Deke's Sports Ramblings

Welcome back to another ATP breakdown.  We set our sights on the German Open taking place in Hamburg.  Wednesday and Thursday's matchups will be in the Round of 16.  We have seen some upsets as the three lowest ranked players pulled first round upsets.  Let's jump into the eight matchups and see if we can find any value. Rank Nat Player 2018 Rec Clay % Last Result Opponent H2H 8 AUT Dominic Thiem 39-13 198-68 74.44% Hamburg 1R - Moutet 2:0 50 Millman R16 3-0 12 ARG Diego Schwartzman 24-16 404-193 67.67% Hamburg 1R - Ruud 2:1 349 Masur R16 0-0 13 ESP Pablo Carreno Busta 25-18 452-237 65.60% Hamburg 1R - F. Mayer 2:1 80 Bedene R16 2-3 22 ITA Marco Cecchinato 40-20 346-184 65.28% Hamburg 1R - Monfils 1:2 - - 24 BIH Damir Dzumhur 18-20 223-115 65.98% Hamburg 1R - Kovalik 0:2 - - 25 GER Phillip Kohlschreiber 20-18 243-167 59.27% Hamburg 1R - Basilashvili 1:2 - - 28 FRA Richard Gasquet 28-15 206-91 69.36% Hamburg 1R - Paire 2:0 69 Jarry R16 0-0 33 ESP Fernando V...

Some great First Round matchups in the Round of 128 coming up at Wimbledon.  I'm going to breakdown a few of the values I like and the bets I will be making. Section 1 Harrison/Carballes Baena Over 3.5 (+100) Carballes Baena has rarely played on anything but Clay and his results on other surfaces show.  He has also had a rough going as of late and is 18-18 on the year.  This is his first Wimbledon and has only three matches on Grass to his name (0-3).  Ryan Harrison has been bounced out of his last three first rounds and isn't having the best season either (12-13).  Harrison is 28-35 on Grass lifetime and is just 1-5 in the last two years.  Although I have Harrison winning this match, I don't see a straight set finish and at even money, I'll take my chances with the over. Elias +2.5 (+100) vs. Garcia-Lopez Gustao Elias actually leads this H2H 2-1 and all two of the three meetings ended in three sets. (Elias won 2-0 the other meeting.  These...

Top Half Section 1 2 Roger Federer vs. 57 Dusan Lajovic -Federer leads H2H 1-0 winning last year in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon 7-6(0), 6-3, 6-2 94 Lukas Lacko vs. 285 Benjamin Bonzi - First Meeting 100 Mikahil Youzhny vs.  112 Ivo Karlovic -Youzhny leads H2H 4-1, they split on Grass at Halle ('17 Youzhny won, '14 Karlovic won) 36 Leonardo Mayer vs. 65 Jan-Lennard Struff -Mayer leads H2H 2-1, Mayer won only meeting on Grass ('13) 24 Adrian Mannarino vs. 169 Christian Garin -First Meeting 58 Ryan Harrison vs. 74 Roberto Carballes Baena -First Meeting 69 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. 118 Gustao Elias -Elias leads H2H 2-1 all on Clay 21 Bernd Coric vs. 59 Daniil Medvedev -Coric leads H2H 1-0  Section 2 13 Sam Querrey vs. 99 Jordan Thompson -Querrey leads H2H 1-0 47 Joao Sousa vs.  109 Sergiy Stakhovsky -Sousa leads H2H 2-1 all on Hard 86 Paolo Lorenzi vs. 101 Laslo Djere  -Djere leads H2H 4-2 including winning the last...

Seed Player Odds Best Wimbledon Rec @ Wim Main Grass % Total Grass % 2018 Rec Best Surface Age Nation 1 Roger Federer 7/4 Winner (8 Times) 91-11 168-24 87.5% 176-27 86.7% 21-2 Fast (Hard/Grass) 36 SUI 2 Rafael Nadal 15/2 Winner (2 Times) 43-10 61-18 77.2% 61-18 77.2% 28-2 Clay 32 ESP 3 Marin Cilic 13/2 Final ('17) 27-10 60-26 69.8% 70-27 72.2% 20-9 Fast (Hard/Grass) 29 CRO 4 Alexander Zverev 16/1 Round of 16 ('17) 6-3 20-10 66.7% 20-10 66.7% 31-8 Soft (Clay/Grass) 21 GER 5 Juan Martin del Potro 18/1 Semifinal ('13) 17-8 35-16 68.6% 35-16 68.6% 28-7 All-Rounder 29 ARG 6 Grigor Dimitrov 33/1 Semifinal ('14) 15-8 34-22 60.7% 39-26 60.0% 18-11 All-Rounder 27 BUL 7 Dominic Thiem 40/1 Round of 16 ('17) 5-4 13-11 54.2% 14-12 53.8% 33-9 Clay 24 AUT 8 Kevin Anderson 50/1 Round of 16 (3 Times) 12-9 30-23 56.6% 40-28 58.8% 23-9 Hard 32 RSA 9 John Isner 80/1 Round of 32 (3 Times) 10-9 39-22 63.9% 39-22 63.9% 14-11 Fast (Hard/Grass) 33 USA 10 David Goffin 80/1 Round o...