CFB Conference Championships Preview

The official start of the postseason is here as ten conferences will crown a champion either on Friday or Saturday.  We also have six other make up games including Virginia Tech trying to get to bowl eligibility with a win over Marshall.  I am going to give a quick preview for each conference championship game and will include my prediction for each game.  Looking ahead to bowl season, I will do the same for every single bowl to get you ready for your pick'em office pools and identify any value that the market provides.

As the Trusty Treble came to a conclusion last week going 2-1, the overall record finished 21-13 (61.8%).  We were so close to a clean sweep, but a late meaningless touchdown for USC blew the Notre Dame cover.  I appreciate all my readers that were along for the ride and I look forward to providing even better content for next season.

MAC

Northern Illinois 7-5 (6-2) vs. Buffalo 10-2 (7-1)

Ford Field (Detroit, MI)

Friday, November 30th at 7:00 on ESPN2

• Open: Buffalo -1.5, O/U: 48.5
• Current: Buffalo -4, O/U: 49.5
• Model: Buffalo -2

Injuries

• Northern Illinois
• Backup CB Albert Smalls (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Buffalo
• No Injuries

Interesting Notes

• Buffalo is 0-10 all-time against Northern Illinois and 3-7 against the spread
• Last meeting was at Buffalo last season (NIU 14-13 win)
• Buffalo's only two losses were blowouts against stout rushing attacks
• vs. Army 42-13 & at Ohio 52-17
• Northern Illinois ranks 128th in the nation in IsoPPP Offense (explosiveness)
• The strength of Northern Illinois' defense is stopping the run (#6 S&P+ rushing defense)
• They were 40th in S&P+ passing defense
• Buffalo owned the #7 S&P+ passing offense
• Northern Illinois has only scored 30+ points in two games all season
• Scored in single digits four times

Prediction: Buffalo 27-19

Pac-12

Utah 9-3 (6-3) vs. Washington 9-3 (7-2)

Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)

Friday, November 30th at 8:00 on FOX

• Open: Washington -3.5, O/U: 43.5
• Current: Washington -5, O/U: 44
• Model: Washington -1.5

Injuries

• Utah
• Starting QB Tyler Huntley (OFY-Collarbone)
• Starting RB Zack Moss (OFY-Ankle)
• Backup QB Jack Tuttle (OFY-Personal)
• Backup WR Bryan Thompson (OFY-Eligibility)
• Backup RB Devonta'e Henry-Cole (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Backup OL Johnny Capra (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Washington
• Backup LB Ben Burr-Kirven (Probable-Head)
• Backup OL Jared Hilbers (Doubtful-Ankle)
• Backup OLB Amanda Williams (OFY-Personal)
• Backup WR Quinten Pounds (OFY-Knee)
• Backup DL Jared Pulu (OFY-Concussion)
• Backup DB Austin Joyner (OFY-Concussion)

Interesting Notes

• Washington won on the road in Week 3 against Utah 21-7 as 4.5 point favorites (O/U: 47)
• Washington is 5-1 Straight Up and 3-3 ATS against Utah
• The favorite has covered in three of the past four Pac-12 Championship Games
• Utah owns a significant advantage on Special Teams
• 7th vs. 115th
• Utah QB Tyler Huntley played in the last meeting (OFY)
• 20/38 for only 138 yards and an interception
• 9 rushes for 54 yards
• Redshirt Freshman QB Jason Shelley has gone 54/96 for 723 yards and a 3-1 TD-to-INT ratio in relief
• Myles Gaskin ran the ball 30 times for 143 yards in the last meeting

Prediction: Washington 27-23

Big 12

Texas 9-3 (7-2) vs. Oklahoma 11-1 (8-1)

AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)

Saturday, December 1st at 12:00 on ABC

• Open: Oklahoma -10, O/U: 77.5
• Current: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U: 78
• Model: Oklahoma -10.5

Injuries

• Texas
• Starting DB Brandon Jones (Out-Head)
• Backup LB Gary Johnson (Probable-Disciplinary)
• Backup WR Joshua Moore (OFY-Shoulder)
• Backup RB Kyle Porter (Out-Undisclosed)
• Backup OL Patrick Hudson (Out-Medical)
• Backup LB Demarco Boyd (Out-Disciplinary)
• Oklahoma
• Starting RB Rodney Anderson (OFY-Knee)
• Starting OL Jonathan Alvarez (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Starting OL Ben Powers (Out-Undisclosed)
• Backup OL Alex Dalton (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Backup RB Marcelias Sutton (OFY-Leg)
• Backup DT Michael Thompson (OFY-Knee)
• Backup S Chanse Sylvie (OFY-Achilles)
• Backup LB Addison Gumbs (OFY-Knee)

