Week 2 College Football Plays
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Note: All lines taken from Bovada as of 9/6 and games are listed in order of time, not confidence.
Mississippi State @ Kansas State
Play: Mississippi State -9.5
Current Line: Mississippi State -8.5
Mississippi State comes into this matchup as my #11 ranked team in terms of power ratings. I am very high on Joe Moorhead's ability as a head coach and the talent he inherited. Last week, the team took care of business against FCS Stephen F. Austin 63-6 without starting QB Nick Fitzgerald (Suspended). Keytaon Thompson threw for 364 yards and five touchdowns on just 13 completions (13/31).
Kansas State struggled mightily against FCS South Dakota winning 27-24, while being -4 in the turnover column. I am very low on this Kansas State team and have them going 6-6 on the season by my projections. The Wildcats don't have a distinct #1 QB as Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson both looked shaky as they split time in the opener.
In the S&P+ rankings through week 1, Mississippi State sits at #6 while Kansas State is all the way down at #60. On a neutral field S&P+ has Mississippi State as 27.2 point favorites! That is not quite the differential I have in my power rankings, but it definitely says something about the two teams. Even with the game being played Bill Snyder Family Stadium, bet on Mississippi State to be coming out ready to roll the Wildcats.
Current Line: Mississippi State -8.5
Mississippi State comes into this matchup as my #11 ranked team in terms of power ratings. I am very high on Joe Moorhead's ability as a head coach and the talent he inherited. Last week, the team took care of business against FCS Stephen F. Austin 63-6 without starting QB Nick Fitzgerald (Suspended). Keytaon Thompson threw for 364 yards and five touchdowns on just 13 completions (13/31).
Kansas State struggled mightily against FCS South Dakota winning 27-24, while being -4 in the turnover column. I am very low on this Kansas State team and have them going 6-6 on the season by my projections. The Wildcats don't have a distinct #1 QB as Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson both looked shaky as they split time in the opener.
In the S&P+ rankings through week 1, Mississippi State sits at #6 while Kansas State is all the way down at #60. On a neutral field S&P+ has Mississippi State as 27.2 point favorites! That is not quite the differential I have in my power rankings, but it definitely says something about the two teams. Even with the game being played Bill Snyder Family Stadium, bet on Mississippi State to be coming out ready to roll the Wildcats.
Nevada @ Vanderbilt
Play: Nevada +9
Current Line: Nevada +9
I liked QB Ty Gangi and company to cover against Portland State and they came through for me to the tune of a 72-19 beatdown. They posted 636 yards of total offense and come into the game with some confidence. They face a tough Vanderbilt team who is coming off a blowout win against Middle Tennessee 35-7. I had faith in the Blue Raiders and Brent Stockstill, but the Commodore defense wrecked havoc and only gave up 294 yards. Vanderbilt was actually -2 in first downs in the game and benefited having two more turnovers than MTSU.
I think we see a bit of a let down after the beatdown Vandy put on MTSU. Nevada will come into the game with the offensive power to push the Vandy defense and put up points. I see the game being close in its entirety and coming down to a touchdown or less, so give me the Wolfpack at +9.
Current Line: Nevada +9
I liked QB Ty Gangi and company to cover against Portland State and they came through for me to the tune of a 72-19 beatdown. They posted 636 yards of total offense and come into the game with some confidence. They face a tough Vanderbilt team who is coming off a blowout win against Middle Tennessee 35-7. I had faith in the Blue Raiders and Brent Stockstill, but the Commodore defense wrecked havoc and only gave up 294 yards. Vanderbilt was actually -2 in first downs in the game and benefited having two more turnovers than MTSU.
I think we see a bit of a let down after the beatdown Vandy put on MTSU. Nevada will come into the game with the offensive power to push the Vandy defense and put up points. I see the game being close in its entirety and coming down to a touchdown or less, so give me the Wolfpack at +9.
Liberty @ Army
Play: Liberty +10
Current Line: Liberty +8
Current Line: Liberty +8
First year FBS team Liberty made some noise in week 1. They demolished Old Dominion 52-10 as a touchdown underdog. QB Stephen Calvert threw for 345 yards and four touchdowns in the rout. I am riding the Flames again this week as they travel to West Point.
This is not your grandfather's Army team. Last season, Army threw the ball a total of 63 times all season! In the 34-14 opener loss to Duke, QB Kelvin Hopkins threw the ball 21 times, completing 10. The scoreboard actually should have been closer as the Black Knights were only out-gained by 16 yards over the course of the game. Army had a net of four close wins a season ago and I can see some regression coming this season. I like Liberty +10 here and it wouldn't surprise me if the Flames caused another upset to win outright.
