Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 10 CFB
Welcome back to my Trusty Treble of picks for the upcoming week in College Football. I talked a bit in my Early Look piece about how the week went in terms of my Treble and what I can take away from the previous weekend. As always make sure you follow me on Twitter @DekeMathews and on the Action Network app @DekeMathews for all of my picks regardless of sport.
Trusty Treble Season Record: 14-7 (66.7%)
Even as regression reared its ugly head last week, we are still averaging a 2-1 record on the weekly treble. We focus our sights on Week 10 and look for a bounce back to our winning ways. If you like any of my honorable mention picks more than my three top picks, just swap them out as I have a tough time limiting down to my favorite three a lot of the times.
Honorable Mention:
- Maryland +3 vs. Michigan State
- Air Force +7 @ Army
- Nebraska +17.5 @ Ohio State
- Eastern Michigan -13.5 vs. Central Michigan
- Baylor +7.5 vs. Oklahoma State
- LSU +14.5 vs. Alabama
- San Jose State @ Wyoming Under 44.5
- Southern Miss +3 vs. Marshall
- UTEP @ Rice Under 47.5
- Louisiana +10.5 @ Troy
- Charlotte +21 @ Tennessee
- California +10 @ Washington State
Air Force @ Army Under 48.5
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The under in the last 15 meetings is 10-5 between Army and Air Force. If you extend the parameters to service academy vs. service academy in the last 15 years, the under is 34-10-1 (11-4 Air Force/Navy, 13-1-1 Army/Navy).
The reasons for this are quite simple if you think about it. Whenever you have an option offense on the field at all times, the clock is going to continue to roll the entire game. Also, both teams are comfortable with preparing for the option as they run it in practice over and over again week in and week out.
The reasons I have given so far make for a great bet already, but I have some concrete data on the current teams to back all of this up. Let's take a look at how these defenses stack at defending the run.
| Air Force | Army | |
| Rushing S&P | 18th | 93rd |
| Rushing Marg. Eff | 10th | 113th |
| Standard Downs YPC | 4th | 91st |
Keep in mind that the favorite in this game is Army by seven points. The underdog's biggest strength in this matchup is stopping the run. Army is not going to be able to put up a crooked number in this matchup as Air Force's defense has only really struggled with defending the pass on the season. Air Force has allowed 30+ points in four games this season; however, all four of those teams relied on the pass to exploit the Falcons.
In the last four meetings, Air Force and Army have combined for an average of 29 total points per game. I just cannot see this game getting anywhere near the 48.5 over/under. I will gladly take the under as I projected this over/under at 41.
UPDATE: The O/U has plummeted to 42 on Bovada (It was 48.5 on Monday, when I hit it)
Iowa +3 @ Purdue
I just want to start this out saying, thank you again Purdue for defeating Ohio State two weeks ago. You made my "Hot Take" a reality and I will be forever in debt to your program. However, I regret to say that I will be fading the Boilermakers this week at home.
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| Jake Gervase leads Iowa in tackles this season |
Iowa is coming off an ugly loss at Penn State in which they out-gained the Nittany Lions 350-312 in total yards and 23-16 in first downs. An interception at the two yard line was their undoing and marked the 2nd loss on the season for the Hawkeyes (also should have won vs. Wisconsin).
The defense is what really has me on Iowa as an away dog this Saturday. The Hawkeyes have held their opponents to 138 yards below their season average, which is good enough for fifth in the nation. QB Nathan Stanley struggled mightily last week in tough conditions against a solid passing defense. He will bounce back against a middle of the road passing defense in Purdue (68th in S&P+ Passing Defense).
Purdue struggled against Michigan State last week and Iowa will not be taking this game lightly. If Iowa can win this game, they would need just one loss from Wisconsin to take the lead in the Big Ten West. I expect a motivated Hawkeye team and the defense to really make a statement here. Iowa has played some good teams and haven't been able to finish down the stretch. That will change this week as Iowa gets a much needed victory to keep its race for the Big Ten West alive.
Boston College -2 @ Virginia Tech
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| RB AJ Dillon looked healthy in last week's game against Miami |
Virginia Tech seems to be at a crossroads in its season after getting smoked at home against Georgia Tech last week. Injuries and dismissals have diminished this defense and has forced young players into starting jobs. The youth has shown and the usual tough Hokie defense is a shell of itself. This defense is in the bottom 10 of the country in rushing marginal explosiveness (121st) and ranks 80th in Rushing S&P+ Defense.
Boston College is going to run the ball all over this defense. I call from AJ Dillon to run for 150 yards and multiple scores. QB Anthony Brown should be able to get things going as well through the air. The Hokies passing marginal explosiveness ranks 112th in the nation and Anthony Brown will exploit them with some big plays off play action. Even though Boston College is known for their rushing attack, the passing attack has provided a ton of explosiveness. BC is #11 in the nation in passing marginal explosiveness and it will prove to be a key mismatch in the game.
Virginia Tech is going to have to pick their poison whether they want to stop the run or the pass of Boston College. If they try to load the box, Anthony Brown will go deep on them. If they don't load the box, AJ Dillon is going to have a field day carving up the Hokies. Boston College will go into Blacksburg and get another key victory before hosting Clemson next week.
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