Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 9 CFB

Welcome back to the Trusty Treble for Week 9 in College Football.  A little different format this week as I have had a lot on my plate to balance, so I am combining the Early Look with the Trusty Treble.  College Basketball is inching closer and I have been preparing my model for the opening games as well as doing my research on some futures as well.  I also was in the process of writing papers for an online class towards my Level II teaching certification, so this week has been pretty hectic!

Last Saturday was my best day in College Football to date as I absolutely smashed the board.  I usually don't like to toot my own horn, but here's a list of accomplishments from Saturday.

• 17-9-1 (65.3%) Record across all plays
• 2-1 Trusty Treble
• 12-Team ML Parlay Winner
• Purdue ML Winner

Hot take of the week... Purdue upsets Ohio State 😬

— Deke (@DekeMathews) October 19, 2018

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @DekeMathews, as tweet out plays on there as well.  For example, Tuesday I liked Troy -12 and I tweeted out that I made the play.  We start the week 1-0 with a 1 unit win on Troy covering against South Alabama and hopefully the heater continues for the rest of Week 9!

Troy -12 tonight .. opened at -10.5 but missed it ... model has it Troy -15.8 and I see value at anything up to -13.5

— Deke (@DekeMathews) October 23, 2018

Trusty Treble Record: 13-5 (72.2%)

Honorable Mention:

• Central Michigan +4.5 @ Akron
• Penn State/Iowa Under 52
• Missouri -7 vs. Kentucky
• Tulane +2 @ Tulsa
• UTEP +16 vs. UAB
• Over 50
• Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Texas
• Nevada +3 vs. San Diego State
• SMU +9 vs. Cincinnati
• USF +7.5 @ Houston
• Mississippi State -1.5 vs. Texas A&M
• Northern Illinois/BYU Under 43

Western Kentucky +4 vs. FIU

Western Kentucky comes into this matchup winless at home and sitting at 1-6 on the season.  The Hilltoppers are no longer a powerhouse in the C-USA, as their 21-7 record at home over the last five years is getting worse as the losses start to pile up.  However, Western Kentucky has had close losses to Louisville, Marshall, and Old Dominion in games they could have won but squandered.  Last week, they had two chances at a game winning FG, but ODU returned a miss into WKU territory to kick a game winning FG of their own after three untimed downs to end the ballgame.

If you look at FIU's schedule and results you would think they have played very well this season.  However, if you dig into the box scores, FIU has had their fair share of luck.  FIU trailed Miami (FL) 31-3 yet only lost by 14.  They faced Middle Tennessee in a great spot (MTSU was on their 3rd straight road game) and MTSU starting QB Brent Stockstill was injured in the 2nd Quarter.  They also only lost at home against Indiana by 10, even though they were out-gained by 238 yards.  FIU's 5-2 record is misleading and they are not nearly the team that their record suggests.

Western Kentucky has covered their last six games as an underdog and this will be the first time FIU is an away favorite in the last two years.  Western Kentucky beat a solid Ball State team on the road earlier in the year and has played the much tougher schedule to date.  I have Western Kentucky not only covering the spread, but also getting a hard fought victory against overrated FIU.  

Old Dominion +4 vs. Middle Tennessee

Back-to-back Conference USA matchups to kick off the treble, yet neither involved my beloved UAB Dragons!  Old Dominion is obviously known for their unbelievable upset of Virginia Tech earlier in the season.  ODU has only one other victory (2-6 overall), which was a fluky victory last week at Western Kentucky.

Middle Tennessee is playing in their third road game in four weeks and QB Brent Stockstill still isn't 100% after going down two weeks ago against FIU (ankle injury).  The Blue Raiders are 3-1 in the CUSA, but are -65 in yards per game margin.

Old Dominion's defense does scare me a little against Stockstill, but like I said he isn't 100%.  This game is going to be a high scoring matchup and I have Middle Tennessee finally facing some regression after being out-gained regularly yet still winning in conference.  Like WKU, I have Old Dominion pulling the upset outright at home and shocking the Blue Raiders.

