Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 7 CFB

Welcome back to my weekly column, where I highlight my top three plays for the upcoming weekend in College Football.  Last week the Treble went 3-0 for a second straight week as the heater continues.  Like I said last week, tread lightly and don't vastly increase your wager size based on prior results.  As quickly as you can build up your bankroll, you can lose it right back once you increase your wager size.

Bankroll management is imperative when sports betting and I wanted to touch on my strategy to help anyone new to sports betting who might be reading.  I limit my wagers to be anywhere from 1% to 5% of my total bankroll across all of my accounts.  This strategy enables me to endure rough stretches without busting my bankroll.  Sports betting is very volatile and you will go through hot stretches (like we're on now) and the inevitable cold stretches where everything that can go wrong, will go wrong.  The three plays I have in my weekly Trusty Treble can range from 2% to 5%.  All my other bets are 1% or less.

I very rarely play any 5% plays and on the entire football season I have only made one such wager.  That was Wisconsin -3 @ Iowa and admittedly Wisconsin did not deserve to win or cover that game but I got lucky.

Volatility in College Football makes capping extremely tough, but extremely rewarding when you cap a game to perfection.  With 130 FBS teams and 60+ matchups each week, it is a grind, and I grind that I love.

Trusty Treble Record: 10-2 (83.3%)

Once again, 83.3% against the spread is completely unsustainable and this is a small sample size.  To break even with -110 odds (the standard juice) on a spread, bettors must hit 52.38% of wagers.  We will gladly take anything above that percent and hopefully the train keeps rolling for us this week.

Vanderbilt +7 vs. Florida

I was on Florida last week as they upset #5 LSU at The Swamp.  This week, Florida travels to Nashville in what will be the Gators' third road game out of their last four games.  They are also off a big SEC three game stretch that included away games against Tennessee and Mississippi State and last week's home game against LSU.  Back-to-back emotional wins for the Gators makes this matchup a huge hangover situation.  The Gators have a bye after this game, so Dan Mullen will want to get his guys out of Nashville healthy and with a W.  

Explosiveness is a statistic that cappers like to use, as you always look to target teams that make the big play happen often, and can also defend the big play.  Vanderbilt ranks 30th in offensive explosiveness and 28th in defending explosiveness.  Florida QB Feleipe Franks has improved this year, but I am not worried about his big play ability.  Vanderbilt's defense does have some holes in it as their top LB Charles Wright could be out again so that is a situation to watch.  For Vanderbilt, QB Kyle Shurmur has been terrific so far this season throwing for 1400 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.  Vanderbilt's offensive line is 14th in adjusted sack rate and should be able to give Shurmur the time to make plays.  Lastly, Florida has gotten a little luck with a +11 turnover margin, good enough for 2nd in the nation.  That turnover margin should regress at some point, whether or not it is in this game.  I still think Florida escapes with a win, but I have this game 27-24 in a tight contest.

Dual Threat QB Bryce Perkins has thrown for 1125 yards
and rushed for 419 already this season.

Virginia +7.5 vs. Miami (FL)

Miami Redshirt Freshman QB N'Kosi Perry replaced Senior Malik Rosier as the starter for the last two weeks and has shown some real potential.  His one glaring flaw so far has been his ability to protect the football.  In his starts against North Carolina and Florida State, Perry has fumbled the ball four times, yet none has been recovered by the opposing team.  Virginia's defense ranks higher than both opponents in defensive explosiveness and havoc at 10th in the nation.  Miami and the turnover chain has reproduced the same attitude this season as they come in at first in the nation in the same category.  This matchup should have constant action on defense as both quarterbacks will be under duress the entire game.  

The huge advantage in this matchup that swings Virginia's way is that Miami's Offensive Line ranks 103rd in the nation in adjusted sack rate.  Virginia will give N'Kosi Perry zero time to go through his progressions and will make him make quick decisions that could lead to turnovers.  On Virginia's offensive side of the ball, QB Bryce Perkins is an explosive player to watch if you haven't gotten the chance yet.  Here's a video of him hurdling Louisville defenders two different times in the same game.

Virginia will keep this game close and I have the Hurricanes on upset alert in Charlottesville.

Prediction: Virginia 24-20

San Jose State +15 vs. Army

Now we are getting to the late night matchup everyone was waiting for.  The winless San Jose State Spartans who rank 123rd in the nation in S&P+ facing off against the bruising triple option attack of Army.  

Here are the last three results for the Spartans.

• @Oregon L 22-35
• Hawaii L 41-44 (5 OT)
• Colorado State L 30-42 (Blew a 4th Quarter lead)

Those are pretty reputable results for a team that's getting 15 points against a team that runs the option that will keep the clock running the entire game.  San Jose State has stopped the run to the tune of allowing just 151 yards per game on the ground.  The problem they have is stopping the pass, which Army might only do five times all game.  If San Jose State continues to stop the run and can find a way to frustrate the option attack of Army, they will be in this game with the possibility of winning it in the fourth quarter.

When San Jose State has the ball, Army will have a tough time stopping its passing attack.  Army's secondary ranks 122nd in the nation in defending explosiveness, while San Jose State ranks 33rd in passing explosiveness.  This is a major mismatch that San Jose State can take advantage of and keep the chains moving.  There are too many positives that point the Spartans way to ignore them at +15 in this matchup.  

Prediction: Army 28-24

Other Action (0.5-1 unit plays):

• Tulsa +7 vs. USF
• Air Force @ San Diego State Under 44
• Buffalo -10.5 vs. Akron
• Oregon +4 vs. Washington
• Arkansas +6 vs. Mississippi
• Middle Tennessee ML +110 @ FIU
• Baylor +14.5 @ Texas
• USC -7 vs. Colorado
• Kansas State +7 vs. Oklahoma State
• South Carolina +2.5 vs. Texas A&M

Follow me on Twitter @DekeMathews for last minute wagers and commentary. I am always open to constructive criticism so feel free to let me know how you feel about my articles!  I appreciate the read as always and best of luck this weekend if you tail any of the plays!