of the starters from last year. The offense has been completely anemic, scoring 30+ points only three times on the season. The Spartans have scored 6, 6, and 14 in their last three games with the 14 points coming against Rutgers. QBs Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi haven't been able to get the passing game going and the running game hasn't been there all season. The defense has played well ranking #2 in the nation (offense is #114). I think in this matchup Justin Herbert's talent will be on display and Michigan State won't be able to score enough to defeat the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 23-17
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
#14 Missouri 8-4 vs. #24 Oklahoma State 6-6
Odds: Missouri -8, O/U: 71.5
Model: Missouri -4
3:45, ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, TN)
Missouri QB Drew Lock will be looking to put on a clinic for pro scouts against this Oklahoma State defense. I love this matchup for Lock and the rushing attack as well. Oklahoma State struggles more against the run at 95th in the nation, so look for RB Larry Rountree III (1012 yards and 10 touchdowns) to have a big day.
Even better for Missouri is the fact that Oklahoma State RB Justice Hill will not be playing due to a rib injury. Missouri ranks 7th in rushing defense and Oklahoma State will really struggle to get anything going on the ground. This will force them into throwing, which might actually be the better gameplan as that's how Missouri's defense has been exploited this season. I think this will be a high scoring game that Missouri wins.
Prediction: Missouri 44-34
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
#13 Utah 9-4 vs. #44 Northwestern 8-5
Odds: Utah -6.5, O/U: 45
Model: Utah -8.5
7:00, FS1
SDCCU Stadium (San Diego, CA)
Utah has had some tough injury luck as their top two offensive players have missed time. QB Tyler Huntley has been upgraded to probable and looks to be playing in the bowl. RB Zack Moss will miss the bowl due to his ankle injury. Huntley being back provides a major boost for an offense that looked horrible against Washington in the Pac 12 Championship scoring only three points. Utah's defense is ranked 22nd and Northwestern's defense is ranked 32nd. I expect this game to be a defensive struggle as Utah is clearly the better offense (43rd) and Northwestern ranks all the way at 103rd. I think Utah bounces back with its quarterback and Northwestern's luck runs out.
Prediction: Utah 27-14
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
#15 Texas A&M 8-4 vs. #39 NC State 9-3
Odds: Texas A&M -5.5, O/U: 58.5
Model: Texas A&M -6.5
7:30, ESPN
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
Texas A&M comes in off of the highest scoring game in history against LSU, where it went 8 OT's and ended 74-72. All of Texas A&M's losses were quality opponents as they dropped games to Clemson, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Auburn. I believe they are a class above NC State, especially with NC State's leading WR Kelvin Harmon (81 receptions, 1186 yards, 7 touchdowns) sitting out as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
Texas A&M does struggle at times against the pass and NC State QB Ryan Finley is one of the top five QBs in the nation. Finley threw for 3789 yards and 24 touchdowns with 9 interceptions on the season. Finley will keep the Wolfpack in the game, but ultimately I think the athleticism of Texas A&M will prove to be too much.
Prediction: Texas A&M 33-27
January 1
Outback Bowl
#8 Mississippi State 8-4 vs. #20 Iowa 8-4
Odds: Mississippi State -6, O/U: 44.5
Model: Mississippi State -6
12:00, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
This will be a great matchup defensively as Mississippi State has the #6 defense and Iowa has the 20th ranked defense. Mississippi State's defensive line is legit and the combination of Jeffery Simmons (14.5 tackles for loss) and Montez Sweat (13.5 tackles for loss) is a matchup nightmare for any offensive line. Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald struggles with his accuracy, but makes it up with his legs. HC Joe Moorhead loves having a mobile QB (Trace McSorley at PSU) and designs his playbook with tons of different zone reads and designed QB runs.
This Iowa offense is unlike the usual blue collar run the ball down your throat team. Iowa's rushing offense ranks 119th in the nation, while its passing offense ranks 40th. The problem with facing Mississippi State is that they are the #2 passing defense in the nation. I see Iowa really struggling to move the football and can't see a way to victory for the Hawkeyes.
Prediction: Mississippi State 24-13
VRBO Citrus Bowl
#17 Penn State 9-3 vs. #41 Kentucky 9-3
Odds: Penn State -5.5, O/U: 48
Model: Penn State -6
1:00 ABC
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
This will be QB Trace McSorley's last hoorah as Penn State's quarterback. McSorley has been a winner, like him or not at Penn State and they will seriously miss him next season. Kentucky has a stout defense ranking #15 against the pass and #36 against the run. McSorley's legs are going to be key in this game along with Miles Sanders getting going early and often. The time off is going to be huge for McSorley to come into this game a lot more healthier than the last several weeks of the season.
Kentucky had an amazing season coming out of nowhere to go 9-3. They had a lot of luck in some of those wins as they rated a 7.6 in second-order wins for a differential of -1.4. RB Benny Snell Jr. was an absolute beast rushing the ball 263 times for 1305 yards and 14 touchdowns. Penn State is better against the pass than stopping the run, so they will have to sell out stopping Snell Jr. and the rushing attack. In Kentucky's losses, their opponents shut down the run and forced QB Terry Wilson to beat them through the air.
Penn State last faced Kentucky in the Outback Bowl in 1999 and defeated the Wildcats 26-14. I see the Nittany Lions getting the job done again and getting to 10 wins for the third straight season (11 the prior two seasons).
Prediction: Penn State 24-14
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
#11 LSU 9-3 vs. #55 UCF 12-0
Odds: LSU -7.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: LSU -9 (With Williams and White sitting out)
1:00, ESPN
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
This game will be more about who isn't playing than who is. UCF QB McKenzie Milton was the heart and soul of this team, but suffered a gruesome leg injury and is out for the year. LSU will most likely be without its top two players on defense LB Devin White (84.5 tackles, 12 tackles for loss) and CB Greedy Williams (28 tackles, 2 interceptions, 9 passes defended) as they will be 1st Round draft choices.
I would have loved to see McKenzie Milton go against a top 15 defense and it's a shame he can't go in this game. Backup QB Darriel Mack Jr. is a huge QB at 6'3", 230 pounds who likes to tuck the ball and get chunks of 4-5 yards. He's tough to bring down, but LSU is a much better defense than UCF has seen all season. Last season, UCF was a much better team and they faced an Auburn team that had zero motivation and were deflated after losing the SEC Championship to Georgia. After losing the marathon game against Texas A&M, I see QB Joe Burrow and company hungry to put UCF in its place.
Prediction: LSU 30-17
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
#7 Ohio State 12-1 vs. #10 Washington 10-3
Odds: Ohio State -6, O/U: 58
Model: Ohio State -5
5:00, ESPN
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Ohio State was left out of the playoff and you can count on that narrative in Urban Meyer's last game at the helm of Ohio State. I've been harping all year that they struggle with explosive offenses as they are 119th in the nation at defending big plays. Washington is not the team that will give Ohio State struggles as they rank 86th in the nation in IsoPPP offense.
Dwayne Haskins will be put to the test in what could be his last start at Ohio State. Washington has the 19th ranked passing defense in the nation and has been carrying Washington as the offense hasn't looked itself. It is crazy to think that just two seasons ago, QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin started in the College Football Playoff with several other current Huskies. Browning just hasn't looked the same the last two seasons as he has just a 16-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio this year. Gaskin has ran for 1147 yards, but has lacked the huge games and breakaway ability.