Duke @ Northwestern
Play: Duke +3Current Line: Duke +3
I was on both of these teams last week, but that was mainly due to their opponents. A lot of people were high on Purdue coming into the season and I do think they will be an improved team. However, the defense was anemic as they only returned four starters. One bright spot for the Boilermakers was freshman WR Rondale Moore who stole the Thursday night spotlight with several electric plays. After a road Big Ten victory to start the year, Northwestern will return to Ryan Field for its home opener. RB Jeremy Larkin looked like a very capable replacement for Northwestern All-Time Rushing Leader Justin Jackson, who graduated last season. Larkin ran for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Clayton Thorson (returning from ACL) and TJ Green rotated at quarterback and both played pretty well although the team didn't have a passing touchdown. What really stuck out to me from the game was that Northwestern was actually out-gained by 71 yards. They benefitted from a +3 in the turnover margin and held on for the victory.
This week I have Duke being favored on the road so I will take the three points. One downside from the opener was that they only out-gained Army by 16 yards even with the scoreline being a 20 point victory. If QB Daniel Jones comes to play and gets the passing and running game going, I can see Duke putting up some points and relying on its defense to hinder the potent Northwestern offense.
Arizona @ Houston
Play: Arizona +4.5
Current Line: Arizona +3.5
I was on BYU +14 last week, but I honestly didn't see BYU actually winning the game against Arizona. Heisman-hopeful QB Khalil Tate underwhelmed going 17/34 for 197 yards and a touchdown through the air. Usually his legs spark the offense as well but he had eight carries for only 14 yards, although he did rush for a touchdown. Kevin Sumlin's start at Arizona got off to a horrible start, but I see the Wildcats in a bounce back spot here against Houston. Khalil Tate is going to be a problem for the Cougars as they allowed 439 yards to lowly Rice last week in a 45-27 victory. Surefire First Round pick Ed Oliver is a monster, but he can't do it all for this defense. I can see this game being a shootout with Arizona getting a much needed bounce back victory on the road.
Current Line: Arizona +3.5
I was on BYU +14 last week, but I honestly didn't see BYU actually winning the game against Arizona. Heisman-hopeful QB Khalil Tate underwhelmed going 17/34 for 197 yards and a touchdown through the air. Usually his legs spark the offense as well but he had eight carries for only 14 yards, although he did rush for a touchdown. Kevin Sumlin's start at Arizona got off to a horrible start, but I see the Wildcats in a bounce back spot here against Houston. Khalil Tate is going to be a problem for the Cougars as they allowed 439 yards to lowly Rice last week in a 45-27 victory. Surefire First Round pick Ed Oliver is a monster, but he can't do it all for this defense. I can see this game being a shootout with Arizona getting a much needed bounce back victory on the road.
UCLA @ Oklahoma
Play: UCLA +30
Current Line: UCLA +30
Current Line: UCLA +30
Oklahoma is coming off an absolute dismantling of Lane Kiffin's Florida Atlantic Owls. This is a prime hangover effect situation. Oklahoma will definitely win this game handily, but 30 points is a ton for Chip Kelly and company. Wilton Speight getting injured might be a blessing in disguise because he doesn't fit Chip Kelly's offense whatsoever. True freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson got his feet wet in the last game going 15/25 with 117 yards. I think going forward, he will improve in Chip Kelly's system. UCLA faces the top schedule in the nation and Cincinnati was supposed to be one of the wins for this team. It could be a long year for the Bruins but I believe they cover the spread against Oklahoma.
Kansas @ Central Michigan
Play: Kansas +4.5
Current Line: Kansas +5
Current Line: Kansas +5
Kansas Head Coach David Beatty is 3-33 in his 4th year here. This is a must win game for him to keep his job in my opinion. After losing to Nicholls State 26-23 and only rushing for 56 yards, something has to give. If Kansas can get its offense going with QB Peyton Bender, they should be able to exploit Central Michigan's defense.
Central Michigan returns six defensive starters and only four offensive starters from last season. I am very low on the Chippewas and believe they will finish in the basement of the MAC West. The only lost 35-20 at Kentucky, but they were out-gained by 172 yards and benefited from a +4 turnover margin. They also had 16 less first downs than Kentucky. QB Troy Poljan went 17/27 for 137 yards and led the team in rushes (16) and rushing yards (47). If they can't establish a rushing attack against Kansas, I believe it'll be a long day with Kansas not only covering the spread but getting the outright victory.
