Week 3 CFB Early Look

Baylor CB Harrison Hand and company will look to feast on
a backup QB against Duke this week

Welcome back to the third installment of my College Football early look.  For Week 2, I ended up winning a little over two units after some of the late games didn't swing my way.  The matchups I wrote about ended up going 9-7 last week with Duke, Kansas, and Colorado State all winning straight up as underdogs.  I had moneyline wagers on Duke and Kansas at nice payouts.  After posting my weekly articles, I usually end up adding several plays later in the week.  If you want to see all of my plays, including other sports and NFL, download the Action Network app and follow my plays here (mobile-only link).  

We enter Week 3 and I feel that I have a really good grasp on many of the teams going forward with a two game sample size.  Around 3:00 every Sunday, BetOnline releases lines and this week especially I wanted to get early action on what spreads jumped off the page differing from my power ratings.  I also like several teams that have a great situation in which the market overadjusted for last weekend's results.

Early Plays Already Locked In

Indiana -14 vs. Ball State

Ball State gave Notre Dame a game a little too close for comfort.  I wrote about the hangover effect on this team after the big Michigan win and that Ball State would cover the spread and keep it tighter than the Irish would have wanted.  That game was more about Notre Dame having a bit of a let down than what Ball State did and Indiana will throttle the Cardinals this week.

Toledo +9.5 vs. Miami (FL)

Miami relies way too much on turnover havoc to cover up that this is not a very good team (Rosier is not a good QB whatsoever).  Toledo is an elite MAC team year in and year out and will come to play against better competition.  It helps that Miami has to come to Ohio for this one and I have Miami as only a six point favorite.

North Carolina +14.5 vs. UCF

Whether it was suspensions or unpreparedness, North Carolina got smacked by East Carolina last week.  The Tar Heels get some players back as some had two game suspensions and others have staggered suspensions.  This group of players have a lot more potential than they showed last week and will bounce back.  My power ratings have this spread being UCF -2.7 on the road in Chapel Hill.  This is a tricky game for UCF and I love that I was able to get UNC at +14.5.

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

The Irish had an inevitable letdown against Ball State but will bounce back this week against a Vandy team that I think has some glaring holes.

Oklahoma State -3 vs. Boise State

Boise State makes the trip to Stillwater in a huge matchup with Oklahoma State.  I have Oklahoma State favored by 10.12 points in this matchup.  Boise State will not catch Oklahoma State by surprise here.

Baylor PK vs. Duke

This game opened up at Duke -4! With Duke losing its QB and top defender as well as another starter, Baylor is in an amazing spot here.  I tried to bet this game three separate times and the line kept moving as sharps were slamming it.  I ended up getting it at a pick'em and at the time of writing Baylor has moved all the way to -6 on BetOnline!  Unbelievable value getting it at a pick'em and my favorite play of the week.

Auburn -10.5 vs. LSU

I'm not buying LSU and QB Joe Burrow.  He looked horrible last week as they struggled against SE Louisiana.  The 31-0 scoreline does not accurately represent the game.  LSU had a Hail Mary come through at the end of the first half and SE Louisiana actually had more first downs than LSU.  QB Joe Burrow went 10-20 passing to increase his completion percentage on the year to a laughable 47.7%.  LSU has benefited from not having a turnover yet, but Auburn's defense will change that.  Auburn big here.

North Texas +7.5 @ Arkansas

Arkansas is as bad as they seem.  Lowly Colorado State came back to beat the Razorbacks and the injury to top defensive player Dre Greenlaw was felt.  North Texas QB Mason Fine will have a field day and I will definitely be looking at the over in this game as well. 

Florida -19.5 vs. Colorado State

Kentucky finally did it.  One of the most ridiculous streaks in the country is finally over as Kentucky defeated the Gators 27-16 (Kentucky returned a fumble for a touchdown as time expired).  I truly believe Coach Dan Mullen will get Florida's program back to being a perennial powerhouse, but it won't be easy this year.  The Gators will build some confidence back up here against a terrible Colorado State team.  Florida covers and wins comfortably.

I am actively going through every other matchup to see what other spots I like.  One spot that I am super intrigued about is Hawaii traveling to Army for a 12:00 kickoff.  Hawaii is 3-0 and a huge surprise team.  However, I really like the spot Army is in to deal the Rainbow Warriors their first loss.  The 12:00 Eastern Time kickoff will be tough on Hawaii's players as it is 6:00 A.M. back in Hawaii.  It'll take a big adjustment for the players and coaching staff and I will most likely be getting some action on Army.

Thanks again for the read and stay tuned for more plays and breakdowns throughout the College Football season.