Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 3 CFB
I am not going to include my Baylor PK against Duke play in the treble as the spread has moved to Baylor -6.5, thus the value is pretty much gone. That is definitely my favorite play of the weekend, but I'll provide you with three others that I like.
1. ULM +27 (at Texas A&M)
This is purely about the situational spot for Texas A&M. Last week they lost a hard fought matchup with #2 Clemson. Next week, they travel to Tuscaloosa to face #1 Alabama. This is the top sandwich spot of the year for any team. Texas A&M will be looking ahead to the Crimson Tide and will be rundown from the war against Clemson. ULM will keep this game closer than the casual fan would think, especially after seeing the Aggies take Clemson to the wire.
ULM actually was in a very similar spot last season when they faced Auburn. Auburn was coming off a similar spot in which they played ULM in between Georgia and Alabama. ULM was +37.5 in that matchup and lost by 28 points (late touchdown by Auburn to make it 28). I expect something similar this year and ULM covers the spread.
2. Indiana -14 (vs. Ball State)
I was on Ball State last week as they gave Notre Dame everything they could handle in a letdown spot for the Irish. Ball State benefitted from Irish mistakes as they had three interceptions that gave the Cardinals good field position. Indiana is a very efficient team as QB Peyton Ramsey has a 73.5% completion rate through two games and Indiana ranks 31st in the nation in offensive efficiency. I don't see Indiana turning the ball over as easily as Notre Dame did, even with the Hoosiers facing reeling Michigan State next week.
Ball State doesn't have the playmaking ability to put up points in this matchup without turnovers. I call for Indiana to take care of the ball and take care of business against Ball State in a rout.
3. Texas -3 (vs. USC)
It usually feels a little dirty backing the Longhorns as you never know what you're going to get from this team. Both of these teams have struggled early and the losing team's coach will undoubtedly be on the hot seat. USC Freshman Starting QB JT Daniels got banged up last week at Stanford, injuring his throwing hand. He started throwing again two days ago, but that's a tough injury to hide when it's a quarterback's throwing hand.
Texas has a significant advantage on the ground and Coach Tom Herman is going to have his boys ready to play for this revenge game (USC won 27-24 in double OT last season). Throw in the home field advantage for the Longhorns and I really like Texas in a must-win situation.
Thanks for the read and if you tail good luck this weekend!
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