I like Ohio State to win the Rose Bowl and finish the season 13-1 in Urban Meyer's final season at the Shoe.
Prediction: Ohio State 34-20
Allstate Sugar Bowl
#3 Georgia 11-2 vs. #18 Texas 9-4
Odds: Georgia -11, O/U: 58
Model: Georgia -13.5
8:45, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
A lot of people made the argument that Georgia should have made CFB Playoff. I agree that they are in the top four in terms of best teams, but I think the committee got it right putting in Oklahoma. This is going to be a Georgia team that comes out for blood against Texas. RB D'Andre Swift is going to continue to be impressive and QB Jake Fromm is going to pick apart Texas' defense.
It seemed like the fix was in with some of the officiating in the Big 12 Championship. Texas didn't get any calls and there were phantom flags everywhere whenever Oklahoma had the ball. QB Sam Ehlinger has had a tremendous year throwing for 3127 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. This will be a big step up in competition instead of playing Big 12 defenses. Georgia will swarm and reck havoc and be able to defend the jump balls to his tall receivers.
Prediction: Georgia 37-17
January 7
College Football Playoff Championship
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Clemson
Model: Alabama -2.5
8:00, ESPN
Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
We've made it to the College Football Playoff Championship rematch that everyone wants to see. I have this power rated at Alabama -2.5, but I like Clemson in this game. I believe that Clemson has the better defense, given that Alabama has four missing starters who are out for the year due to injury. Tua's injury could be devastating if he isn't 100% as I really don't see Jalen Hurts doing what he did to Georgia against this Clemson team who has seen him before. The question will be can freshman QB Trevor Lawrence handle the pressure and I believe that will be answered in the Semifinal game against Notre Dame. I am going with the upset and riding with my future from the summer with the Clemson Tigers. Dabo's defense is going to pressure whatever quarterback they have in front of them and make some big stops. I expect the showdown to be every bit as good as the last few meetings we've seen between Clemson and Alabama.
Prediction: Clemson 31-27
Thanks for hanging with me all College Football season! I'm excited to provide more content for next season with the expansion of my new website. I will be releasing team previews through the summer and will have much more content across all sports.
The College Football Playoff is set and bowl eligible teams know where they are heading for a bowl. I was hoping for a little bit of chaos, but neither Georgia or Memphis was unable to hold on to double digit leads. The article last week went 8-2 straight up including two underdog winners as my beloved UAB Dragons came through once again as did Fresno State in a snowy OT thriller.
Before the bowls kick off, I will have a short blurb for each bowl and provide a prediction. Bowls can be tough to cap as so many players sit out due to leaving for the draft and other injuries. If there are any serious injuries or players sitting out, I will note them in each write up.
As always follow me on the Action Network app @DekeMathews to see all of the ATS picks I make during bowl season.
Note: The ranking I give each team is based on my power rankings (except for the lone FCS matchup, which is the STATS FCS rankings). Also, the model spreads are what I predict the market should be or in which way the spreads will move. The model projections also don't take in consideration matchups.
December 15
Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl
#11 North Carolina A&T 9-2 vs. Alcorn State 9-3
Odds: NC A&T -7.5, O/U: 47
12:00, ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
This matchup is a rematch of the 2015 inaugural Celebration Bowl that North Carolina A&T won 41-34. This will be North Carolina A&T's third appearance (have been to three of the four) and Alcorn State's second appearance.
North Carolina A&T is coming off a perfect 12-0 season and although they lost some key players (and longtime Head Coach Rod Broadway), the Aggies wind up back in the Celebration Bowl. A&T started the season off with two huge victories against #6 ranked Jacksonville State and on the road at East Carolina defeating the FBS program 28-23. The Aggies stumbled twice losing to unranked Morgan State 16-13 and Florida A&M 22-21. They needed a Florida A&M loss in its final game against Bethune-Cookman to give them the conference championship with a win against NC Central. The Aggies defeated NC Central 45-0. Senior QB Lamar Raynard is the key player for the team and will be the difference maker in this game.
Alcorn State defeated Southern in the SWAC Championship Game 37-28 to advance to the Celebration Bowl. The Braves are led by Fred McNair (Steve's older brother) and were able to accumulate a 9-3 record after a 7-5 season last year that ended in the SWAC Championship Game. The three losses were all legitimate losses as they dropped two games to FBS teams (at Georgia Tech 41-0, at New Mexico State 52-42) and lost a five overtime thriller to Alabama State.
I think North Carolina A&T QB Lamar Reynard has the experience to lead the team to back-to-back Celebration Bowl Titles, as Alcorn State doesn't quite has the personnel to match up with the Aggies.
Prediction: North Carolina A&T 31-24
New Mexico Bowl
#31 Utah State 10-2 vs. #73 North Texas 9-3
Odds: Utah State -9, O/U: 67.5
Model: Utah State -7.5
2:00, ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium (Albuquerque, NM)
Utah State HC Matt Wells led the team to a very good season finishing 10-2 and just behind Boise State in the MWC Mountain Division. Prior to the season finale loss at Boise State, Utah State had ripped off ten straight wins after a close loss at Michigan State to open the year. The Aggies will be without Wells, who took the Texas Tech job after Kliff Kingsbury was fired.
North Texas also had a successful season sweeping its non-conference schedule including wins against SMU and at Arkansas. Conference losses to divisional rivals Louisiana Tech and UAB took them out of the race and a late loss at Old Dominion was definitely a letdown. QB Mason Fine threw for 3734 yards and a 27-4 TD-INT ratio. Fine was rumored to be transferring if HC Seth Littrell left for the Kansas State job. However, Littrell removed his name from consideration and it looks like Fine is staying put.
Both teams possess explosive offenses, but Utah State has the better defense overall and against explosiveness. Utah State is also much more efficient on offense and defense as they boast a top 20 offense and defense in terms of efficiency (Offense 11th, Defense 19th). Utah State Sophomore QB Jordan Love has had a phenomenal year and I have the Aggies getting the win in a shootout.
Prediction: Utah State 38-31
AutoNation Cure Bowl
#87 Tulane 6-6 vs. #101 Louisiana 7-6
Odds: Tulane -3.5, O/U: 59
Model: Tulane -4.5
2:30, CBSSN
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
This game is an in-state matchup and a rematch of the '13 New Orleans Bowl that Louisiana won 24-21. Tulane started the year off 2-5 before going 4-1 to close out the year and become bowl eligible. Former LSU QB Justin McMillan has filled in for the injured starting QB Jonathan Banks in the last four games and Banks is questionable for the bowl. There is an argument that even if Banks is healthy, McMillan could still be the guy as he's impressed going 68/136 for 1159 yards and a 9-3 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 233 yards (6.0 ypc) and four touchdowns. Tulane ranks #5 in Offensive IsoPPP (explosiveness) and will look to exploit Louisiana's 85th ranked Defensive IsoPPP.
Louisiana surprisingly represented the West in the Sun Belt title game after the entire division had a down year. Louisiana relies on its run game heavily and could have two 1000 yard rushers by the end of this game. The sophomore tandem of Trey Ragas (1141 yards, 8 TD) and Elijah Mitchell (951 yards, 12 TD) spearhead the attack. Even third string RB Raymond Calais has 713 yards and 6 TD. The Ragin' Cajuns rank #7 in Offensive IsoPPP and matchup well with Tulane's 113th ranked Defensive IsoPPP.
