First Official Saturday of College Football Breakdown
We finally made it through the offseason and have arrived to the first full Saturday of the season. I am ecstatic to binge watch game after game all Saturday. From FAU/Oklahoma at noon to BYU/Arizona at 10:45, my eyes will be glued to the action. The big name matchups are always tough to get an edge on, as the bookmakers have the lines pretty much spot on. I will still provide insight on what my model thinks of all 63 games. I will then provide a quick breakdown on spots that I like. There were several lines that drastically moved as wagers came in. It is a great indicator which sides sharp money is on when you analyze how the spread changes.
Model: Ohio State -28.67 (Urban Meyer being out equals a -2.5 power rating for Ohio State)
Play: Pass
Florida Atlantic @ #7 Oklahoma (-20.5), 72
Model: Oklahoma -17.32
Play: Pass
Southern @ #16 TCU (-44), 55.5
Model: TCU -41.5
Play: Pass
#23 Texas (-14) vs. Maryland, 53.5 (FedEx Field in Landover, MD)
Model: Texas -15
Play: Pass
Kent State @ Illinois (-16.5), 55.5
Model: Illinois -8.19
Play: Pass (Lean Kent State)
Texas State @ Rutgers (-16), 47
Model: Rutgers -14.62
Play: Pass
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina (-29.5), 56
Model: South Carolina -18.08
Play: Coastal Carolina +29.5
Last year Coastal Carolina almost upset SEC member Arkansas as a 23.5 point underdog. South Carolina comes into this year with a lot of hype with returning QB Jake Bentley and gets back RB Rico Dowdle and WR Deebo Samuel, who both missed most of last year due to injury. South Carolina is a really good team and much better than Coastal Carolina. However, South Carolina has a HUGE game on deck with Georgia next week and could be overlooking the Chanticleers. I see South Carolina having some early season struggles, but ultimately winning the game comfortably by 21-28 points.
Mississippi vs. Texas Tech (+2), 67.5 (NRG Stadium in Houston, TX)
Model: Mississippi -3.5
Play: Mississippi +2
Ole Miss is absolutely loaded at wide receiver coming into this season. QB Jordan Ta'amu has the trio of AJ Brown, DaMarkus Lodge, and DK Metcalf all back, who combined for 25 touchdowns last season. Texas Tech arguably has the best defense coming back in the Big 12 and they will be put to the test. The Red Raiders returns ten starters on D and it will actually be a strength for the first time in a while. The offense; however, could struggle as they have a first year QB that Coach Kliff Kingsbury hasn't named yet (I believe McLane Carter will get the job). My model likes Ole Miss here and I agree with my research, so give me the points.
James Madison @ NC State (-11), 55
Model: NC State -14
Play: Pass
Villanova @ Temple (-15.5), 38.5
Model: Temple -20
Play: Pass
Houston (-26) @ Rice, 55.5
Model: Houston -18.5
Play: Pass (Lean Rice)
Model: Clemson -41
Play: Pass
Model: Georgia Tech -40.5
Play: Pass
Model: Boston College -15.77
Play: Pass
Model: Air Force -11
Play: Pass
Harvard @ Ohio (-30), 62
Model: Ohio -30.5
Play: Pass
Model: Georgia -43.5
Play: Pass
#6 Washington vs. #9 Auburn (-2.5), 48.5 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA)
Model: Auburn -2.5
Play: Pass
Appalachian State @ #10 Penn State (-24), 54
Model: Penn State -23.38
Play: Pass
#17 West Virginia (-10) vs. Tennessee, 61.5 (Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC)
Model: West Virginia -6.5
Play: Pass
Albany @ Pittsburgh (-24), 43.5
Model: Pittsburgh -28
Play: Pass
Marshall (-2.5) @ Miami (OH), 51
Model: Marshall -0.7
Play: Pass
Central Michigan @ Kentucky (-17), 49
Model: Kentucky -17.25
Play: Pass
Northern Illinois @ Iowa (-10.5), 48.5
Model: Iowa -7.54
Play: Pass (Lean Northern Illinois)
Washington State (-1) @ Wyoming, 45
Model: Washington State -6.34
Play: Pass (Lean Washington State)
Model: USC -22.23
Play: Pass
North Carolina @ California (-7.5), 60
Model: California -5.33
Play: Pass
UT Martin @ Missouri (-35), 57
Model: Missouri -35.5
Play: Pass
Eastern Illinois @ Arkansas (-35), 58.5
Model: Arkansas -37