Interesting Notes

• Texas won the first meeting 48-45; however, they only had a postgame win expectancy of 8%!
• Oklahoma had a 532-501 yard differential
• Oklahoma committed three turnovers, while Texas didn't commit any
• Oklahoma committed 30 more penalty yards
• Oklahoma owns the #1 ranked offense in IsoPPP, while Texas ranks #114 in the same category
• Texas will struggle to score with Oklahoma again, even against Oklahoma's 84th ranked S&P+ defense
• Oklahoma is phenomenal at finishing scoring drives ranking first in the nation
• 5.75 Points Per Scoring Opportunity
• Oklahoma has not only the #1 rushing S&P+ offense, but also the #2 passing S&P+ offense as well

Prediction: Oklahoma 48-37

Sun Belt

Louisiana 7-5 (5-3) @ App State 9-2 (7-1)

Kidd Brewer Stadium (Boone, NC)

Saturday, December 1st at 12:00 on ESPN

• Open: Appalachian State -19, O/U: 59
• Current: Appalachian State -17.5, O/U: 58.5
• Model: Appalachian State -14

Injuries

• Louisiana
• No Injuries
• Appalachian State
• Starting RB Jalin Moore (OFY-Ankle)

Interesting Notes

• App State has never lost in five meetings 
• Won 27-17 in Week 8 at home as 24.5 favorites
• App State QB Zac Thomas only threw for 108 yards and an interception in the first meeting
• RB Darrynton Evans (filling in for star RB Jalin Moore) ran all over Louisiana rushing for 183 yards on 26 carries
• Louisiana ranks 120th in S&P+ Passing Defense and I don't expect QB Zac Thomas to struggle again
• Both teams rank highly in explosive offenses
• ULL 6th, App State 16th
• However, Appalachian State is much better at defending explosiveness
• ULL 86th, App State 11th

Prediction: App State 38-20

Conference USA

UAB 9-3 (7-1) @ Middle Tennessee 8-4 (7-1)

Floyd Stadium (Murfreesboro, TN)

Saturday, December 1st at 1:30 on CBSSN

• Open: Middle Tennessee -1.5, O/U: 45.5
• Current: Middle Tennessee -2.5, O/U: 45.5
• Model: UAB -1.5 

Injuries

• UAB
• No Injuries
• Middle Tennessee
• Backup RB Brad Anderson (OFY-Undisclosed)

Interesting Notes

• Rematch of last week's matchup in which Middle Tennessee defeated UAB 27-3 at home to clinch a spot in the C-USA Championship 
• The game was easily UAB's worst of the season
• MTSU QB Brent Stockstill went 22/29 for 261 yards
• MTSU was able to break off explosive plays on the ground
• UAB QB AJ Erdely struggled going 9/20 for 90 yards and one interception
• UAB had absolutely nothing to play for last week and MTSU had everything to play for
• I expect UAB's #26 S&P Defense to be up for the task and the offense to look much better

Prediction: UAB 24-20

American

Memphis 8-4 (5-3) @ UCF 11-0 (8-0)

Spectrum Stadium (Orlando, FL)

Saturday, December 1st at 3:30 on ABC

• Open: UCF -9.5, O/U: 72
• Current: UCF -3.5, O/U: 70.5
• Model: UCF -2

Injuries

• Memphis
• Backup DB Carlito Gonzalez (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup DL Jacoby Hill (OFY-Disciplinary)
• UCF
• Starting QB McKenzie Milton (OFY-Leg)
• Backup DE Demetreius Mayes (Out-Suspension)

Interesting Notes

• There is a lot of uncertainty at UCF after QB McKenzie Milton gruesome leg injury last week
• Redshirt Freshman Darriel Mack Jr. will take the reins and is 21/43 for 174 yards on the season
• UCF won 31-30 at Memphis in Week 7 after being down almost the entire game
• Memphis had two turnovers to UCF's one
• Memphis out-gained UCF 490-461 in total yards
• Memphis RB Darrell Henderson ran 31 times for 199 yards
• UCF trying to go undefeated for the second straight season

Prediction: Memphis 34-30

SEC

Alabama 12-0 (8-0) vs. Georgia 11-1 (7-1)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Saturday, December 1st at 4:00 on CBS

• Open: Alabama -12, O/U: 62
• Current: Alabama -13, O/U: 64
• Model: Alabama -9

Injuries

• Alabama
• Starting DB Trevon Diggs (Out-Foot)
• Starting OL Brandon Kennedy (OFY-Knee)
• Starting LB Terrell Lewis (OFY-Knee)
• Backup OL Hunter Brannon (Out-Suspension)
• Backup TE Kedrick James (Out-Ankle)
• Backup DB Daniel Wright (OFY-Shoulder)
• Backup LB Christopher Allen (Out-Knee)
• Georgia
• Starting T Kendall Baker (OFY-Knee)
• Backup OLB David Marshall (Doubtful-Foot)
• Backup DT DaQuan Hawkins-Muckle (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup LB Monty Rice (Questionable-Foot)
• Backup T Cade Mays (Questionable-Shoulder)
• Backup RB Zamir White (OFY-Knee)