Both teams have explosive offenses, but Tulane's struggles on defense are mainly through the air. This Louisiana team relies on the ground game and that plays to Tulane's strength on defense (37th in S&P+ Rushing Defense). I think we see a rush-heavy game with a few big plays and Tulane coming out on top.
Prediction: Tulane 31-27
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
#30 Arizona State 7-5 vs. #34 Fresno State 11-2
Odds: Fresno State -4.5, O/U: 51.5
Model: Arizona State -0.5
3:30, ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
Coach Herm Edwards has done a solid job in his first campaign at Arizona State. The Sun Devils faced one of the toughest schedules in the country and still posted seven wins. Leading WR N'Keal Harry (73 Receptions for 1088 Yards and 9 TD) has already declared for the draft and will sit out the bowl game. That is a big loss for QB Manny Wilkins, but a loss I think they will be able to manage. RB Eric Benjamin has been stellar on the ground, rushing for 1524 yards and 15 TD.
MWC Champion Fresno State got by Boise State in OT in snowy conditions last weekend. They have had an extremely impressive season and S&P+ has them ranked #10 in the nation. Much of the Bulldogs' success is based on its defense. Fresno State has let up 16 or fewer points in nine of its 13 games. The success on defense has enabled them to give the offense good field position (#1 Defense in terms of field position). Senior QB Marcus McMaryion is the heart and soul of this team throwing for 3453 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions.
This is a game the power ratings differ from Vegas' spread. Fresno State has a great defense and the better record. However, Arizona State is used to playing solid hard-nosed defenses week in and week out. Herm Edwards is going to have his boys ready in an underdog situation, and I have them upsetting the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Arizona State 24-20
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
#80 Eastern Michigan 7-5 vs. #93 Georgia Southern 9-3
Odds: Eastern Michigan PK, O/U: 48
Model: Eastern Michigan -4
5:30, ESPN
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Eastern Michigan comes into the bowl winning five of its last six games. In the five wins, it was the defense coming up big (16.0 ppg allowed). They have a tricky test with Georgia Southern, as Georgia Southern uses an option attack. Eastern Michigan faced an option attack Week 9 against Army in which they lost 37-22. This game was sandwiched between two must-win conference games, so I'm willing to give them a pass on motivation. Since they have already game-planed for an option offense, they will do much better the second time around. The issue here is that Eastern Michigan's strong suit is defending the pass, not the run.
Georgia Southern surprised everyone when they defeated then-ranked #25 Appalachian State 34-14. At that point, they were huge favorites to win the division and represent the East in the Sun Belt Championship. They followed that great performance with back-to-back double digit losses at ULM and at home against Troy. For an option offense, Georgia Southern doesn't have great rushing statistics. They only rank #58 in S&P+ Rushing. What has carried them to nine wins is ball security. Georgia Southern ranks #1 in the nation in Expected Turnover Margin and Turnover Margin. Eastern Michigan also takes care of the ball and forces turnovers ranking 10th in the nation.
Eastern Michigan's second crack at the option offense will be vital in this contest. I expect a methodical game that comes down to the final few possessions. In the battle of the Eagles, I am taking Eastern Michigan to win a close one.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan 24-21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
#59 Appalachian State 10-2 vs. #88 Middle Tennessee 8-5
Odds: Appalachian State -7.5, O/U: 50.5
Model: App State -8
9:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Sun Belt Champs Appalachian State make the trip to New Orleans to face Conference USA Runner-Up Middle Tennessee. After App State Starting RB Jalin Moore fractured his ankle, Darrynton Evans has filled in extremely well to the tune of 1079 yards rushing on the season. The Mountaineers boast a very balanced offense and a great defense against both the run and the pass (#8 S&P+ Rushing Defense and #4 S&P+ Passing Defense). They will have to be at their best against MTSU Senior QB (and coach's son) Brent Stockstill. Stockstill was named 1st Team All-Conference USA and has played very well this season (although I had Mason Fine of North Texas being 1st Team). Stockstill will play his last collegiate game for his father and I expect their to be some more tears after the game (see post C-USA Championship press conference).
Appalachian State's defense will be the key factor in this matchup. App State has allowed 10 or fewer points in seven games this season. I think they limit Stockstill and completely shut down the MTSU run game.
Prediction: Appalachian State 27-23
December 18
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
#70 UAB 10-3 vs. #76 Northern Illinois 8-5
Odds: UAB -1.5, O/U: 43.5
Model: UAB PK
7:00, ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, FL)
My Conference USA Champion UAB Blazers cashed a 25-1 future ticket for me with the win over Middle Tennessee. I have loved UAB all season if you have been keeping up with my Trusty Treble. This matchup is going to be must-watch TV only if you are a fan of defense. UAB has a terrific defense and pitched three shutouts this season. MAC Champ Northern Illinois ranks #15 in S&P+ Defense and has one of the best run defenses in the nation. This will not bode well for UAB as they rely heavily on RB Spencer Brown to get the job done on the ground.
On the flip side, Northern Illinois can't throw the ball at all and have a completely anemic offense. The offense showed they could come back against Buffalo, but that is the first sign of life we have really seen all season. UAB's defensive front should stuff the run and get pressure on QB Marcus Childers. Expect an extremely low scoring game and I have to stick with my UAB Dragons, although I really think this is anyone's game.
Prediction: UAB 20-17
DXL Frisco Bowl
#74 Ohio 8-4 vs. #75 San Diego State 7-5
Odds: Ohio -3, O/U: 54.5
Model: Ohio PK
8:00, ESPN
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)
Ohio comes into the bowl winners of five of their last six games and have scored 49+ points in each of the wins. They face a reeling San Diego State who limped to the finish, losing its last three games. The big matchup in this game is Ohio's offense against San Diego State's defense. The Bobcat offense is the fourth ranked offense in terms of efficiency in the nation. The Aztec defense ranks ninth in S&P+ rushing defense and 38th in S&P+ passing defense. Ohio boasts the third ranked S&P+ rushing offense led by RB A.J. Ouellette (1142 yards, 12 TD) and QB Nathan Rourke (961 yards, 13 TD).
Both Aztec QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington have missed some time this season due to injury, but are back and healthy again. Both players will need a huge games to keep pace will Ohio. I still see Ohio scoring points, even on San Diego State's stingy defense. Give me the Bobcats.
Prediction: Ohio 28-23
December 20
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
#81 Marshall 8-4 vs. #97 South Florida 7-5
Odds: Marshall -2.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Marshall -5
8:00, ESPN
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
I was on this Marshall team in the finale against Virginia Tech, as I thought they were the better team in almost every phase. The Thundering Herd didn't show up and were demolished by the Hokies and allowed them to get to a bowl. This is a new week and I expect to see a motivated Marshall team after the whoopin' they took to VT.
USF has been a fraud all season and the results finally caught up to them. They opened 7-0, but only had a 100% postgame win expectancy in one game (vs. Elon)! This included a home win against Georgia Tech 49-38, in which they only had postgame win expectancy of 24%. Down the stretch against better AAC competition, the Bulls lost the final five games on the schedule.