Northwestern +7 vs. Wisconsin 

This Northwestern football team has been a real "Jekyll and Hyde" type of team so far this season.  They come into this matchup 4-3, however they started 1-3 and have since reeled off three straight wins.  Northwestern lost against MAC bottom dweller Akron and followed that blunder by pushing Michigan to the absolute brink.  Then the Wildcats won at Michigan State by 10!  They followed those two great outings with three point wins against both Nebraska and at lowly Rutgers.

The matchup that will decide the game will be Wisconsin's rushing attack against Northwestern's rush defense.  Wisconsin is still battered with injuries, but still boasts one of the top rushing attacks in the nation.  I believe that Northwestern will find a way to stop RB Jonathan Taylor and force QB Alex Hornibrook to beat them through the air.  Northwestern has the #29 rushing defense and #18 defense on passing downs, which I believe Wisconsin will be in a lot.

This is only Wisconsin's third road game of the season.  They should have lost at Iowa and Michigan beat the Badgers handily.  I see this game playing out a lot like the Iowa game.  Hornibrook is going to have to make plays and I just can't see that happening.  Northwestern's offense will be able to move the ball through the air with QB Clayton Thorson.  The rushing game since starting RB Jeremy Larkin had to medically retire has been non-existent until last week.  True freshman Isaiah Bowser had 108 yards and looked like the spark the offense needed.  Coach Pat Fitzgerald said that the team was banged up and rested some players against Rutgers.  Fitzgerald said they will have the rested players back this week in a key Big Ten West matchup.

In Northwestern's games so far this season, the underdog is 7-0 against the spread.  Over the last three seasons, Northwestern has held Wisconsin to only 280 yards per game.  I have this being a low scoring matchup that comes down to the last possession.  Give me the seven points with the Wildcats at home and don't be surprised if Wisconsin gets pushed to the brink.


Note: Color Codes don't always mean I'm going to play the game but it makes the game one I look into more.  After doing some research, I may end up passing on the game.  The same goes for games not highlighted.

Green: Line moving towards my number with value still available
Blue: Don't agree with the line movement, waiting to get a better number as the week goes on

Tuesday, October 23

Troy 5-2 (3-0) @ South Alabama 2-5 (1-2)

Opened: Troy -10.5

Closed: Troy -11.5

Model: Troy -15.8

Thursday, October 25

Baylor 4-3 (2-2) @ #13 West Virginia 5-1 (3-1)

Opened: WVU -14

Current: WVU -14

Model: WVU -12.38

Ball State 3-5 (2-2) @ Ohio 4-3 (2-1)

Opened: Ohio -10.5

Current: Ohio -11

Model: Ohio -9.19

Toledo 3-4 (1-2) @ Western Michigan 6-2 (4-0)

Opened: WMU -5

Current: WMU -6.5

Model: WMU -3.28

#25 Appalachian State 5-1 (3-0) @ Georgia Southern 6-1 (3-0)

Opened: App State -8

Current: App State -10.5

Model: Appalachian State -14.41

Georgia Tech 3-4 (1-3) @ Virginia Tech 4-2 (3-0)

Opened: VT -3.5

Current: VT -3

Model: VT -4.85

Friday, October 26

Louisiana Tech 5-2 (3-1) @ Florida Atlantic 3-4 (1-2)

Opened: FAU -2

Current: FAU -3.5

Model: FAU -4.97

Miami (FL) 5-2 (2-1) @ Boston College 5-2 (2-1)

Note: BC RB AJ Dillon Questionable

Opened: Miami -2.5

Current: Miami -3.5

Model: Miami -0.23

Indiana 4-4 (1-4) @ Minnesota 3-4 (0-4)

Opened: Indiana -2.5

Current: Indiana -2.5

Model: Indiana -0.21

Wyoming 2-6 (0-4) @ Colorado State 3-5 (2-2)

