Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 8 CFB

Michigan DB's Lavert Hill (#24) and Josh Metellus (#14) should be ready to feast on MSU's banged up receiving corps

The streak of consecutive undefeated Trusty Treble's ended at two as we had our first losing week on the treble.  Regression was bound to set in; however, despite going 1-2 on my big plays I still came out ahead a couple units on Saturday.  Keep up to date with all of my plays as I usually have several 0.5-1 unit plays posted on the Action Network App.

Reflecting on what went right and what went wrong is really important in crafting your skill so that you don't continuously make the same errors.  They say that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity and it applies in this situation.  So for the intro to this week's Trusty Treble, I am going to take a look at what went right and what ultimately went wrong for my picks last week.

What Went Right

• Virginia/Miami Cap
• Havoc was the name of the game for both defenses and that's exactly what you saw in Virginia's upset of Miami.  Each team threw three interceptions and Virginia's cornerbacks looked amazing.  However, Virginia definitely had a bit of luck on its side as QB Bryce Perkins only threw for 92 yards in the game.  The passing game will have to improve quickly as the Cavaliers face Duke this week.  A note for Miami (FL) going forward, the QB situation has shifted back to Senior Malik Rosier as he unseated Redshirt Freshman N'Kosi Perry late in the game.  Head Coach Mark Richt made an announcement that he will go back to Rosier going forward.
• Vanderbilt/Florida Cap
• As my article predicted, Florida came out slow and it looked like they just wanted to get out of Nashville with a win and a healthy squad going into the bye before a huge game with Georgia.  Florida was down 18 points (25 points adding in the spread), before Florida started to battle back.  

What Went Wrong

• Vanderbilt/Florida Result
• Florida scored 24 straight points and led by 7 with the ball, running out the clock late in the 4th.  Florida was faced with a 3rd and 1 that, if converted, would have ended the game.  The Commodore defense got the stop, and Florida kicked a 43 yard field goal instead of going for it on 4th down to seal the game.  In fairness, Florida did out-gain Vanderbilt 576-336 in total yards as Vanderbilt couldn't establish the run without starting RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who left early in the 2nd Quarter with an undisclosed injury.
• Taking a Chance on San Jose State
• At the end of the 1st Quarter, San Jose State actually led this game 3-0.  That is the end of any good news whatsoever.  Army went on to score 52 straight points and the SJSU +15 wager was dead early in the 3rd Quarter.  San Jose State racked up four turnovers and gave up 341 yards rushing.  The big takeaway to learn from this is no matter how good the situation seems, sometimes you just have to stay away from really bad teams.

Trusty Treble Record: 11-4 (73.3%)

We pick up the Trusty Treble in Week 8 and our record still is over 70%, which is outstanding even if it is still a small sample size.  Keep in mind these are my three favorite bets of the week and I also play 15-20 other smaller plays (usually 0.5-1 unit).  

Plays that Didn't Quite Make the Trusty Treble

These wagers I have made but are 0.5-1 unit plays

• Temple -3.5 vs. Cincinnati
• North Carolina +11 @ Syracuse
• Mississippi State +7 @ LSU
• Kent State +4 vs. Akron
• Missouri -9.5 vs. Memphis
• Under 74
• Texas State +12 @ ULM
• Purdue +14 vs. Ohio State
• Rice +24 @ FIU
• Arkansas -6 vs. Tulsa
• Mississippi State +7 @ LSU

As always, I usually make some last minute plays if I see any line movement providing value so I highly recommend following me on the Action Network @DekeMathews to get updates as soon as I make a play regardless of sport.  Also, some of my spreads may be better than the lines currently available.  I make some of my plays as soon as the lines open Sunday at 3:00 on BetOnline comparing my power ratings to the openers.  If I see a line that I feel will definitely move one way or another I will hit that line.    For example, the Michigan/Michigan State opener I was looking for Michigan at -6.5 or better as I figured it would at least get to -7 as my power ratings suggested.  When it opened at -5, the value was too good to pass up.  Right now, that line sits at Michigan -7 right on the key number of 7 and I do think there is value, but I feel a lot more comfortable with the extra two points.