Most of the advanced metrics are fairly even between these two teams except for one major discrepancy. Marshall's defense ranks #12 in the nation in defensive efficiency and is in the top 35 in both rushing defense and passing defense. USF's 81st ranked rushing offense and 39th ranked passing offense is going to be in for a tough test. QB Blake Barnett is expected to be back from injury, but USF has six players who are questionable and five other players who are already ruled out. I think Marshall will bounce back and get to nine wins on the season.
Prediction: Marshall 29-24
December 21
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
#82 Toledo 7-5 vs. #96 FIU 8-4
Odds: Toledo -6, O/U: 68
Model: Toledo -5
12:30, ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
This is a matchup of two teams that have had opposite results this season. Toledo went 5-3 in MAC play for only the second time since 2010 that the Rockets have had three losses or more in conference play. FIU was a surprise contender in the Conference USA and really came out of nowhere. They didn't have great statistics in any department, as they were ranked in the middle of the FBS in basically all categories. They benefited from extreme turnover luck and a ton of luck in general over the season. The Golden Panthers had an expected turnover margin of -0.3, but had an actual turnover margin of +9. This turnover luck accounted for 3.9 points per game throughout the season. In terms of second order wins, FIU was a -1.1 and actually should have lost another game during the season.
This luck is going to stop when they play Toledo and regression is going to rear its ugly head. I give FIU a slight advantage on defense, but the offensive advantage is squarely for Toledo. Toledo is going to score at will in the game as they rank #22 in IsoPPP offense and 12th in S&P+ rushing offense. FIU ranks 114th in S&P+ rushing defense and are #94 in IsoPPP defense. Expect Toledo to have a field day on the ground and run all over FIU.
Prediction: Toledo 45-31
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
#52 BYU 6-6 vs. #98 Western Michigan 7-5
Odds: BYU -12.5, O/U: 48.5
Model: BYU -13
4:00, ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertson Stadium (Boise, ID)
BYU has had a season full of highs and lows and a lot of inconsistency. They have a pair of solid road victories against Arizona and Wisconsin early in the season. They also have looked lost against Northern Illinois (losing 7-6) and have had some tough losses to solid competition (@Boise State, vs. Utah State, vs. California, at Washington, at Utah). The defense is the bright spot on the team and keep an eye out for LB Sione Takitaki. Takitaki leads the team in tackles (82) and also has 8 tackles for loss. This is definitely a step down in competition facing Western Michigan.
Western Michigan had a six game winning streak against poor competition in the middle of the year, but showed its true self when playing better competition down the stretch. The Broncos lost at home against Ohio and Toledo, and surprisingly lost to lowly Ball State. Western Michigan ended the season on a winning note beating Northern Illinois who had already clinched the division and was without its top defender due to a bogus targeting in the second half.
Crazy things can happen in bowls, but I think BYU wins comfortably in this matchup. Western Michigan's offense is solid, but I believe BYU's defense will come to play.
Prediction: BYU 30-17
December 22
Jared Birmingham Bowl
#49 Memphis 8-5 vs. #66 Wake Forest 6-6
Odds: Memphis -5, O/U: 73.5
Model: Memphis -4
12:00, ESPN
Legion Field (Birmingham, AL)
Oh, Memphis how you've let me down again. Memphis for the second time this year held a double digit lead against UCF in the third quarter. At least they covered the spread in the first meeting only losing by 1. In the conference championship, the wheels fell off on offense and they couldn't move the chains in the second half, only scoring three points. Even though they couldn't get it done against UCF in the second half, the Memphis rushing offense has been elite this season. They are 4th in S&P+ rushing offense and #4 in IsoPPP offense. RB Darrell Henderson has amazingly ran for 1909 yards and 22 touchdowns on 8.9 yards per carry! Backup Patrick Taylor Jr. has rushed for 1012 as well in a complementary role.
Wake Forest is ranked 49th in S&P+ rushing defense and will definitely be tested. The mismatch will be in explosive plays. The Demon Deacons rank 82nd in IsoPPP defense and I see Memphis getting some big plays running the ball. WR Greg Dortch is a bright spot on offense and is one of the most electric players in all of college football. Keep an eye out for QB Sam Hartman to look early and often to Dortch (89 receptions, 1078 yards, and 8 touchdowns).
Prediction: Memphis 45-37
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
#69 Army 10-2 vs. #78 Houston 8-4
Odds: Army -3.5, O/U: 67.5
Model: Army -2
3:30, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, TX)
The big story in this matchup is who is not playing for Houston. Top 10 draft pick Ed Oliver isn't playing as well as QB D'Eriq King, who is still injured. Backup QB Clayton Tune has passed for 565 yards and 7 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions in relief, but only has a 44.7% completion percentage. Houston has gone up against an option offense once already this year, when they defeated Tulane 48-17. Army is a better team than Tulane, but it is a huge advantage that Houston has already faced an option attack and will have plenty of time to game plan.
Army continues to "just win." The Black Knights have two wins this year that they had less than a 50% postgame win expectancy, yet they still got the job done (Hawaii 8% & Air Force 9%). Army doesn't beat you by having more talent, they grind you out three yards at a time. What would surprise you is that they only rank 89th in S&P+ rushing offense.
Even without Oliver, I think Houston's defense limits Army's offense enough to force them into passing downs. If QB Clayton Tune can lead this offense on sustained drives, I actually like the Cougars to come out on top and upset Army.
Prediction: Houston 34-28
Dollar General Bowl
#71 Buffalo 10-3 vs. #83 Troy 9-3
Odds: Buffalo -2.5, O/U: 53.5
Model: Buffalo -2
7:00, ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, AL)
Buffalo and QB Tyree Jackson (2857 yards, 27-11 TD-INT) have surprised the masses en route to an appearance in the MAC Championship Game this season. The Bulls squandered a big lead and were unable stop Northern Illinois on its final possession. A huge issue with Jackson is his accuracy. After watching the last few games, Jackson's accuracy has been really inconsistent. He has made outstanding throws to WR Anthony Johnson (52 receptions, 944 yards, 11 TD) at times and then air mails his receiver the next throw by 15 yards. Tyree Jackson is going to come to play in this matchup as it could be the last game audition for him to show the NFL scouts what he can do. Although he is a junior, there are rumblings that he may test the draft waters. I expect Jackson to ball out in what could be his last game with the Bulls.
QB Caleb Barker being out for the season due to an ACL has been a big blow for Troy. Backup QB Sawyer Smith has filled in well at times, but is a definite downgrade at the position. Troy is going to need to put up some points to compete with Buffalo in this matchup. However, I think Buffalo's offense is going to give us a good performance to close out the season with an outstanding 11 win year.
