Wimbledon First Round Values

Some great First Round matchups in the Round of 128 coming up at Wimbledon.  I'm going to breakdown a few of the values I like and the bets I will be making.

Section 1

Harrison/Carballes Baena Over 3.5 (+100)

Carballes Baena has rarely played on anything but Clay and his results on other surfaces show.  He has also had a rough going as of late and is 18-18 on the year.  This is his first Wimbledon and has only three matches on Grass to his name (0-3).  Ryan Harrison has been bounced out of his last three first rounds and isn't having the best season either (12-13).  Harrison is 28-35 on Grass lifetime and is just 1-5 in the last two years.  Although I have Harrison winning this match, I don't see a straight set finish and at even money, I'll take my chances with the over.

Elias +2.5 (+100) vs. Garcia-Lopez

Gustao Elias actually leads this H2H 2-1 and all two of the three meetings ended in three sets. (Elias won 2-0 the other meeting.  These matchups were all of Clay and Elias' best surface is Clay. Elias is only 2-7 on Grass lifetime, which all point down.  However, Garcia-Lopez hasn't been a world beater on Grass either at 29-31 lifetime.  He will have the advantage of experience and also built some form at Antalya bowing out in the Quarters.  With that being said, I don't see this match as a 3-0 Garcia-Lopez victory.  Elias will take at least a set and at even money I love this bet.

Predictions:

Federer (-5000) over Lajovic 3-0

Lacko (-500) over Bonzi 3-1

Youzhny (-125) over Karlovic 3-2

L. Mayer (-200) over Struff 3-1

Mannarino (-500) over Garin 3-0

Harrison (-750) over Carballes Baena 3-1

Garcia-Lopez (-950) over Elias 3-2

Coric (-275) over Medvedev 3-2

Section 2

Djere (+125) vs. Lorenzi

This is more of a Lorenzi fade at Wimbledon and on Grass.  I do like the current form Djere is in on the Challenger Tour and I am worried about his Grass experience (0-1 lifetime).  Lorenzi has played in 7 Wimbledons and has gotten past the Round of 128 once (last year).  To back that up he has a 6-26 (18.8 win %) on Grass.  I think Djere is a live dog and has a great shot to move to the Round of 64 in his first appearance at Wimbledon.

Predictions:

Querrey (-650) over Thompson 3-1

Stakhovsky (-125) over Sousa 3-2

Djere (+125) over Lorenzi 3-2

Gasquet (-180) over Monfils 3-2

Kohlschreiber (-600) over Donskoy 3-0

Muller (-310) over Mmoh 3-1

Seppi (-260) over Smith 3-1

Anderson (-1400) over Gombos 3-0

Section 3

Albot (+200) vs. Carreno Busta

Carreno Busta is 0-5 lifetime on Grass and 0-3 here at Wimbledon.  He's primarily a Clay player, but comes into this tournament in some decent form.  Albot however has struggled lately and that's the only thing that takes away some confidence from this pick.  He's only 8-19 on the season and hasn't played even close to the amount of matches he's played in prior years.  He however is 2-2 with two Round of 64 appearances here at Wimbledon in as many years.  He has been able to win here before and I don't think Carreno Busta gets the monkey off his back on Grass here and I'll take the plus odds.

Predictions:

Dimitrov (-425) over Wawrinka 3-2

Fabbiano (-165) over Bhambri 3-1

Donaldson (-200) over Jaziri 3-2

Tsitsipas (-375) over Barrere 3-0

Albot (+200) over Carreno Busta 3-2

Bedene (-200) over Norrie 3-2

Johnson (-275) over Bemelmans 3-1

Isner (-1000) over Maden 3-0

Section 4

Polansky (+115) vs. Novak

I'm rolling with Polansky here at close odds.  I think these players match up well and I have this match slightly favoring Polansky.  Polansky is 4-3 on Grass this year and while his record could be better on the year (19-20), he has picked up wins on the Challenger Tour against solid competition.  Novak had an amazing year last year with a record of 61-16 (1-1 Main Draw), but hasn't had that same spark in his game this year.  I could see this coming down to a fifth set and Polansky sealing the deal.

Kudla (+115) vs. Pouille

Kudla is a Grass specialist compiling 82 matches played on Grass in his career with a record of 51-31.  Pouille is no slouch on Grass, but I think Kudla has the ability to out perform here.  In '15 Kudla made it all the way to the Round of 16 here as well, so full speed ahead on the Kudla train.  I was hoping the odds would be better, but I will take +115.

