Deke's Trusty Treble: Week 12 CFB

Tyrrell Pigrome will start for the injured Kasim Hill at QB as Hill tore his ACL last week

Week 11 was not good to the Treble.  The first goose-egg of the season as the dogs were just not barking.  It is back to the drawing board for Week 12 and I feel good as I am refreshed from only a two day week at work due to snow.  It is crazy to think that this is the penultimate week of the season already and we only have one more full slate after this week.  Even with two 0-3's, the Treble will still have a winning record for the regular season.  Let's hope that doesn't happen and we get back to our winning ways!

Trusty Treble Season Record: 17-10 (63.0%)

Honorable Mention

• Mississippi State -20 vs. Arkansas
• Louisiana Tech @ Southern Miss Over 47
• Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
• Florida State +1.5 vs. Boston College
• Tulsa +6 @ Navy
• UAB +16 @ Texas A&M
• San Diego State +15 @ Fresno State
• Arizona +10.5 @ Washington State
• UNLV @ Hawaii Over 70

Maryland +15 vs. Ohio State

This is a mirror image of the Purdue play a few weeks back when the Boilermakers upset Ohio State. While I think Purdue is a better overall team than Maryland, they are two similar teams in terms of explosiveness.  The way to beat Ohio State is by making big plays as the Buckeyes rank 115th in the nation in IsoPPP Defense (which shows how well a team limits big plays).  Maryland ranks 8th in IsoPPP Offense, which is huge in the cap of this game. 

Maryland is without starting QB Kasim Hill as he tore his ACL against Indiana.  In comes sophomore Tyrrell Pigrome.  Pigrome is a dual-threat quarterback who has rushed the ball 32 times for 200 yards (6.3 YPC).  He has game experience and I really don't think he is a huge downgrade from Kasim Hill.  Hill is the better passer, but Ohio State might struggle containing Pigrome on scramble situations and zone reads.  

Ohio State is going to put up points, but Maryland will have the ability to match each score and keep the game within 15 points especially in a huge sandwich spot for Ohio State (MSU last week & Michigan next week).

Minnesota -2 vs. Northwestern

Northwestern comes into this game with nothing really to gain as they have already locked up a spot in the Big Ten Championship as well as bowl eligibility.  Minnesota comes into this game at 5-5 and need to either win this week or next week at Wisconsin to get to bowl eligibility.  Minnesota will want the chance to get to bowl eligibility this week in coach P.J. Fleck's second year at the helm.  Some trends for this series lean towards the Gophers as well.  The home team has won four in a row (by 20.5 ppg) in this matchup and has covered ATS all four as well.  

Minnesota's defense was extremely impressive last week against Purdue as they held the Boilermakers to only ten points and no plays of longer than 20 yards.  This Northwestern offense is no where near Purdue's offense, so they could be in for a long day.

Northwestern finally clinched the Big Ten West last week after grueling games against Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Iowa.  There is bound to be a let down for Pat Fitzgerald's group as they have actually been out-gained by 28 yards per game in Big Ten play.  Expect regression from the Wildcats and Minnesota to come out hungry and get a victory.

Tulsa @ Navy Under 52

Tulsa and Navy both come into this matchup with records of 2-8 on what has been very disappointing campaigns.  This matchup will be an extremely ugly game and I wouldn't suggest watching it to my worst enemy.  Both Tulsa and Navy struggle mightily in the first half.  

First Half Struggles

• Tulsa
• 13 or fewer points in 8 games
• 3 times shutout (including last week against Memphis)
• Navy
• 10 or fewer points in 7 games
• Have scored 3 total points in the first half of their last three games

When the lines for first half over/under and first quarter over/under come out, I will be on the under of those as well.  Both teams rank in the top 20 in the nation in run rate on standard and passing downs.  The clock will be running the entire game and I think this will be a very tight, low-scoring affair.