Prediction: Buffalo 24-20
SoFi Hawaii Bowl
#94 Louisiana Tech 7-5 @ #107 Hawaii 8-5
Odds: Hawaii -2, O/U: 57.5
Model: Louisiana Tech -4.5
10:30, ESPN
Aloha Stadium (Honolulu, HI)
This will be a home game for Hawaii, where they were 5-2 on the season. The typical Hawaii advantage will be lessened as Louisiana Tech will have time to get acclimated. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald has been outstanding throwing for 3790 yards, 35 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Louisiana Tech's defense has been serviceable all season. The best part of that defense has been its secondary and play against the pass. Louisiana Tech ranks #49 in S&P+ passing defense and will be put to the test. Earlier in the season, the Bulldogs defeated North Texas on the road and held QB Mason Fine in check. I have Fine as a much better QB than McDonald and I feel Louisiana Tech can play some defense here. The only question is if they can score enough points on offense to get the victory. WR Adrian Hardy is the focal point of the offense as he has 69 receptions, 1052 yards, and 9 touchdowns on the season. I have Louisiana Tech coming back strong after a much needed few weeks off to pull off the upset on the island.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 34-31
December 26
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
#35 Boise State 10-3 vs. #36 Boston College 7-5
Odds: Boise State -3, O/U: 55
Model: Boise State PK
1:30, ESPN
Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX)
Boise State was unable to win on the blue turf in the MWC Championship against Fresno State. QB Brett Rypien is one of the best in the nation throwing for 3705 yards with a 30-7 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Alexander Mattison is a key cog to the offense as well, running for 1412 yards and 17 touchdowns. The offense is ranked 18th per S&P+ and will really test the Boston College defense.
Boston College has struggled down the stretch, losing its last three games. The defense is once again a strong point, but isn't the elite defense that we are used to at BC. The major factor in this cap is whether or not RB AJ Dillon plays. Dillon has rushed for 1108 yards and 10 touchdowns this season and is one of the best running backs in the nation when healthy. I think even if he does play, he won't be 100% and a motivated Boise State team will get its eleventh win.
Prediction: Boise State 29-24
Quick Lane Bowl
#40 Georgia Tech 7-5 vs. #63 Minnesota 6-6
Odds: Georgia Tech -4, O/U: 61
Model: Georgia Tech -6
5:15, ESPN
Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson will be coaching his final game for the Yellow Jackets. The option offense is tough to prepare for with only a few days to gameplan, but when you have several weeks of film study, defenses have more success in bowls. This matchup is fairly easy to cap as Minnesota has struggled with two things, consistency and explosive offenses. Georgia Tech ranks 113th in IsoPPP and rarely breaks big plays since they run an option attack.
Georgia Tech's defense has been torched through the air and rank 118th in nation in S&P+ passing defense. Minnesota WR Tyler Johnson is going to have a huge day (74 receptions, 1112 yards, 10 touchdowns). The last key factor that shades this game towards Minnesota, is Minnesota's stuff rate. Minnesota does a great job of getting a push and stopping the run early (rank #9 in the nation). This will be key in stopping the option.
Although my model has this line shaded to Georgia Tech -6, the matchup is not a good one for the Yellow Jackets. I think Minnesota not only covers the spread, but also wins the game outright.
Prediction: Minnesota 30-24
Cheez-It Bowl
#37 California 7-5 vs. #50 TCU 6-6
Odds: TCU PK, O/U: 40.5
Model: California -3
9:00, ESPN
Chase Field (Phoenix, AZ)
This game should be a low scoring affair pitting the #12 ranked S&P+ defense (California) against the #23 ranked S&P+ defense (TCU). The line is a pick'em right now and I am siding with my model and going with Cal. This game could go either way, but I like Cal's defense to force some turnovers and set its offense up for some good field position. Cal ranks #17 in Linebacker havoc and might have one of the best inside linebacking duos in the nation. Junior Evan Weaver (109.5 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks) and Senior Jordan Kunaszyk (108 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4 sacks) lead this defense that has only allowed 15.7 points per game over its last six games.
TCU got to bowl eligibility by defeating Baylor and Oklahoma State in the last two weeks of the season. I mentioned the havoc that Cal's linebackers produce and that will be huge in this matchup. TCU is 126th in the nation in expected turnover rate (only 130 FBS teams). Whether it is a fumble or an interception, Cal will force the Horned Frogs into turnovers that lead to points. The nail in the coffin for the Horned Frogs is that they could be without three key players on offense. QB Shawn Robinson and WR KaVontae Turpin are out for the year, and RB Darius Anderson is questionable. Give me the Golden Bears.
Prediction: California 23-16
December 27
Walk-On's Independence Bowl
#48 Duke 7-5 vs. #51 Temple 8-4
Odds: Temple -3, O/U: 56
Model: Duke -0.5
1:30, ESPN
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, LA)
Duke QB Daniel Jones is going to have his hands full as his Blue Devils take on Temple. Temple boasts the #1 ranked S&P+ passing defense and the #24 ranked overall defense. Duke's offense has looked horrendous in its last two outings (six points at Clemson and seven points vs. Wake Forest) and I expect the same struggles in this matchup.
Temple's starting QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead are both coming into this game banged up. Armstead has been upgraded to probable and Russo is questionable, as he missed the last game with a cast on his right hand. Temple didn't need Russo against lowly Connecticut as they defeated the Huskies 57-7. After starting the season 0-2 (including a home loss to Villanova), Temple really turned around its season and getting to eight wins is a real achievement. I like Temple's defense to make life hard for QB Daniel Jones and the offense to run the football well with Armstead.
Prediction: Temple 27-24
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
#23 Miami (FL) 7-5 vs. #29 Wisconsin 7-5
Odds: Miami (FL) -3.5, O/U: 47
Model: Miami (FL) -2
5:15, ESPN
Yankee Stadium (New York, NY)
Two of the most disappointing teams this season face off at Yankee Stadium in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. Miami is without its top receiver Jeff Thomas who was dismissed from the team in late November. This is a fairly easy cap as Miami is going to sell out to stop the run. Wisconsin cannot throw the ball whatsoever even after Starting QB Alex Hornibrook returned from injury. Miami's defense causes havoc and will force Wisconsin into passing situations and then bring the house with exotic blitz packages.
Wisconsin's star RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1989 yards and somehow topped his amazing freshman season (1977 yards). A trademark of Wisconsin team's is a strong defense and a steady rushing attack. This season, the defense has struggled especially in the last two games (at Purdue 47-44 win, Minnesota 37-15 loss). QB Hornibrook threw three interceptions against Minnesota totaling 11 on the season with only 13 touchdowns. Miami has the better defense and I think they will grind out a victory to salvage the season.
Prediction: Miami (FL) 24-17
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
#56 Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. #60 Baylor 6-6
Odds: Vanderbilt -4, O/U: 55
Model: Vanderbilt -1
9:00, ESPN
NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
Both of these teams come into the Texas Bowl, fortunate to be bowl eligible as they needed wins in each team's finale. Vanderbilt comes into the game winning three of its last four (at Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee). Vandy's best win is actually a home victory against Middle Tennessee in the opener. They have struggled against better competition and weren't able to pull off any real upsets.
Baylor has battled all season and Matt Rhule has them back to a bowl after a 1-11 season. I backed the Bears in the last Treble as a seven point underdog and they defeated Texas Tech to go bowling. I like Baylor again in this matchup as Vanderbilt has a huge issue with its defense. Vandy ranks 105th in the nation in S&P+ rushing defense and I like Baylor to have a big day on the ground. Baylor has a very efficient offense (35th) and has played very well against stiff competition throughout the grueling Big 12 schedule. Top WR Jalen Hurd is out due to injury and will definitely be missed in the passing game. I think the Bears get another upset and I will be backing them again.