Opened: CSU -2

Current: CSU -2

Model: Wyoming -1.68

#23 Utah 5-2 (3-2) @ UCLA 2-5 (2-2)

Opened: Utah -10

Current: Utah -10.5

Model: Utah -10.35

Saturday, October 27

#2 Clemson 7-0 (4-0) @ Florida State 4-3 (2-3)

Opened: Clemson -14

Current: Clemson -17

Model: Clemson -19.71

#20 Wisconsin 5-2 (3-1) @ Northwestern 4-3 (4-1)

Opened: Wisconsin -5.5

Current: Wisconsin -7

Model: Wisconsin -7.79

Vanderbilt 3-5 (0-4) @ Arkansas 2-6 (0-4)

Opened: Arkansas -1.5

Current: Vanderbilt -1.5

Model: Vanderbilt -2.26

Texas Tech 5-2 (3-1) @ Iowa State 3-3 (2-2)

Opened: Iowa State -5.5

Current: Iowa State -3.5

Model: Iowa State -4.87

Wake Forest 3-4 (0-3) @ Louisville 2-5 (0-4)

Opened: Louisville -1.5

Current: Louisville -2.5

Model: Wake Forest -4.06

UMass 2-6 @ Connecticut 1-6

Opened: UMass -4.5

Current: UMass -5

Model: UMass -5.16

Army 5-2 @ Eastern Michigan 4-4

Opened: EMU -2

Current: PK

Model: Army -2.96

Purdue 4-3 (3-1) @ Michigan State 4-3 (2-2)

Opened: MSU -1

Current: MSU -1.5

Model: MSU -2.87

Central Michigan 1-7 (0-4) @ Akron 3-3 (1-2)

Opened: Akron -6

Current: Akron -5

Model: Central Michigan -0.99

Bethune-Cookman 4-4 @ Nebraska 1-6

Opened: No Line Yet

Current: No Line Yet

Model: FBS vs. FCS

North Carolina 1-5 (1-3) @ Virginia 5-2 (3-1)

Opened: UVA -9.5

Current: UVA -9

Model: UVA -9.47

Southern Miss 3-3 (2-1) @ Charlotte 3-4 (2-2)

Opened: Southern Miss -7

Current: Southern Miss -7.5

Model: Southern Miss -12.75

Coastal Carolina 4-3 (1-2) @ Georgia State 2-5 (1-2)

Opened: CC -3

Current: CC -3.5

Model: CC -0.72

TCU 3-4 (1-3) @ Kansas 2-5 (0-4)

Note: TCU QB Robinson OFY

Opened: TCU -14

Current: TCU -13.5

Model: TCU -17.15

Oregon State 1-6 (0-4) @ Colorado 5-2 (2-2)

Opened: Colorado -24

Current: Colorado -24.5

Model: Colorado -18.32

#9 Florida 6-1 (4-1) vs. #7 Georgia 6-1 (4-1) at TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)

Opened: Georgia -7

Current: Georgia -7

Model: Georgia -10.5

Kansas State 3-4 (1-3) @ #8 Oklahoma 6-1 (3-1)

Opened: Oklahoma -23

Current: Oklahoma -24.5

Model: Oklahoma -24.32

#18 Iowa 6-1 (3-1) @ #17 Penn State 5-2 (2-2)

Opened: Penn State -5

Current: Penn State -6

Model: Penn State -8.38

#21 USF 7-0 (3-0) @ Houston 6-1 (3-0)

Opened: Houston -7.5

Current: Houston -7.5

Model: Houston -6.5

Arizona State 3-4 (1-3) @ USC 4-3 (3-2)

Opened: USC -4

Current: USC -6

Model: USC -5.23

Illinois 3-4 (1-3) @ Maryland 4-3 (2-2)

Opened: Maryland -17

Current: Maryland -18

Model: Maryland -12.24

Duke 5-2 (1-2) @ Pittsburgh 3-4 (2-1)