Arkansas State @ Alabama
Play: Arkansas State +37
Current Line: Arkansas State +37
Arkansas State has a veteran QB in Justice Hansen, who is the reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year. They are coming off a comfortable 48-21 victory over FCS SE Missouri State in which they had 685 yards of total offense and had 400 more yards than their opponent despite being -3 in turnovers. This is a very solid Group of 5 team that I have winning the SBC (over Appalachian State).
I think every other team watching the Alabama/Louisville game was sadly disappointed that Tua Tagovailoa is for real. No matter what Nick Saban says, Tua will be the starter going forward. Alabama hasn't had a prolific QB in really long time and it will be interesting to see what they are capable with such a strong defense as well.
Alabama is always susceptible to a slight let down in Week 2 after a big non-conference victory. In past years, they have struggled to cover spreads after a big neutral site opener ('15 Middle Tennessee 37-10, '16 Western Kentucky 38-10, '17 Fresno State 41-10). All of these games were big wins; however, none of the wins covered the spread. Alabama will win this game very comfortably, but I will go with the trend of prior seasons and take Arkansas State with the points.
Current Line: Arkansas State +37
Arkansas State has a veteran QB in Justice Hansen, who is the reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year. They are coming off a comfortable 48-21 victory over FCS SE Missouri State in which they had 685 yards of total offense and had 400 more yards than their opponent despite being -3 in turnovers. This is a very solid Group of 5 team that I have winning the SBC (over Appalachian State).
I think every other team watching the Alabama/Louisville game was sadly disappointed that Tua Tagovailoa is for real. No matter what Nick Saban says, Tua will be the starter going forward. Alabama hasn't had a prolific QB in really long time and it will be interesting to see what they are capable with such a strong defense as well.
Alabama is always susceptible to a slight let down in Week 2 after a big non-conference victory. In past years, they have struggled to cover spreads after a big neutral site opener ('15 Middle Tennessee 37-10, '16 Western Kentucky 38-10, '17 Fresno State 41-10). All of these games were big wins; however, none of the wins covered the spread. Alabama will win this game very comfortably, but I will go with the trend of prior seasons and take Arkansas State with the points.
Georgia @ South Carolina
Play: Over 57
Current Over/Under: Over 56
Both teams come into the game 1-0 with big wins against poor teams. Georgia's offense looked very strong and I am a big fan of RB D'Andre Swift. He's an extremely electric player that only needs a small seem to take it to the house. South Carolina's offense looked good as well and I'm glad to see WR Deebo Samuel back on the field after missing most of last season due to injury. Both teams have some serious weapons on offense that will be make for a really exciting matchup.
On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia had to replace a lot this year. Losing LB Roquan Smith was a huge loss as he was the leader of this defense. With only five returning starters this group will be inexperienced to start the year, but they are talented enough to be a real force by the end of the season. South Carolina isn't quite as loaded as they've been in the past. South Carolina is usually characterized by tough defense and low scores, but that just won't be the case this year. The offense is potent and the defense lacks the big names of the past. I don't think either defense will be able to get many stops and I expect a shootout in this one with Georgia winning.
Ball State @ Notre Dame
Play: Ball State +34.5
Current Line: Ball State +34.5
Current Line: Ball State +34.5
Notre Dame looked really good last week against my Wolverines. Defensive Coordinator Clark Lea had the perfect gameplan drawing up exotic blitz packages to confuse Michigan's Offensive Line. He never let QB Shea Patterson get comfortable and they won the game in the trenches. I suspect a huge hangover effect from that win this week against Ball State. Ball State returns nine offensive starters and seven defensive starters. They looked good against Central Connecticut State winning 42-6 and covering the spread. I'm not saying this game will be a nail-biter, but I see Notre Dame getting up and Ball State hanging around 21 points down the entire game.
Iowa State @ Iowa
Play: Iowa State +4
Current Line: Iowa State +4
The Cy-Hawk Trophy (awarded to the winner of this matchup) has been decided by six or less points in five of the last seven years. Iowa is 4-1 in the last five meetings and won in an OT thriller last season. Iowa State had its opener postponed, while Iowa smoked Northern Illinois 33-7. Iowa went 4-2-1 last year against the spread at home and have been a tough out when visitors come to Kinnick Stadium. I think Iowa State is the better team in this matchup. Iowa's Nathan Stanley didn't play well in Week 1 going 11/23 for 108 yards with a touchdown and an interception. I think Iowa State keeps it close the entire game and ends up winning the game on the road against the Hawkeyes.