Prediction: Baylor 27-24
December 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
#21 Auburn 7-5 vs. #27 Purdue 6-6
Odds: Auburn -4.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Auburn -1.5
1:30, ESPN
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
Auburn had high hopes for this season, especially after the neutral site victory over Washington in the opener. The Tigers dropped two games (LSU & Tennessee) in which they had above a 70% postgame win expectancy, which really could have changed its season. This game is a relatively easy cap as pretty much every Purdue game has been this season. Purdue exploits defenses that give up big plays due to explosiveness. Auburn ranks 105th in the nation in defending explosiveness and freshman sensation WR Rondale Moore is going to have a huge game (103 receptions, 1164 yards, 12 TD on the season). I think this Purdue team is going to be fired up with HC Jeff Brohm staying at the school, when he was linked to the Louisville job (his alma mater). I think Auburn is in a similar situation as last year with the bowl (UCF loss) as motivation isn't going to be at an all-time high playing for the Music City Bowl. Give me Purdue with the points and expect to see Rondale Moore breaking multiple long touchdowns.
Prediction: Purdue 31-27
Camping World Bowl
#9 West Virginia 8-3 vs. #32 Syracuse 9-3
Odds: West Virginia -1.5, O/U: 69
Model: West Virginia -2 (without Grier)
5:15, ESPN
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
A huge swing in the spread as the news that West Virginia QB Will Grier was going to sit out this game. This game opened at WVU -7.5 and has since been moved to WVU -1.5. Along with Will Grier, starting LT Yodny Cajuste will also skip the game. Backup QB Jack Allison is a transfer from Miami and has been at West Virginia for two seasons. He's only thrown 10 passes in his career, but was a highly touted recruit cracking the ESPN 300.
Syracuse dual-threat QB Eric Dungey will be playing in his last collegiate game. He's had an amazing year throwing for 2565 yards, rushing for 871 yards, and 32 total touchdowns. Syracuse now has a huge advantage at the quarterback position and I like their chances here. Watch for Syracuse's #1 ranked Special Teams unit. Whether it is field position or big plays, they make an impact in every game. As soon as the Will Grier news came out, I hopped on Syracuse +2.5 and like them outright as well.
Prediction: Syracuse 38-30
Valero Alamo Bowl
#19 Washington State 10-2 vs. #22 Iowa State 8-4
Odds: Washington State -3.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: Washington State -1
9:00, ESPN
Alamodome (San Antonio, TX)
Washington State was picked by most to finish next to last in its division this season. HC Mike Leach has defied expectations as the Cougars fell just short of the division title. Transfer QB Gardner Minshew II was unbelievable throwing for 4477 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions. He was able to do so, because of the offensive line giving him plenty of time to find an open receiver. The offensive line ranked #1 in the nation in sack rate.
Iowa State is coming off a victory against Drake 27-24, which was a game they had nothing to play for. The public is backing the Cougars and using that recency bias. Here is why I actually like Iowa State in this matchup. Iowa State can be beaten on the ground, but are a great defense against the pass. The cyclones are the 23rd ranked defense against the pass and have put together some amazing performances in the pass heavy Big 12. In a blowout win against West Virginia, they held Will Grier to only 100 yards passing and one touchdown. This was by far the worst game for Will Grier all season. If they can get some pressure to Minshew, he will be rushed and forced into mistakes that this defense will capitalize on.
Prediction: Iowa State 31-27
December 29
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
#5 Michigan 10-2 vs. #12 Florida 9-3
Odds: Michigan -7.5, O/U: 51
Model: Michigan -7.5
12:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Michigan comes into this game off of the embarrassing blowout loss to Ohio State 62-39. D-Lineman Rashan Gary will sit out this game and LB Devin Bush is questionable to play. The Wolverines played several games without Gary and I honestly don't think they will miss him nearly as much as they would Bush, if he doesn't play.
Florida is coming off a rivalry game demolition of Florida State in Tallahassee. The Gators beat the Noles 41-14 to finally get a victory over their arch rival. Florida doesn't have a ton of elite playmakers, but are solid in every aspect.
I don't expect to see a ton of offense in this matchup, but Michigan definitely has the advantage. The weakest part of Florida's defense is stopping the run, which Michigan wants to establish early and often. I think DC Don Brown will have the defense rearing to go and get the bad taste of the Horseshoe out of their mouths.
Prediction: Michigan 27-19
Belk Bowl
#25 South Carolina 7-5 vs. #46 Virginia 7-5
Odds: South Carolina -4, O/U: 54.5
Model: South Carolina -4.5
12:00, ABC
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
The big news for the Gamecocks is the absence of WR Deebo Samuel as he will be entering the draft. Samuel was a huge weapon for QB Jake Bentley tallying 62 catches for 882 yards and 11 touchdowns. The South Carolina offense is really going to miss him against Virginia's talented cornerbacks.
Virginia has struggled lately against teams that run the football. Going 1-3 down the stretch with losses to Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech (all run heavy teams) exposed Virginia's defense. They are very solid in the passing game with elite cornerbacks. CB Bryce Hall has been an absolute monster this year with 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 20 passes defended! With South Carolina already down Samuel, I think Jake Bentley is going to struggle against this defense that relies on havoc. I'm not worried about the run from South Carolina as they rank just 71st in rushing S&P+.
I like Virginia in this matchup if QB Bryce Perkins continues to play well. Perkins has thrown for 2472 yards and rushed for 1038 yards on the season and should be poised for a big game. Give me the Cavaliers with the points, and a chance at the outright victory.
Prediction: Virginia 27-24
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
#77 Nevada 7-5 vs. #90 Arkansas State 8-4
Odds: Arkansas State -1, O/U: 59.5
Model: Nevada -4
1:15, CBSSN
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, AZ)
I really thought at the beginning of the season that Arkansas State was the class of the Sun Belt this season. With QB Justice Hansen back, I was expecting a big season from the Red Wolves. The losses as the year comes to an end aren't horrible (at Alabama, at Georgia Southern, App State, and at Louisiana), but I still feel disappointed about this team's season. They have a balanced offense ranking #59 in rushing and #69 in passing.
When taking a deeper dive into Nevada, I have to agree with my model's spread. They have an average offense, the #16 rushing defense, and are a top 25 team in terms of explosiveness. Arkansas State ranks 116th in defending explosiveness and I think QB Ty Gangi (3131 yards, 23 touchdowns) will have a big day. I am taking another underdog and riding with the Wolfpack in the battle of the Wolves.
Prediction: Nevada 34-31
CFB Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
#2 Clemson 13-0 vs. #6 Notre Dame 12-0
Odds: Clemson -11.5, O/U: 55
Model: Clemson -10
4:00, ESPN
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
The opening playoff game pits Clemson (who I have a future on to win the title from before the season) against one of the bigger surprise teams in Notre Dame. Ideally this would have been the ACC Championship if I had things my way. I really wish Notre Dame would join the ACC in football since they already did in basketball. They already played five ACC teams during the season and I just think it makes so much more sense than playing an Independent schedule.
Notre Dame comes into this game undefeated, even though they've had a less than 50% postgame win expectancy in two games (Michigan 39%, Vanderbilt 46%). QB Ian Book has been a revelation replacing Brandon Wimbush. Book has a 70.4% completion percentage to go along with 2468 yards, 19 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. Notre Dame's biggest strength is its defense. The Irish have the #4 ranked defense according to S&P+ and they are also 4th in limiting explosiveness. CB Julian Love is one of the best corners in the nation and I have him projected as a first round pick next year (52.5 tackles, 1 interception, and 15 passes defended). The senior linebacking duo of Te'von Coney (83 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) and Drue Tranquill (65.5 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) are amongst the best in the nation as well.
