Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 11 CFB

Welcome back to another Trusty Treble for Week 11 in College Football.  What a time to be alive.  College Football is already in Week 11 and the College Basketball season tipped off on Tuesday.  As some of you know, I love college sports.  As a handicapper, my two main sports are College Football and College Basketball.  I would say College Football is my 1a and College Basketball is my 1b, as I put tons of time into these sports.  I dabble in other sports, but right now my entire focus is on College Football and College Basketball.  I will still be providing the Weekly Treble and Early Look pieces, but keep a look out for some College Basketball articles as College Football starts to wind down.

What a week it was for the Trusty Treble as Service Academy vs. Service Academy matchups continued to go under, Boston College got us a cover, and Iowa had a goal line stand to hold Purdue to a field goal and cover the spread.  If you're counting at home that is a clean sweep for the Treble as we boost our record to 17-7.  We needed some luck from the Hawkeyes, but hopefully we can build off that luck for another successful week.

Trusty Treble Season Record: 17-7 (70.8%)

Honorable Mention

• Boise State +3 vs. Fresno State
• Louisville/Syracuse Under 73.5
• SMU -17.5 @ Connecticut
• UTEP +14 @ Middle Tennessee
• Florida Atlantic -17.5 vs. Western Kentucky
• Arkansas +13.5 vs. LSU
• Massachusetts +14 vs. BYU
• Marshall -14 vs. Charlotte
• Mississippi +13.5 @ Texas A&M
• Temple +5 @ Houston

Miami (FL) +3 @ Georgia Tech

Miami comes into this game reeling as they have dropped three in a row after starting the season 5-1.  The key to stopping the Georgia Tech option offense is havoc and the turnover chain and Miami's defense is going to rebound here.  Miami needs to control the line of scrimmage in this matchup to cause the havoc needed to disrupt the backfield.  If Miami can get Georgia Tech into third and long situations, they will win this game.  New QB Tobias Oliver has taken over for TaQuon Marshall and has only thrown 12 passes all year.  Georgia Tech's third-and-long success rate is 18.4% is good for 116th in the nation.

Miami's offense has struggled to say the least over the last three games.  The Hurricanes have scored 12, 14, and 13 points.  This Yellow Jacket defense is just the remedy that this offense needs.  Georgia Tech's defense ranks 90th in the nation in Rushing S&P+ and will struggle to contain the RB combo of Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas.  The combo averages 5.7 and 6.1 yards per carry and Malik Rosier will add another threat to the Yellow Jacket defense.

I have Miami getting back on track and the defense getting out the turnover chain multiple times.  Miami's rushing attack will be too much for Georgia Tech's defense and yet more chaos will ensue in the ACC Coastal.

Virginia Tech +3 @ Pitt

This matchup features a team that has won its last two (Pitt) and a team that has lost its last two (Virginia Tech).  Pitt is coming off victories over Duke and Virginia taking first place in the ACC Coastal.  Pitt was able to win both of those games as they weren't forced into third and long situations very often where they really struggle.  The Panthers rank 112th in the nation on Passing Downs according to S&P+.  The strategy from the Hokies is to stop the run on early downs and force Pitt into passing situations.  Virginia Tech held BC RB AJ Dillon in check last week, but the defense was beaten by the passing game.

Virginia Tech has really struggled in games that they have had to worry about both passing and rushing attacks.  The one outlier would be the Georgia Tech game, but that is an option attack and tough to prepare for.  Virginia Tech in this matchup will sell out to stop the run and have eight men in the box. Pittsburgh is 119th in the nation in Passing S&P+ and I see QB Kenny Pickett having to have a huge game for the Panthers to win this game.  I just cannot see that happening in a spot that Pitt has not been in for years.  Pitt excels at getting a big upset when a team overlooks them.  I feel that the Virginia win last week was just that.  I think Pitt has a let down here in an unfamiliar situation as the favorite and the jumbled mess that is the ACC Coastal will get even murkier.  

Colorado +6 vs. Washington State

The pressure is on for the Cougars as it looks like they are the PAC-12's last chance at a playoff spot, although they need a lot to happen in front of them.  Washington State has only had a 100% postgame win expectancy in one game this season (31-0 win vs. San Jose State).  It is safe to say they have had a little luck en route to a surprising 8-1 record on the season.  They struggled against Cal but eked out a 19-13 victory, but I believe this is where the luck stops.

Colorado has lost four straight in PAC-12 play and star WR Laviska Shenault Jr. is questionable for Saturday's matchup.  They should have won against Oregon State, but self-inflicted wounds ended up being their undoing.  This is a good matchup for the Buffaloes to get back on track and pull off a huge home upset.  Pressure is the name of the game for this cap, as the pressure is on Washington State and Colorado's defense is going to pressure QB Gardner Minshew II and the Wazzou offense.  The linebacking core for the Buffaloes ranks #11 in havoc rating and will be all over the field trying to contain Washington State's passing attack.

The mismatch I see in this matchup that I want to target is actually Colorado's offense and QB Steven Montez.  Colorado ranks #15 in passing completion rate and should be able to move the ball down the field and keep up with the scoring of Washington State.  The X-Factor in this game is actually Steven Montez's QB legs as the Cougar defense has struggled containing a mobile QB.  Washington State ranks 105th in rushing marginal explosiveness, which really comes into play with a mobile QB. I still expect a shootout, but I actually like Colorado as an extremely live dog to derail the entire PAC-12's chances at the playoff.