Michigan -5 @ Michigan State

Note: This line has moved to Michigan -7 

For those of you who don't know me, I am a huge Michigan fan.  A huge problem with bettors is wagering on your favorite team with false confidence.  I am able to set aside my Michigan love when considering teams to bet on.  Thus far on the season, I have been pretty spot on with Michigan's games other than the Notre Dame game.  I was blinded by the fact that Shea Patterson wasn't going to be fully comfortable in his first game at Michigan especially on the road at Notre Dame.  One note from the game, if you look at advanced metrics the Wolverines actually had a 59% postgame win expectancy which makes sense as they were unable to score multiple times when getting into the red zone.  This is the first week my Wolverines make the treble and if you think this is just a homer pick, please keep reading and you can make an informed decision on which side you like. 

Everyone knows about Jim Harbaugh's short comings in big games, especially against Michigan State.  Harbaugh is 1-2 against Michigan State and 0-3 covering the spread.  Let's take a look at the last ten years in the Michigan vs. Michigan State rivalry.

Year	Home	Away	Spread	Final
2008	MICH	MSU	MSU -4	MSU 35-21
2009	MSU	#22 MICH	MSU -4	MSU 26-20(OT)
2010	#18 MICH	#17 MSU	MICH -4.5	MSU 34-17
2011	#23 MSU	#11 MICH	MSU -3	MSU 28-14
2012	#23 MICH	MSU	MICH -9.5	MSU 12-10
2013	#24 MSU	#23 MICH	MSU -4.5	MSU 29-6
2014	#8 MSU	MICH	MSU -17	MSU 35-11
2015	#12 MICH	#7 MSU	MICH -7.5	MSU 27-23
2016	MSU	#2 MICH	MICH -25	MICH 32-23
2017	#7 MICH	MSU	MICH -10.5	MSU 14-10

Yes, you are reading that correctly.  Michigan State is 9-1 straight up and a perfect 10-0 against the spread in the last ten years.  That is unbelievable considering the stature of these two programs.  This is the year of the streak ending, as Kentucky finally defeated Florida to end the Gators' 31 game win streak against the Wildcats.  You will see the same here in terms of Michigan against the spread with rival Michigan State.  

Michigan comes into this game ranked 4th overall in S&P+.  That is backed up by the #1 Defensive S&P+ Rank in the nation.  Michigan's defense forces havoc and excels by forcing passing downs.  When you look at Michigan State's offense, they are a mirror opposite of Michigan's opponent last week (Wisconsin).  The rushing attack has been non-existent thus far this year rushing for 123 yards per game.  Starting RB LJ Scott has missed the last three games due to injury and the committee of RB's have not been able to produce.  QB Brian Lewerke has a great arm, but has flashed moments of inconsistency on the year.  He has hit 135/225 for 1587 yards with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7.  Michigan State is going to air the ball out, but Lewerke could possibly be without his top three options for Saturday's game.  Top WR Felton Davis III is a matchup nightmare as he showed against Penn State catching eight passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns.  He left the game early last week and is questionable with an undisclosed injury although I believe he will play, albeit at less than 100%.  Number two receiver Cody White has been ruled out indefinitely with a broken hand and third option Darrell Stewart Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury.  I just can't see backups Cam Chambers and Laress Nelson getting the separation needed against this secondary, before the Michigan's D-Line gets into the backfield.  On the Offensive Line, Starters David Beedle (ruled out) and Kevin Jarvis (questionable) could both be missing on a stellar O-Line.  With those two holes, I see the pocket collapsing quicker than usual for Lewerke.

This game will be decided by the Michigan State defense and if they can continue to be the #1 rush defense in the nation.  Michigan State excels at stuffing the run and forcing teams into third and long opportunities.  Michigan likes to establish the run early and often, which allows for manageable third downs.  If Michigan State can stuff the run, they will force Shea Patterson into some uncomfortably long third downs that could flip field position.  In prior years, when Michigan had an incompetent quarterback (e.g. John O'Korn), this would really spell trouble for the Wolverines moving the football.  However, the upgrade at quarterback with Shea Patterson is looking like a match made in heaven for Harbaugh.