Clemson has the #1 defense in the nation and a potent offense as well now that freshman QB Trevor Lawrence has taken over. Lawrence has thrown for 2606 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only four interceptions on the season. RB Travis Etienne has rushed for 1463 yards and 21 touchdowns to anchor the run game. Clemson's balanced attack is vital in this game if they want to put up points on this Notre Dame defense.
The front four on defense is just unfair and it still amazes me that they all returned this season. DE Clelin Ferrell (35.5 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks) leads this front that simply denies the run. I really like this Clemson team and although they haven't really been through adversity this year, they are hungry and want another shot at Alabama. I have this as a low scoring game, but actually like Notre Dame to cover the spread.
Prediction: Clemson 24-14
CFB Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
#1 Alabama 13-0 vs. #4 Oklahoma 12-1
Odds: Alabama -14, O/U: 79
Model: Alabama -11
8:00, ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Heisman winning QB Kyler Murray (4046 yards, 40 touchdowns, seven interceptions) leads Oklahoma against runner-up QB Tua Tagovailoa (3353 yards, 37 touchdowns, four interceptions) in the second playoff game. There's a lot to love about this Oklahoma offense, but almost nothing to love about it's defense. Tua is going to have a field day against this 91st ranked passing defense and I can see Alabama scoring points on every single drive barring turnovers. Sophomore WR Jerry Jeudy is going to feast on a weak secondary and blow open some big plays.
On the defensive side of the ball, Alabama has freaks everywhere and continues to pump out talent each year. DL Quinnen Williams (18 tackles for loss) had some Heisman votes and is a matchup nightmare. The play of true freshman DB Patrick Surtain II has been outstanding as well and I have him projected as a surefire top 10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The composure he shows is unheard of as a freshman (see Trevor Lawrence as well) and I love watching this kid play. Oklahoma's offense is still going to score points, but they will have to grind out some tough drives whereas Alabama should score with ease. I like Alabama to get back to the title and reignite the rivalry with Clemson.
Prediction: Alabama 49-35
December 31
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
#54 Cincinnati 10-2 vs. #67 Virginia Tech 6-6
Odds: Cincinnati -6, O/U: 53.5
Model: Cincinnati -4.5
12:00, ESPN
Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
Cincinnati really came out of nowhere this year to have a great season and get to double digit wins. Virginia Tech on the other hand had a disastrous season in which they barely got to six wins and bowl eligibility. When you look at advanced metrics, Virginia Tech has been a fraud all season. In two wins this season, they had 30% or lower postgame win expectancy (UNC 24%, Virginia 30%). The defense has been horrendous at 79th in the nation, which is unheard of for a Virginia Tech team. They have had some internal turmoil and defensive starters leave the program, as well as some injuries to key players.
Cincinnati's offense has struggled at times, but the defense always seems to pick up the slack. Ranked 19th in S&P+ defense, this Bearcat team is something special. Another key is the havoc they force on defense. Cincinnati ranks 15th in overall havoc which has led to opposing turnovers and I expect more of the same in this matchup. I have Cincinnati's offense doing just enough to get a victory with some solid defensive play.
Prediction: Cincinnati 27-23
Hyundai Sun Bowl
#16 Stanford 8-4 vs. #42 Pittsburgh 7-6
Odds: Stanford -6.5, O/U: 52.5
Model: Stanford -7
2:00, CBS
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, TX)
Pittsburgh is a very simple team to cap as they rely on the running game and feast on teams with a poor rushing defense. Stanford has a middle of the road rushing defense at 66th in the nation and will be put to the test in this matchup. Pitt's two headed rushing attack with seniors Qadree Ollison (1190 yards) and Darrin Hall (1021 yards) has carried this team as QB Kenny Pickett has struggled at times through the air.
Stanford's offense relies on big plays through the air as they rank 19th in IsoPPP and 7th in passing. Pittsburgh ranks 106th in defending explosiveness and 57th defending the pass. Watch for QB K.J. Costello to connect with his favorite target 6'3" WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside on some big shots down the field.
Prediction: Stanford 31-21
Redbox Bowl
#26 Oregon 8-4 vs. #38 Michigan State 7-5
Odds: Oregon -2.5, O/U: 48
Model: Oregon -2
3:00, Fox
Levi Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
Coming into this game I wasn't sure if Oregon QB Justin Herbert would play in the bowl as RB Royce Freeman sat out the bowl last season. Herbert is listed as probable with a shoulder injury as is starting RB Tony Brooks-James with a lower body injury. Herbert is an elite quarterback, but hasn't had a ton of help this season. Oregon has had its ups-and-downs this season including a win against Washington, but also a blowout loss to Arizona.
Michigan State has had an extremely disappointing season after returning most of the starters from last year. The offense has been completely anemic, scoring 30+ points only three times on the season. The Spartans have scored 6, 6, and 14 in their last three games with the 14 points coming against Rutgers. QBs Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi haven't been able to get the passing game going and the running game hasn't been there all season. The defense has played well ranking #2 in the nation (offense is #114). I think in this matchup Justin Herbert's talent will be on display and Michigan State won't be able to score enough to defeat the Ducks.
Prediction: Oregon 23-17
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
#14 Missouri 8-4 vs. #24 Oklahoma State 6-6
Odds: Missouri -8, O/U: 71.5
Model: Missouri -4
3:45, ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, TN)
Missouri QB Drew Lock will be looking to put on a clinic for pro scouts against this Oklahoma State defense. I love this matchup for Lock and the rushing attack as well. Oklahoma State struggles more against the run at 95th in the nation, so look for RB Larry Rountree III (1012 yards and 10 touchdowns) to have a big day.
Even better for Missouri is the fact that Oklahoma State RB Justice Hill will not be playing due to a rib injury. Missouri ranks 7th in rushing defense and Oklahoma State will really struggle to get anything going on the ground. This will force them into throwing, which might actually be the better gameplan as that's how Missouri's defense has been exploited this season. I think this will be a high scoring game that Missouri wins.
Prediction: Missouri 44-34
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
#13 Utah 9-4 vs. #44 Northwestern 8-5
Odds: Utah -6.5, O/U: 45
Model: Utah -8.5
7:00, FS1
SDCCU Stadium (San Diego, CA)
Utah has had some tough injury luck as their top two offensive players have missed time. QB Tyler Huntley has been upgraded to probable and looks to be playing in the bowl. RB Zack Moss will miss the bowl due to his ankle injury. Huntley being back provides a major boost for an offense that looked horrible against Washington in the Pac 12 Championship scoring only three points. Utah's defense is ranked 22nd and Northwestern's defense is ranked 32nd. I expect this game to be a defensive struggle as Utah is clearly the better offense (43rd) and Northwestern ranks all the way at 103rd. I think Utah bounces back with its quarterback and Northwestern's luck runs out.