Opened: Duke -2.5

Current: Duke -3

Model: Duke -2.26

Middle Tennessee 4-3 (3-1) @ Old Dominion 2-6 (1-4)

Opened: MTSU -4.5

Current: MTSU -4

Model: MTSU -3.66

Northern Illinois 4-3 @ BYU 4-3

Opened: BYU -7.5

Current: BYU -7

Model: BYU -8.2

Cincinnati 6-1 (2-1) @ SMU 3-4 (2-1)

Opened: Cincinnati -8.5

Current: Cincinnati -9.5

Model: Cincinnati -9.03

#12 Kentucky 6-1 (4-1) @ Missouri 4-3 (0-3)

Opened: Missouri -7

Current: Missouri -7

Model: Missouri -3.64

New Mexico 3-4 (1-2) @ Utah State 6-1 (3-0)

Opened: Utah State -22.5

Current: Utah State -20.5

Model: Utah State -19.59

Rice 1-7 (0-4) @ North Texas 6-2 (2-2)

Opened: North Texas -28

Current: North Texas -30

Model: North Texas -24.77

#15 Washington 6-2 (4-1) @ California 4-3 (1-3)

Opened: Washington -10.5

Current: Washington -12

Model: Washington -12.67

UNLV 2-5 (0-3) @ San Jose State 0-7 (0-3)

Opened: UNLV -1.5

Current: San Jose State -2.5

Model: San Jose State -1.68

#14 Washington State 6-1 (3-1) @ #24 Stanford 5-2 (3-1)

Opened: Stanford -3

Current: Stanford -3

Model: Stanford -3.16

#16 Texas A&M 5-2 (3-1) @ Mississippi State 4-3 (1-3)

Opened: Mississippi State -3

Current: Mississippi State -1.5

Model: Mississippi State -3.15

#22 NC State 5-1 (2-1) @ Syracuse 5-2 (2-2)

Opened: Syracuse -1

Current: NC State -2

Model: NC State -3.28

Boise State 5-2 (3-1) @ Air Force 3-4 (1-3)

Opened: BSU -10

Current: BSU -9.5

Model: Boise State -11.79

Arkansas State 4-3 (1-2) @ Louisiana 3-4 (1-2)

Opened: Arkansas State -3

Current: Arkansas State -3

Model: Arkansas State -2.62

Tulane 2-5 (1-2) @ Tulsa 1-6 (0-3)

Opened: Tulsa -3

Current: Tulsa -1.5

Model: Tulsa -1.37

New Mexico State 2-6 @ Texas State 1-6

Opened: Texas State -2.5

Current: Texas State -3

Model: New Mexico State -1.45

UAB 6-1 (4-0) @ UTEP 0-7 (0-3)

Opened: UAB -17.5

Current: UAB -16

Model: UAB -18.59

Tennessee 3-4 (1-3) @ South Carolina 3-3 (2-3)

Opened: South Carolina -7.5

Current: South Carolina -7.5

Model: South Carolina -9.58

FIU 5-2 (3-0) @ Western Kentucky 1-6 (0-3)

Opened: FIU -4

Current: FIU -3.5

Model: FIU -2.92

#3 Notre Dame 7-0 @ Navy 2-5

Opened: ND -21.5

Current: ND -23.5

Model: ND -26.06

#6 Texas 6-1 (4-0) @ Oklahoma State 4-3 (1-3)

Opened: Texas -2.5

Current: Texas -3.5

Model: Texas -0.88

#19 Oregon 5-2 (2-2) @ Arizona 3-5 (2-3)

Opened: Oregon -9

Current: Oregon -9.5

Model: Oregon -12.55

Hawaii 6-3 (3-1) @ Fresno State 6-1 (3-0)

Opened: Fresno State -23.5

Current: Fresno State -24.5

Model: Fresno State -22.84

San Diego State 6-1 (3-0) @ Nevada 4-4 (2-2)

Note: SDSU Starting QB Chapman is Out

Opened: SDSU -3

Current: SDSU -2.5

Model: SDSU -5.14