The statistic that put me over the edge on Michigan and what makes me believe this will be a two or more score game, is third down conversions.  Michigan ranks #13 in the nation in third down conversion rate at 49%.  Michigan State ranks #104 in the same category with a 35.2% conversion rate.  These numbers make all the sense in the world, because Michigan establishes a run game which makes third down's more manageable.  When you look at each team's average third down distance, Michigan's is 5.6 yards, while Michigan State's is 8 yards.  This game will come down to third downs and Michigan will be in better position to convert all game, which will extend drives that could lead to points.  Michigan excels in obvious passing downs and will frustrate the Spartan offense all game.  Add in that Michigan has committed only five turnovers compared to Michigan State's ten turnovers (Michigan has played one more game as well) and this could be a recipe for disaster for the Spartans.

One caveat for Michigan is their inability to score touchdowns outside the ten yard line.  From the 11-20 yard line, they only score touchdowns on 26.3% of possessions (117th in the nation).  Add in the 21-30 yard line, they still rank 113th in touchdown percentage.  Both of these areas need to improve or down the road they will lose a close game, just like the Notre Dame loss.

UAB -1.5 vs. North Texas

Welcome back to the Trusty Treble UAB!  UAB has been a go-to of mine thus far this season in these types of situations.  I had them in my column two weeks ago in a big C-USA game against Louisiana Tech, which they won convincingly as an underdog.  The defense is clicking on all cylinders as they have only allowed a total of 14 points in the last three games!  I am backing them here again coming off an easy 42-0 victory at lowly Rice.    

North Texas comes in with a great quarterback in Mason Fine who has absolutely torched opposing defenses so far this season.  Fine has thrown for 2210 yards and 16 touchdowns to just one interception.  North Texas is 6-1 and comes off a game against Southern Miss where they won 30-7, but only led 10-7 at half.  UNT also scored a garbage touchdown with 0:33 left in the game which skews the final score a little.  Teams that haven't had a bye yet can start feeling some fatigue, especially when they've played a lot of road games.  North Texas is in that situation as they haven't had a bye and this game will be the fourth road game out of their last six.  

UAB has a distinct advantage on the defensive side of the football.  They have allowed opposing quarterbacks a 42% completion rate (#1 in the nation) and just 284 yards per game in total offense.  UAB also ranks first in sack rate (15.1%) and passing downs sack rate (16.9%), which North Texas will be in all game.

UAB is the better team here, at home in a game that they can basically clinch a spot in the C-USA Championship Game (I hold a future on UAB to win the conference from before the season).  Expect a low scoring game for North Texas and my prediction is for UAB to get the victory 24-17.

USC +7 @ Utah

USC is 4-2 this season behind Freshman QB JT Daniels, who has struggled at times but has improved in each game.  He has already played in key away games (Stanford and Texas) and although his team lost both matchups, he can take valuable experience in playing in big road games.  After a 1-2 start, the Trojans have seemed to right the ship with wins against Washington State and Colorado (both only have one loss) and you can definitely see the talent Clay Helton has on his hands.  

Utah comes into this matchup with a 4-2 record and are coming off wins at Stanford and at home against Arizona.  In both matchups, they won easily while the best players for each team RB Bryce Love (Stanford) did not play and QB Khalil Tate (Arizona) was injured early in the first quarter.  The best part of this Utah team is its special teams as I have them having the best kicker and punter in all of college football.  Utah relies on dominating the field position game and pinning their opponent back.  

USC has some playmakers who have the ability to make big plays.  Matching up with QB JT Daniels, Freshman WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is someone you have to watch going forward.  The #2 WR recruit has shown flashes of brilliance and gives USC a great freshman tandem at QB & WR going forward.

I have these two teams being almost identical talent wise and in their last eight meetings USC is 5-3 straight up.  The three outright wins that Utah has had have been by 4, 3, and 4 points.  I call for USC to cover in a tight game that ends with a Utah FG late to win 23-20 giving USC +7 the win.