Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 4 CFB

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Welcome back to the second installment of my Trusty Treble College Football picks.  Last week's column went 2-1 as Indiana and Texas covered comfortably, while our underdog in the perfect sandwich spot ULM wasn't able to get the job done.  This week, I'll give you an insight on my top three plays and hopefully we can go 2-1 (or better) again this week.

1. Wisconsin -3 @ Iowa

I absolutely love this spot for the Badgers.  Last week they lost at home against BYU 24-21 in a shocker.  If you read into the box score however, they definitely outplayed the Cougars.  Wisconsin out-gained BYU by 83 yards and had six more first downs.  BYU benefited from a +1 in the turnover battle and Wisconsin missed a game tying 42 yard field goal late in the game to possibly send the game into overtime.  When Vegas released its "Game of the Year" spreads during the summer, Wisconsin was favored by 10 against the Hawkeyes and I 100% believe that's what the line would have been if Wisconsin had not been upset last week.  

Iowa has caused some upsets over the years at Kinnick Stadium in night games.  Last season they defeated Ohio State 55-24, lost at the buzzer against Penn State by 2, and beat #2 Michigan in 2016.  All of this must mean, the Badgers should be on upset alert in this situation right?  Not quite.  

Iowa has lost five out of the last six matchups for the Heartland Trophy.  Also in this series, the visitor has won eight out of the last 11 matchups.  Last season, Iowa came off the dismantling of Ohio State and lost 17-9.  Wisconsin dominated that game with a 423-236 edge in yards even though they only won by eight.  Wisconsin has my #1 rated Offensive Line and come into this game averaging 285 yards per game on the ground.  RB Jonathan Taylor will have another big game even though Iowa's rush defense has looking pretty good to start the season.  The big question mark I have about this Wisconsin team is Quarterback Alex Hornibrook.  If he can play the role of a game manager without turning the ball over, I see them rolling in this situation.

One more key stat that makes me love the Badgers even more in this matchup.  Coach Paul Chryst has lost only seven times as head coach of Wisconsin.  In the seven games coming off a loss, Chryst has gone a perfect 7-0 against the spread.  He will have his team ready to play in a huge Big Ten West matchup.

2. Western Michigan -7 @ Georgia State

MAC vs. Sun Belt, now this is the type of matchup that should have you salivating come Saturday.  Georgia State plays its home games at the old home of the Atlanta Braves, where Turner Field once stood.  They are currently building a more team-friendly stadium, as the current environment doesn't really provide any advantage at all.  Last season, Georgia State went 1-4 at home and were out-gained by an average of 73 yards per game.  The huge mismatch in this game is Western Michigan's rushing offense against Georgia State's run defense.  WMU averages 202 yards per game, while GSU gives up a whopping 235 yards per game.  My power ratings have Western Michigan being favored by 14.22 in this matchup, and the touchdown spread has a ton of value.

3. TCU @ Texas +3.5

We have a repeat resident in the Trusty Treble and it might as well be a team starting with a T.  Texas is back in the column after a strong second half to defeat USC 37-14 last week as one of my top plays and I am going back to the well here against TCU.  

TCU has owned Texas since joining the Big 12 to the tune of a 5-1 record.  However, TCU comes into Austin for their third road game in three weeks (includes a neutral site matchup at AT&T Stadium in Arlington last week against Ohio State).  Last week, they lost a gut-wrenching 40-28 matchup with Ohio State after leading at halftime 14-13.  

Texas is coming off a game where they limited USC to an amazing -5 yards rushing.  I still have faith in Tom Herman's Longhorns going forward after they disappointed for the second straight year in the opener against Maryland.  Texas will be the fresher team as this will be the Longhorns third consecutive home game.  I have Texas QB Sam Ehlinger winning the battle against his counterpart Shawn Robinson and Texas winning the game outright.

My Other Action (So Far)

  • Florida Atlantic @ UCF Under 76
  • Washington State +4.5 @ USC
  • Nevada +10.5 @ Toledo
  • Missouri +14.5 vs. Georgia
  • Michigan -18.5 vs. Nebraska
  • Tulane +37 @ Ohio State
  • Florida State -10 vs. Northern Illinois
  • Liberty +14 vs. North Texas
  • Oregon -1.5 vs. Stanford & ML +110
    • I have Oregon being favored by 5.5 here and thought the market would adjust but the public LOVES Stanford as the higher ranked team, so I hit the moneyline as well for Oregon when it got to plus money
  • South Alabama @ Memphis Under 67
  • North Carolina +140 vs. Pittsburgh
  • Marshall +6.5 vs. NC State

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