Play: Pass
Model: Boise State -11.74
Play: Pass
Old Dominion (-7) @ Liberty, 58
Model: Old Dominion -3.67
Play: Pass
Fordham @ Charlotte (-16.5), 56
Model: Charlotte -27
Play: Pass (Lean Charlotte)
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina (-7), 63
Model: East Carolina -7
Play: Pass
Elon @ USF (-25), 56.5
Model: USF -24
Play: Pass
Richmond @ Virginia (-13.5), 55.5
Model: Virginia -8.5
Play: Pass (Lean Richmond)
South Carolina State @ Georgia Southern (-27.5), 46.5
Model: Georgia Southern -27
Play: Pass
Model: Louisiana -13.5
Play: Pass
VMI @ Toledo (-43), 53
Model: Toledo -45
Play: Pass
SE Missouri State @ Arkansas State (-29.5), 56
Model: Arkansas State -28
Play: Pass
Mercer @ Memphis (-26.5), 65.5
Model: Memphis -26.5
Play: Pass
Central Arkansas @ Tulsa (-10.5), 62
Model: Tulsa -8
Play: Pass
Louisiana Tech (-10) @ South Alabama, 51
Model: Louisiana Tech -8.3
Play: Pass (Lean South Alabama as they are 39-18 at home)
Jackson State @ Southern Miss (-35), 51
Model: Southern Miss -36.5
Play: Pass
Cincinnati @ UCLA (-14.5), 64
Model: UCLA -22.65 (with suspensions UCLA -18.45)
Play: Pass
Indiana (-10.5) @ FIU, 57
Model: Indiana -15.25 (with suspensions Indiana -12.5)
Play: Pass
Nicholls State @ Kansas (-8), 57
Model: Kansas -16
Play: Pass (Lean Kansas)
South Dakota @ Kansas State (-22.5), 63
Model: Kansas State -19
Play: Pass
Model: Michigan -0.67
Play: Michigan ML +105
Tarik Black's broken foot will weaken the Wolverines' receiving corps, but Nico Collins should be able to step up and produce. Michigan is thin at wide receiver now that Black will miss significant time, but in terms of talent they should be able to step up. Black was medically redshirted last season after playing in three games before his season-ending injury. In terms of this matchup, I broke down in depth every facet of the game here.
Stephen F. Austin @ #18 Mississippi State (-41), 53
Model: Mississippi State -48
Play: Pass (Lean Mississippi State)
Charleston Southern @ Florida (-40), 44.5
Model: Florida -27.5
Play: Pass (Lean Charleston Southern)
Middle Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3), 56.5
Model: Middle Tennessee -1.01
Play: Middle Tennessee ML +135
Vanderbilt is 2-6 in home openers since 2010 and both wins were against FCS opponents. Vanderbilt did defeat Middle Tennessee last year 28-6 and the visitor in this series is actually 5-1 outright dating back to 2001. QB Brent Stockstill has been a starter his entire career here and his dad is actually the coach. Stockstill has the experience and the Blue Raiders return 17 starters. I call for Middle Tennessee to get the road upset.
SMU @ North Texas (-4.5), 71
Model: North Texas -1.77
Play: Pass
Northern Arizona (-7.5) @ UTEP, 52.5
Model: UTEP -2
Play: UTEP +7.5
Yes, UTEP is the worst team in the FBS. But a 7.5 point underdog at home against an FCS opponent who went 7-5 last year? I don't buy it. A bright spot should be at quarterback for the Miners as Kai Locksley comes into the year as a highly touted junior college player. Locksley was a former Texas signing and was the #20 QB in his recruiting year. UTEP did not win a game last year, but I have a feeling they will win outright here against Northern Arizona as a dog.
Model: Alabama -17
Play: Pass
Bowling Green @ #24 Oregon (-32), 72
Model: Oregon -25.86
Play: Pass
Akron @ Nebraska (-26), 54.5
Model: Nebraska -20.98
Play: Pass
Abilene Christian @ Baylor (-39), 55
Model: Baylor -46
Play: Pass
South Dakota State @ Iowa State (-14), 53.5
Model: Iowa State -22
Play: Pass (Lean Iowa State)
Incarnate Word @ New Mexico (-35.5), 63.5
Model: New Mexico -35.5
Play: Pass
Model: Fresno State -27
Play: Pass (Lean Fresno State)
Model: Arizona State -19.82
Play: Pass
Model: Arizona -15.45
Play: Pass
Model: Navy -6.48
Play: Pass
If you made it this far, thanks for checking out the article and stay tuned for more college football coverage. Also, reach out to me on Twitter @DekeMathews if you have any comments or suggestions. I appreciate any constructive criticism or any requests!