Prediction: Utah 27-14
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
#15 Texas A&M 8-4 vs. #39 NC State 9-3
Odds: Texas A&M -5.5, O/U: 58.5
Model: Texas A&M -6.5
7:30, ESPN
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
Texas A&M comes in off of the highest scoring game in history against LSU, where it went 8 OT's and ended 74-72. All of Texas A&M's losses were quality opponents as they dropped games to Clemson, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Auburn. I believe they are a class above NC State, especially with NC State's leading WR Kelvin Harmon (81 receptions, 1186 yards, 7 touchdowns) sitting out as he prepares for the NFL Draft.
Texas A&M does struggle at times against the pass and NC State QB Ryan Finley is one of the top five QBs in the nation. Finley threw for 3789 yards and 24 touchdowns with 9 interceptions on the season. Finley will keep the Wolfpack in the game, but ultimately I think the athleticism of Texas A&M will prove to be too much.
Prediction: Texas A&M 33-27
January 1
Outback Bowl
#8 Mississippi State 8-4 vs. #20 Iowa 8-4
Odds: Mississippi State -6, O/U: 44.5
Model: Mississippi State -6
12:00, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
This will be a great matchup defensively as Mississippi State has the #6 defense and Iowa has the 20th ranked defense. Mississippi State's defensive line is legit and the combination of Jeffery Simmons (14.5 tackles for loss) and Montez Sweat (13.5 tackles for loss) is a matchup nightmare for any offensive line. Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald struggles with his accuracy, but makes it up with his legs. HC Joe Moorhead loves having a mobile QB (Trace McSorley at PSU) and designs his playbook with tons of different zone reads and designed QB runs.
This Iowa offense is unlike the usual blue collar run the ball down your throat team. Iowa's rushing offense ranks 119th in the nation, while its passing offense ranks 40th. The problem with facing Mississippi State is that they are the #2 passing defense in the nation. I see Iowa really struggling to move the football and can't see a way to victory for the Hawkeyes.
Prediction: Mississippi State 24-13
VRBO Citrus Bowl
#17 Penn State 9-3 vs. #41 Kentucky 9-3
Odds: Penn State -5.5, O/U: 48
Model: Penn State -6
1:00 ABC
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
This will be QB Trace McSorley's last hoorah as Penn State's quarterback. McSorley has been a winner, like him or not at Penn State and they will seriously miss him next season. Kentucky has a stout defense ranking #15 against the pass and #36 against the run. McSorley's legs are going to be key in this game along with Miles Sanders getting going early and often. The time off is going to be huge for McSorley to come into this game a lot more healthier than the last several weeks of the season.
Kentucky had an amazing season coming out of nowhere to go 9-3. They had a lot of luck in some of those wins as they rated a 7.6 in second-order wins for a differential of -1.4. RB Benny Snell Jr. was an absolute beast rushing the ball 263 times for 1305 yards and 14 touchdowns. Penn State is better against the pass than stopping the run, so they will have to sell out stopping Snell Jr. and the rushing attack. In Kentucky's losses, their opponents shut down the run and forced QB Terry Wilson to beat them through the air.
Penn State last faced Kentucky in the Outback Bowl in 1999 and defeated the Wildcats 26-14. I see the Nittany Lions getting the job done again and getting to 10 wins for the third straight season (11 the prior two seasons).
Prediction: Penn State 24-14
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
#11 LSU 9-3 vs. #55 UCF 12-0
Odds: LSU -7.5, O/U: 54.5
Model: LSU -9 (With Williams and White sitting out)
1:00, ESPN
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
This game will be more about who isn't playing than who is. UCF QB McKenzie Milton was the heart and soul of this team, but suffered a gruesome leg injury and is out for the year. LSU will most likely be without its top two players on defense LB Devin White (84.5 tackles, 12 tackles for loss) and CB Greedy Williams (28 tackles, 2 interceptions, 9 passes defended) as they will be 1st Round draft choices.
I would have loved to see McKenzie Milton go against a top 15 defense and it's a shame he can't go in this game. Backup QB Darriel Mack Jr. is a huge QB at 6'3", 230 pounds who likes to tuck the ball and get chunks of 4-5 yards. He's tough to bring down, but LSU is a much better defense than UCF has seen all season. Last season, UCF was a much better team and they faced an Auburn team that had zero motivation and were deflated after losing the SEC Championship to Georgia. After losing the marathon game against Texas A&M, I see QB Joe Burrow and company hungry to put UCF in its place.
Prediction: LSU 30-17
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
#7 Ohio State 12-1 vs. #10 Washington 10-3
Odds: Ohio State -6, O/U: 58
Model: Ohio State -5
5:00, ESPN
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
Ohio State was left out of the playoff and you can count on that narrative in Urban Meyer's last game at the helm of Ohio State. I've been harping all year that they struggle with explosive offenses as they are 119th in the nation at defending big plays. Washington is not the team that will give Ohio State struggles as they rank 86th in the nation in IsoPPP offense.
Dwayne Haskins will be put to the test in what could be his last start at Ohio State. Washington has the 19th ranked passing defense in the nation and has been carrying Washington as the offense hasn't looked itself. It is crazy to think that just two seasons ago, QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin started in the College Football Playoff with several other current Huskies. Browning just hasn't looked the same the last two seasons as he has just a 16-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio this year. Gaskin has ran for 1147 yards, but has lacked the huge games and breakaway ability.
I like Ohio State to win the Rose Bowl and finish the season 13-1 in Urban Meyer's final season at the Shoe.
Prediction: Ohio State 34-20
Allstate Sugar Bowl
#3 Georgia 11-2 vs. #18 Texas 9-4
Odds: Georgia -11, O/U: 58
Model: Georgia -13.5
8:45, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
A lot of people made the argument that Georgia should have made CFB Playoff. I agree that they are in the top four in terms of best teams, but I think the committee got it right putting in Oklahoma. This is going to be a Georgia team that comes out for blood against Texas. RB D'Andre Swift is going to continue to be impressive and QB Jake Fromm is going to pick apart Texas' defense.
It seemed like the fix was in with some of the officiating in the Big 12 Championship. Texas didn't get any calls and there were phantom flags everywhere whenever Oklahoma had the ball. QB Sam Ehlinger has had a tremendous year throwing for 3127 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. This will be a big step up in competition instead of playing Big 12 defenses. Georgia will swarm and reck havoc and be able to defend the jump balls to his tall receivers.
Prediction: Georgia 37-17
January 7
College Football Playoff Championship
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Clemson
Model: Alabama -2.5
8:00, ESPN
Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
We've made it to the College Football Playoff Championship rematch that everyone wants to see. I have this power rated at Alabama -2.5, but I like Clemson in this game. I believe that Clemson has the better defense, given that Alabama has four missing starters who are out for the year due to injury. Tua's injury could be devastating if he isn't 100% as I really don't see Jalen Hurts doing what he did to Georgia against this Clemson team who has seen him before. The question will be can freshman QB Trevor Lawrence handle the pressure and I believe that will be answered in the Semifinal game against Notre Dame. I am going with the upset and riding with my future from the summer with the Clemson Tigers. Dabo's defense is going to pressure whatever quarterback they have in front of them and make some big stops. I expect the showdown to be every bit as good as the last few meetings we've seen between Clemson and Alabama.
Prediction: Clemson 31-27
Thanks for hanging with me all College Football season! I'm excited to provide more content for next season with the expansion of my new website. I will be releasing team previews through the summer and will have much more content across all sports.
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