Predictions:

Raonic (-2000) over Broady 3-0

Millman (-225) over Travaglia 3-1

Polansky (+115) over Novak 3-2

Kudla (+115) over Pouille 3-2

Jarry (-205) over Krajinovic 3-2

McDonald (-130) over Berankis 3-2

Pella (-160) over Kubler 3-1

Cilic (-2500) over Nishioka 3-0

Section 5

Fucsovics (+105) vs. Benneteau

Benneteau is coming in finding some form at Queens making it to the Round of 16.  He has the experience as well at the age of 36.  Fucsovics is only 1-5 in Main Draw matches on Grass in his career so far, yet owns a 16-12 record on Grass lifetime.  In terms of the entire year, Fucsovics has had a much better campaign and Benneteau has struggled with several one-and-dones.  I think Fucsovics gets the win in a closely contested match.

Tiafoe (+110) vs. Verdasco

Tiafoe is only 20 years old and looks to be a major United States prospect.  He has shown potential on Grass as he is 3-3 in Main Draw Grass events.  He played well at Queens getting to the Quarterfinal after dispatching Jared Donaldson and Leonardo Mayer before falling to in-form Jeremy Chardy.  Tiafoe is 20-12 on the year and I think he can make an impact here in the Round of 128.  Verdasco comes in out of form at 14-15 on the season and has just one win in three Grass tournaments this year.  

Predictions:

Thiem (-750) over Baghdatis 3-1

Khachanov (-425) over Ferrer 3-1

Fucsovics (+105) over Benneteau 3-2

Tiafoe (+110) over Verdasco 3-1

Edmund (-500) over Bolt 3-2

Sugita (-345) over Klahn 3-0

Andreozzi (+125) over Zeballos 3-2

Djokovic (-2500) over Sandgren 3-0

Section 6

Copil (+155) vs. Haase

I have this matchup closer to a pick 'em and I like the value on Copil.  He has a 27-17 record on Grass for his career in comparison to Haase's 22-35.  Copil hasn't had any luck here, falling out of Wimbledon in the First Round in his first two attempts.  Copil holds the H2H 1-0 over Haase as well.

Marterer (+105) vs. Dzumhur

What can I say I love this kid.  Maximilian Marterer has been a go to for me as of late.  He doesn't have a great record on Grass but his overall level has been tremendous.  This will be his first Wimbledon and I think he has the chance to make some noise early.  Dzumhur is coming off a great run to a win at Antalya, which I think will actually hurt him in the long run here.  He hasn't had as much time to prepare here at Wimbledon, plus traveling after Antalya.  Marterer has been here and ready and I will take the fresh Marterer over the in-form Dzumhur.

Predictions:

Kyrgios (-750) over Istomin 3-1

Copil (+155) over Haase 3-2

Tomic (-275) over Hurkacz 3-0

Nishikori (-1000) over C. Harrison 3-0

Marterer (+105) over Dzumhur 3-2

Gulbis (-650) over Clarke 3-1

Fritz (-385) over Sonego 3-1

A. Zverev (-2500) over Duckworth 3-1

Section 7

Ebden (+175) vs. Goffin

Ebden has excelled on Grass over his career to the tune of an 88-44 record.  It has been his best surface and he has compiled a 10-3 record on Grass this season.  His current form is through the roof beating some reputable competition.  Goffin hasn't played as much this year as he has in past years and is coming off a loss at Queen's to Feliciano Lopez.  Goffin has reached the Round of 16 twice at Wimbledon, but is only 18-17 lifetime on Grass.  I think Ebden surprises the masses here and defeats the ranked Goffin.

Predictions:

Del Potro (-900) over Gojowczyk 3-1

Lopez (-800) over Delbonis 3-0

Murray (-220) over Paire 3-1

Chardy (-145) over Shapovalov 3-2

Sock (-140) over Berrettini 3-1

Simon (-310) over Basilashvili 3-1

Ramos-Vinolas (-170) over Robert 3-2

Ebden (+175) over Goffin 3-1

Section 8

No Bets

Predictions:

Schwartzman (-185) over Basic 3-2

Vesely (-190) over F. Mayer 3-2

Cuevas (-165) over Dolgopolov 3-1

Fognini (-325) over Daniel 3-1

De Minaur (-225) over Cecchinato 3-1

M. Zverev (-200) over Herbert 3-2

Kukushkin (-165) over Pospisil 3-2

Nadal (-4000) over Sela 3-0

Thanks for the read and if you have any feedback feel free to tweet me @DekeMathews and stay tuned on my twitter for any adds I may have during the first round and throughout Wimbledon.