Interesting Notes

• Alabama's closest game was a 22 point victory over Texas A&M
• Includes five wins over Top 20 S&P+ ranked teams
• Alabama has the #2 most explosive offense (#2 S&P+ ranked offense as well)
• Georgia is the #1 defense in defending explosiveness
• Georgia has the #3 most efficient offense in the nation and the #10 most explosive
• Alabama is ranked #76 at defending explosiveness

Prediction: Alabama 34-29

Mountain West

Fresno State 10-2 (7-1) @ Boise State 10-2 (7-1)

Albertsons Stadium (Boise, ID)

Saturday, December 1st at 7:45 on ESPN

• Open: Boise State -2.5, O/U: 51
• Current: Boise State -2.5, O/U: 50.5
• Model: Boise State -4

Injuries

• Fresno State
• Backup DT Jason Haynes (Out-Leg)
• Backup OL Netane Muti (OFY-Achilles)
• Boise State
• Starting DT David Moa (OFY-Undisclosed)
• Backup WR John Hightower (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup LB Riley Whimpey (OFY-Knee)
• Backup QB Chase Cord (OFY-Knee)
• Backup CB DeAndre Pierce (OFY-Spleen)

Interesting Notes

• Rematch of Week 11 matchup also at Boise
• Boise State won 24-17
• Boise State out-gained Fresno State 448-390 in total yards
• Both QBs played well
• Boise State's Brett Rypien went 24/29 for 269 yards 
• Fresno State's Marcus McMaryion went 24/35 for 283 yards
• Fresno State averaged 5.16 ypc and Boise State averaged 4.36 ypc
• Boise State ran the ball 42 times compared to Fresno State's 25
• BSU's Alexander Mattison rushed for 144 yards on 30 carries
• Fresno State's rushing defense is ranked #4 in the nation even with the subpar performance against the Broncos

Prediction: Fresno State 30-27

ACC

Clemson 12-0 (8-0) vs. Pittsburgh 7-5 (6-2)

Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)

Saturday, December 1st at 8:00 on ABC

• Open: Clemson -21, O/U: 58
• Current: Clemson -26, O/U: 55
• Model: Clemson -23

Injuries

• Clemson
• Backup QB Kelly Bryant (OFY-Personal)
• Pittsburgh
• Starting LB Quintin Wirginis (OFY-Knee)
• Backup TE Tyler Sear (OFY-Personal)

Interesting Notes

• Pittsburgh's rushing attack has been a key all season (12th ranked in S&P+ rushing)
• Clemson is #1 in the nation in stopping the run
• Clemson is #1 in standard downs defense, meaning they force teams into third and long situations
• Pittsburgh has really struggled passing (87th ranked in S&P+ passing)
• Clemson has allowed seven points or less in six games

Prediction: Clemson 45-13

Big Ten

Northwestern 8-4 (8-1) vs. Ohio State 11-1 (8-1)

Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Saturday, December 1st at 8:00 on FOX

• Open: Ohio State -13, O/U: 57
• Current: Ohio State -14, O/U: 60
• Model: Ohio State -15

Injuries

• Northwestern
• Starting RB Jeremy Larkin (OFY-Back)
• Starting WR Flynn Nagel (Questionable-Leg)
• Backup K Drew Luckenbaugh (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup RB John Moten (Out-Lower Body)
• Ohio State
• Starting DL Nick Bosa (OFY-Abdominal)
• Starting OL Demetrius Knox (Out-Foot)
• Starting WR Austin Mack (Out-Foot)
• Backup S Marcus Hooker (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup WR Cameron Brown (Questionable-Undisclosed)
• Backup DT Malik Barrow (OFY-Knee)
• Backup OL Brady Taylor (Out-Knee)

Interesting Notes

• Ohio State has really struggled with explosive offenses
• Purdue (11th), Maryland (3rd)
• Northwestern ranks 125th in nation in explosiveness
• Northwestern hasn't had a 100% postgame win expectancy in a single win all season
• at Purdue (37%)
• at Michigan State (71%)
• Nebraska (15%)
• at Rutgers (86%)
• Wisconsin (69%)
• at Iowa (69%)
• at Minnesota (79%)
• Illinois (66%)
• Northwestern is 8-4 this season, although they only have 6.0 second order wins
• This means they have been one of the luckiest teams this season
• Ohio State comes into this game in prime form after dismantling Michigan

Prediction: Ohio State 45-20