Week 2 CFB Early Look

It was quite the roller coaster ride during Week 1 of the College Football season.  I added several late plays to my card and ended up with slightly more action than I had planned.  There are so many variables and unknowns at the start of the football season.  I adjusted my model accordingly without overreacting to some of the surprising results.  As the season progresses, I like to think I have a better grasp on each team.  I ended up winning 0.83 units after all of the action I had in what could have been a much more profitable day.  My model went 72-12 straight up and an even 40-40-1 against the spread.  I am expecting more accurate spread results this week as we have some more data to work with and less unknowns.

Going forward, I am going to provide the spread information from Vegas and my model for the following week's slate of games usually by Monday or Tuesday.  I will be including only FBS matchups for my model projection as I feel they are far more accurate.  I will then have an article breaking down the plays I like later in the week.

Friday, September 7

8:00

TCU (-20) @ SMU

Model: TCU -15.03

Saturday, September 8

12:00

New Mexico @ Wisconsin (-34.5)

Mississippi State's QB Nick Fitzgerald will return
after a one game suspension to face Kansas State.

Model: Wisconsin -30.6

Western Michigan @ Michigan (-28.5)

Model: Michigan -27.26

Mississippi State (-10) @ Kansas State

Model: Mississippi State -12.96

Towson @ Wake Forest (-32.5)

Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (-14)

Model: Purdue -8.97

Liberty @ Army (-9.5)

Model: Army -10.35

Nevada @ Vanderbilt (-9.5)

Model: Vanderbilt -5.99

Arizona @ Houston (-4)

Model: Arizona -4

Duke @ Northwestern (-2)

Model: Duke -2.29

Georgia Tech (-3.5) @ South Florida

Model: Georgia Tech -3.15

12:30

Georgia State @ NC State (-24)

Model: NC State -24.88

1:00

UCLA @ Oklahoma (-30)

Model: Oklahoma -21.32

Holy Cross @ Boston College (-43.5)

2:00

William & Mary @ Virginia Tech (-36.5)

Portland State @ Oregon (-47.5)

Air Force @ Florida Atlantic (-7)

Model: Florida Atlantic -15.47

3:00

Kansas @ Central Michigan (-6)

Model: Kansas -4.97

3:30

Arkansas State @ Alabama (-37.5)

Model: Alabama -32.3

Georgia (-9.5) @ South Carolina

Model: Georgia -7.42

Rutgers @ Ohio State (-33)

Model: Ohio State -32.17

Ball State @ Notre Dame (-33.5)

Model: Notre Dame -37.33

Colorado @ Nebraska (-5)

Model: Nebraska -2.48

Buffalo @ Temple (-5)

Model: Temple -4.61

Memphis (-4.5) @ Navy

Model: Memphis -5.56

North Carolina (-14.5) @ East Carolina

Model: North Carolina -19.33

Wagner @ Syracuse (-43)

Howard @ Kent State (-10.5)

Morgan State @ Akron (-37)

4:00

Lamar @ Texas Tech (-42.5)

Southern Illinois @ Ole Miss (-29)

East Tennessee State @ Tennessee (-37.5)

5:00

North Dakota @ Washington (-43)

Iowa State @ Iowa (-4)

Model: Iowa State -0.46

6:00

Savannah State @ Miami (FL) (-54.5)

Youngstown State @ West Virginia (-25)

South Carolina State @ UCF (-45.5)

Maryland (-15) @ Bowling Green

Model: Maryland -11.03

Massachusetts @ Georgia Southern (-1.5)

Model: Georgia Southern -1.83

Appalachian State (-14) @ Charlotte

Model: Appalachian State -8.75

7:00

Eastern Kentucky @ Marshall (-27.5)

Clemson (-13.5) @ Texas A&M

Model: Clemson -15.69

SE Louisiana @ LSU (-38.5)

UT Martin @ Middle Tennessee (-17.5)

Southern @ Louisiana Tech (-35.5)

ULM @ Southern Miss (-6)

Model: Southern Miss -0.89

UAB (-9) @ Coastal Carolina

Model: UAB -11.67

Baylor (-13.5) @ UTSA 

Model: Baylor -20.28

Indiana State @ Louisville (-44.5)

Wyoming @ Missouri (-16.5)

Model: Missouri -14.64

Texas Southern @ Texas State (-28.5)

Florida A&M @ Troy (-37.5)

7:20

Samford @ Florida State (-31.5)

7:30

Alabama State @ Auburn (-53.5)

Western Illinois @ Illinois (-8)

Virginia @ Indiana (-6)

Model: Indiana -1.14

Arkansas (-12.5) @ Colorado State

Model: Arkansas -10.18

Kentucky @ Florida (-11)

Model: Florida -11.85

Utah (-10) @ Northern Illinois 

Model: Utah -12.43

Maine @ Western Kentucky (-9.5)

FIU @ Old Dominion (-1)

Model: Old Dominion -4.84

Incarnate Word @ North Texas (-37.5)

Fresno State @ Minnesota (-3)

Model: Minnesota -3.21

8:00

Penn State (-10.5) @ Pittsburgh

Model: Penn State -10.26

Tulsa @ Texas (-22)

Model: Texas -18.73

New Mexico State @ Utah State (-18)

Model: Utah State -16.59

South Alabama @ Oklahoma State (-31.5)

Model: Oklahoma State -30.62

Nicholls State @ Tulane (-19.5)

Southern Utah @ Oregon State (-7.5)

Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH) (-1.5) *Game at Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati Bengals Stadium)

Model: Miami (OH) -7

8:30

USC @ Stanford (-6)

Model: Stanford -6.16

9:00

UTEP @ UNLV (-22.5)

Model: UNLV -16.71

Sacramento State @ San Diego State (-26.5)

10:15

Connecticut @ Boise State (-33.5)

Model: Boise State -24.04

California @ BYU (-1.5)

Model: BYU -1.2

10:45

Michigan State (-7.5) @ Arizona State

Model: Michigan State -9.68

11:00

San Jose State @ Washington State (-36.5)

Model: Washington State -27.94

12:00

Rice @ Hawaii (-16)

Model: Hawaii -9.52

Biggest Discrepancies

1. Kansas +6 at Central Michigan (10.97 difference)

*Potential bounce back spot for Kansas after losing to Nicholls State

*Central Michigan needed five turnovers to cover late against Kentucky

2. Connecticut +33.5 at Boise State (8.96 difference)

*Since 2011, Boise State has the 3rd worst home record against the spread at 14-30

3. UCLA +30 at Oklahoma (8.68 difference) 

*Potential hangover spot for Oklahoma after big win against Florida Atlantic

4. San Jose State +36.5 at Washington State (8.56 difference)

*Potential hangover spot for Washington State after big win against Wyoming

5. Florida Atlantic -7 vs. Air Force (8.47 difference)

*Potential bounce back spot for Florida Atlantic after Oklahoma blowout

Upset Alert

1. Arizona +4 at Houston

*My line: Arizona -4

2. Duke +2 at Northwestern

*My line: Duke -2.29

3. Kansas +6 at Central Michigan

*My line: Kansas -4.97

4. Iowa State +4 at Iowa

*My line: Iowa State -0.46