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| MTSU's Brent Stockstill has already won at Missouri and at Syracuse in his first three seasons |
Biggest Line Moves
12:00
Oregon State @ #5 Ohio State (-38.5), 63.5Model: Ohio State -28.67 (Urban Meyer being out equals a -2.5 power rating for Ohio State)
Play: Pass
Florida Atlantic @ #7 Oklahoma (-20.5), 72
Model: Oklahoma -17.32
Play: Pass
Southern @ #16 TCU (-44), 55.5
Model: TCU -41.5
Play: Pass
#23 Texas (-14) vs. Maryland, 53.5 (FedEx Field in Landover, MD)
Model: Texas -15
Play: Pass
Kent State @ Illinois (-16.5), 55.5
Model: Illinois -8.19
Play: Pass (Lean Kent State)
Texas State @ Rutgers (-16), 47
Model: Rutgers -14.62
Play: Pass
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina (-29.5), 56
Model: South Carolina -18.08
Play: Coastal Carolina +29.5
Last year Coastal Carolina almost upset SEC member Arkansas as a 23.5 point underdog. South Carolina comes into this year with a lot of hype with returning QB Jake Bentley and gets back RB Rico Dowdle and WR Deebo Samuel, who both missed most of last year due to injury. South Carolina is a really good team and much better than Coastal Carolina. However, South Carolina has a HUGE game on deck with Georgia next week and could be overlooking the Chanticleers. I see South Carolina having some early season struggles, but ultimately winning the game comfortably by 21-28 points.
Mississippi vs. Texas Tech (+2), 67.5 (NRG Stadium in Houston, TX)
Model: Mississippi -3.5
Play: Mississippi +2
Ole Miss is absolutely loaded at wide receiver coming into this season. QB Jordan Ta'amu has the trio of AJ Brown, DaMarkus Lodge, and DK Metcalf all back, who combined for 25 touchdowns last season. Texas Tech arguably has the best defense coming back in the Big 12 and they will be put to the test. The Red Raiders returns ten starters on D and it will actually be a strength for the first time in a while. The offense; however, could struggle as they have a first year QB that Coach Kliff Kingsbury hasn't named yet (I believe McLane Carter will get the job). My model likes Ole Miss here and I agree with my research, so give me the points.
James Madison @ NC State (-11), 55
Model: NC State -14
Play: Pass
Villanova @ Temple (-15.5), 38.5
Model: Temple -20
Play: Pass
Houston (-26) @ Rice, 55.5
Model: Houston -18.5
Play: Pass (Lean Rice)
12:20
Furman @ #2 Clemson (-45.5), 55Model: Clemson -41
Play: Pass
12:30
Alcorn State @ Georgia Tech (-42), 57Model: Georgia Tech -40.5
Play: Pass
1:00
Massachusetts @ Boston College (-18), 62.5Model: Boston College -15.77
Play: Pass
2:00
Stony Brook @ Air Force (-11), 58Model: Air Force -11
Play: Pass
Harvard @ Ohio (-30), 62
Model: Ohio -30.5
Play: Pass
3:30
Austin Peay @ #3 Georgia (-43), 57Model: Georgia -43.5
Play: Pass
#6 Washington vs. #9 Auburn (-2.5), 48.5 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA)
Model: Auburn -2.5
Play: Pass
Appalachian State @ #10 Penn State (-24), 54
Model: Penn State -23.38
Play: Pass
#17 West Virginia (-10) vs. Tennessee, 61.5 (Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC)
Model: West Virginia -6.5
Play: Pass
Albany @ Pittsburgh (-24), 43.5
Model: Pittsburgh -28
Play: Pass
Marshall (-2.5) @ Miami (OH), 51
Model: Marshall -0.7
Play: Pass
Central Michigan @ Kentucky (-17), 49
Model: Kentucky -17.25
Play: Pass
Northern Illinois @ Iowa (-10.5), 48.5
Model: Iowa -7.54
Play: Pass (Lean Northern Illinois)
Washington State (-1) @ Wyoming, 45
Model: Washington State -6.34
Play: Pass (Lean Washington State)
4:00
UNLV @ #15 USC (-26.5), 63.5Model: USC -22.23
Play: Pass
North Carolina @ California (-7.5), 60
Model: California -5.33
Play: Pass
UT Martin @ Missouri (-35), 57
Model: Missouri -35.5
Play: Pass
Eastern Illinois @ Arkansas (-35), 58.5
Model: Arkansas -37
Play: Pass
6:00
#22 Boise State (-10) @ Troy, 48Model: Boise State -11.74
Play: Pass
Old Dominion (-7) @ Liberty, 58
Model: Old Dominion -3.67
Play: Pass
Fordham @ Charlotte (-16.5), 56
Model: Charlotte -27
Play: Pass (Lean Charlotte)
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina (-7), 63
