Hamburg Open 7/25

Welcome back to another ATP breakdown.  We set our sights on the German Open taking place in Hamburg.  Wednesday and Thursday's matchups will be in the Round of 16.  We have seen some upsets as the three lowest ranked players pulled first round upsets.  Let's jump into the eight matchups and see if we can find any value.

Rank	Nat	Player	2018 Rec	Clay	%	Last Result	Opponent	H2H
8	AUT	Dominic Thiem	39-13	198-68	74.44%	Hamburg 1R - Moutet 2:0	50 Millman R16	3-0
12	ARG	Diego Schwartzman	24-16	404-193	67.67%	Hamburg 1R - Ruud 2:1	349 Masur R16	0-0
13	ESP	Pablo Carreno Busta	25-18	452-237	65.60%	Hamburg 1R - F. Mayer 2:1	80 Bedene R16	2-3
22	ITA	Marco Cecchinato	40-20	346-184	65.28%	Hamburg 1R - Monfils 1:2	-	-
24	BIH	Damir Dzumhur	18-20	223-115	65.98%	Hamburg 1R - Kovalik 0:2	-	-
25	GER	Phillip Kohlschreiber	20-18	243-167	59.27%	Hamburg 1R - Basilashvili 1:2	-	-
28	FRA	Richard Gasquet	28-15	206-91	69.36%	Hamburg 1R - Paire 2:0	69 Jarry R16	0-0
33	ESP	Fernando Verdasco	21-18	272-156	63.55%	Hamburg 1R - Lajovic 2:1	146 Monteiro R16	1-0
36	ARG	Leonardo Mayer	16-17	301-189	61.43%	Hamburg 1R - Ramos-Vinolas 2:0	37 Monfils R16	0-3
37	FRA	Gael Monfils	22-14	176-96	64.71%	Hamburg 1R - Cecchinato 2:1	36 L. Mayer R16	3-0
39	FRA	Gilles Simon	24-19	212-141	60.06%	Hamburg 1R - Monteiro 0:2	-	-
40	ESP	Albert Ramos Vinolas	20-20	488-288	62.89%	Hamburg 1R - L. Mayer 0:2	-	-
44	GER	Peter Gojowczyk	20-16	169-132	56.15%	Hamburg 1R - Jarry 0:2	-	-
47	GER	Maximilian Marterer	25-19	118-69	63.10%	Hamburg 1R - Masur 0:2	-	-
49	HUN	Marton Fucsovics	27-21	134-90	59.82%	Hamburg 1R - Cuevas 0:2	-	-
50	AUS	John Millman	30-17	82-57	58.99%	Hamburg 1R - Struff 2:0	8 Thiem R16	0-3
51	GER	Jan-Lennard Struff	15-19	259-145	64.59%	Hamburg 1R - Millman 0:2	-	-
52	FRA	Benoit Paire	20-22	222-150	59.68%	Hamburg 1R - Gasquet 0:2	-	-
62	ESP	David Ferrer	9-15	374-163	69.65%	Hamburg 1R - Molleker 1:2	-	-
63	SRB	Dusan Lajovic	25-19	300-181	62.37%	Hamburg 1R - Verdasco 1:2	-	-
69	CHI	Nicolas Jarry	21-15	184-95	65.95%	Hamburg 1R - Gojowczyk 2:0	28 Gasquet R16	0-0
72	URU	Pablo Cuevas	23-17	448-223	66.77%	Hamburg 1R - Fucsovics 2:0	81 Basilashvili R16	1-1
80	SLO	Aljaz Bedene	20-15	277-111	71.39%	Hamburg 1R - Laaksonen 2:1	13 Carreno Busta R16	3-2
81	GEO	Nikoloz Basilashvili	22-23	136-95	58.87%	Hamburg 1R - Kohlschreiber 2:1	72 Cuevas R16	1-1
94	GER	Florian Mayer	9-20	272-163	62.53%	Hamburg 1R - Carreno Busta 1:2	-	-
113	SVK	Jozef Kovalik	36-18	247-145	63.01%	Hamburg 1R - Dzumhur 2:0	272 Molleker R16	0-0
119	FRA	Corentin Moutet	24-22	107-45	70.39%	Hamburg 1R - Thiem 0:2	-	-
135	SWI	Henri Laaksonen	16-24	150-125	54.55%	Hamburg 1R - Bedene 1:2	-	-
141	NOR	Casper Ruud	29-20	93-54	63.27%	Hamburg 1R - Schwartzman 1:2	-	-
146	BRA	Thiago Monteiro	23-23	229-157	59.79%	Hamburg 1R - Simon 2:0	33 Verdasco R16	0-1
272	GER	Rudolf Molleker	24-14	37-17	68.52%	Hamburg 1R - Ferrer 2:1	113 Kovalik R16	0-0
349	GER	Daniel Masur	35-19	99-66	60.00%	Hamburg 1R - Marterer 2:0	12 Schwartzman R16	0-0

33 Fernando Verdasco (-240) vs. 146 Thiago Monteiro (+200)

72 Pablo Cuevas (-255) vs. 81 Nikoloz Basilashvili (+215)

13 Pablo Carreno Busta (-140) vs. 80 Aljaz Bedene (+120)

12 Diego Schwartzman (-480) vs. 349 Daniel Masur (+383)

113 Jozef Kovalik (-235) vs. 272 Rudolf Molleker (+195)

36 Leonardo Mayer (+145) vs. 37 Gael Monfils (-165)

8 Dominic Thiem (-490) vs. 50 John Millman (+390)

28 Richard Gasquet (-240) vs. 69 Nicolas Jarry (+200)

Play I Like

Bedene +120 vs. Carreno Busta
Aljaz Bedene is a Clay specialist posting a 71.4% winning percentage over his career.  Carreno Busta isn't too shabby himself at 65.6%.  Bedene has the head-to-head advantage 3-2, with all the matches being played on Clay.  Amazingly all five matches have came down to a decisive third set (one five set match at the 2016 French Open).  The two have met twice this year splitting the meetings in Rome and Rio de Janeiro.  This match will likely require a third set and I think Bedene can grind out a victory at plus-odds.

Bonus Parlay

As I like a lot of favorites to get the job done, I will also be making a parlay of favorites that I like.  This parlay pays out around 5.5 to 1 and I will be backing it.

Verdasco

Cuevas

Schwartzman

Monfils

Thiem

Gasquet

As always I appreciate the read and you can always reach out to me on Twitter @DekeMathews with any feedback you have!