Current Line: Iowa State +4
The Cy-Hawk Trophy (awarded to the winner of this matchup) has been decided by six or less points in five of the last seven years. Iowa is 4-1 in the last five meetings and won in an OT thriller last season. Iowa State had its opener postponed, while Iowa smoked Northern Illinois 33-7. Iowa went 4-2-1 last year against the spread at home and have been a tough out when visitors come to Kinnick Stadium. I think Iowa State is the better team in this matchup. Iowa's Nathan Stanley didn't play well in Week 1 going 11/23 for 108 yards with a touchdown and an interception. I think Iowa State keeps it close the entire game and ends up winning the game on the road against the Hawkeyes.
Appalachian State @ Charlotte
Play: Charlotte +14
Current Line: Charlotte +14
Current Line: Charlotte +14
Appalachian State is coming off an oh-so-close loss in overtime at Happy Valley. They should have won that game, but Penn State showed great perseverance to come back and win in OT. I can see a road letdown for the Mountaineers as an away favorite (1-4 last season against the spread as an away favorite). Charlotte has 18 returning starters and went 3-1 against the spread as a home dog last season (1-11 straight up). App State is the better team all around, but the pesky 49ers will hang around and keep it within two scores.
Arkansas @ Colorado State
Plays: Over 68, Colorado State +14
Current Lines: Over 70, Colorado State +14
Current Lines: Over 70, Colorado State +14
Recommending Colorado State for a third time already this season? I didn't lead with this pick at the top of the article because I know some of you would skip the rest. The Rams are 0-2 straight up and against the spread in their first two games of the season. Now they welcome SEC West foe Arkansas to make the trip to Colorado. Colorado State has allowed 48 points per game to Hawaii & Colorado, so there is no reason Arkansas shouldn't put up a crooked number. The reason I like Colorado State with the spread is that Arkansas lost their heart and soul due to injury in LB Dre Greenlaw. He is listed as day-to-day, but I'm leaning to him not playing. In only one quarter before leaving the game, he provided 10 tackles, two tackles for a loss, and a forced fumble! That is production and havoc you just can't replace. Colorado State's QB KJ Carta Samuels will get more and more comfortable with each game and I think he has a great game. Colorado State keeps it close in a shootout with Arkansas winning by a touchdown.
Virginia @ Indiana
Play: Virginia +7
Current Line: Virginia +6.5
Current Line: Virginia +6.5
Last season Indiana defeated Virginia on the road 34-17 as the Hoosiers stymied the run game for 24 carries and only 55 rushing yards on the afternoon. Virginia passed 66 times that game! Virginia's new QB Bryce Perkins is an Arizona State transfer threw an interception early last week, but responded with 104 yards rushing and four total touchdowns. Indiana's running backs are getting thinner and thinner by the day. Returning starter Morgan Ellison is suspended indefinitely. Week 1 starter Cole Gest was injured and is out for the year. Leading rusher last week was true freshman Stevie Scott who was just the #70 ranked RB in his class. If Virginia can pressure QB Peyton Ramsey and stop the run game, I can see Virginia winning this game straight up.
Connecticut @ Boise State
Play: Connecticut +33.5
Current Line: Connecticut +31.5
Boise State used to be one of the best against the spread at home back in the Jared Zabransky days. Since 2011, the Broncos have only been 13-31 against the spread at home. UConn has actually been a serviceable road dog under Coach Randy Edsall going 23-13 since 2009. Boise State is the much better team especially on defense in this game and they will be looking to one-up UCF after the Knights defeated UConn 56-17 last week. The big thing here is that Boise State has a huge road matchup with Oklahoma State next week and could be looking ahead. I will back the Huskies to cover the 33.5 point spread.
Current Line: Connecticut +31.5
Boise State used to be one of the best against the spread at home back in the Jared Zabransky days. Since 2011, the Broncos have only been 13-31 against the spread at home. UConn has actually been a serviceable road dog under Coach Randy Edsall going 23-13 since 2009. Boise State is the much better team especially on defense in this game and they will be looking to one-up UCF after the Knights defeated UConn 56-17 last week. The big thing here is that Boise State has a huge road matchup with Oklahoma State next week and could be looking ahead. I will back the Huskies to cover the 33.5 point spread.
I am still diving into more games, so stay tuned to my Twitter @DekeMathews and follow me on the Action Network app to see all of my wagers at anytime.
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