Model: East Carolina -7
Play: Pass
Elon @ USF (-25), 56.5
Model: USF -24
Play: Pass
Richmond @ Virginia (-13.5), 55.5
Model: Virginia -8.5
Play: Pass (Lean Richmond)
South Carolina State @ Georgia Southern (-27.5), 46.5
Model: Georgia Southern -27
Play: Pass
7:00
Grambling State @ Louisiana (-17), 61Model: Louisiana -13.5
Play: Pass
VMI @ Toledo (-43), 53
Model: Toledo -45
Play: Pass
SE Missouri State @ Arkansas State (-29.5), 56
Model: Arkansas State -28
Play: Pass
Mercer @ Memphis (-26.5), 65.5
Model: Memphis -26.5
Play: Pass
Central Arkansas @ Tulsa (-10.5), 62
Model: Tulsa -8
Play: Pass
Louisiana Tech (-10) @ South Alabama, 51
Model: Louisiana Tech -8.3
Play: Pass (Lean South Alabama as they are 39-18 at home)
Jackson State @ Southern Miss (-35), 51
Model: Southern Miss -36.5
Play: Pass
Cincinnati @ UCLA (-14.5), 64
Model: UCLA -22.65 (with suspensions UCLA -18.45)
Play: Pass
Indiana (-10.5) @ FIU, 57
Model: Indiana -15.25 (with suspensions Indiana -12.5)
Play: Pass
Nicholls State @ Kansas (-8), 57
Model: Kansas -16
Play: Pass (Lean Kansas)
South Dakota @ Kansas State (-22.5), 63
Model: Kansas State -19
Play: Pass
7:30
#14 Michigan @ #12 Notre Dame (-1.5), 46.5Model: Michigan -0.67
Play: Michigan ML +105
Tarik Black's broken foot will weaken the Wolverines' receiving corps, but Nico Collins should be able to step up and produce. Michigan is thin at wide receiver now that Black will miss significant time, but in terms of talent they should be able to step up. Black was medically redshirted last season after playing in three games before his season-ending injury. In terms of this matchup, I broke down in depth every facet of the game here.
Stephen F. Austin @ #18 Mississippi State (-41), 53
Model: Mississippi State -48
Play: Pass (Lean Mississippi State)
Charleston Southern @ Florida (-40), 44.5
Model: Florida -27.5
Play: Pass (Lean Charleston Southern)
Middle Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3), 56.5
Model: Middle Tennessee -1.01
Play: Middle Tennessee ML +135
Vanderbilt is 2-6 in home openers since 2010 and both wins were against FCS opponents. Vanderbilt did defeat Middle Tennessee last year 28-6 and the visitor in this series is actually 5-1 outright dating back to 2001. QB Brent Stockstill has been a starter his entire career here and his dad is actually the coach. Stockstill has the experience and the Blue Raiders return 17 starters. I call for Middle Tennessee to get the road upset.
SMU @ North Texas (-4.5), 71
Model: North Texas -1.77
Play: Pass
Northern Arizona (-7.5) @ UTEP, 52.5
Model: UTEP -2
Play: UTEP +7.5
Yes, UTEP is the worst team in the FBS. But a 7.5 point underdog at home against an FCS opponent who went 7-5 last year? I don't buy it. A bright spot should be at quarterback for the Miners as Kai Locksley comes into the year as a highly touted junior college player. Locksley was a former Texas signing and was the #20 QB in his recruiting year. UTEP did not win a game last year, but I have a feeling they will win outright here against Northern Arizona as a dog.
8:00
#1 Alabama (-24) vs. Louisville, 62.5Model: Alabama -17
Play: Pass
Bowling Green @ #24 Oregon (-32), 72
Model: Oregon -25.86
Play: Pass
Akron @ Nebraska (-26), 54.5
Model: Nebraska -20.98
Play: Pass
Abilene Christian @ Baylor (-39), 55
Model: Baylor -46
Play: Pass
South Dakota State @ Iowa State (-14), 53.5
Model: Iowa State -22
Play: Pass (Lean Iowa State)
Incarnate Word @ New Mexico (-35.5), 63.5
Model: New Mexico -35.5
Play: Pass
10:00
Idaho @ Fresno State (-19), 43Model: Fresno State -27
Play: Pass (Lean Fresno State)
10:30
UTSA @ Arizona State (-18.5), 53.5Model: Arizona State -19.82
Play: Pass
10:45
BYU @ Arizona (-11.5), 60.5Model: Arizona -15.45
Play: Pass
11:00
Navy (-10) @ Hawaii, 62.5Model: Navy -6.48
Play: Pass
If you made it this far, thanks for checking out the article and stay tuned for more college football coverage. Also, reach out to me on Twitter @DekeMathews if you have any comments or suggestions. I appreciate any constructive criticism or any requests!
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