College Football August 25th Matchups

The 2018 College Football season officially begins on August 25th with a four game slate to kick off the year.  I have spent 100+ hours devising a predictive model for the upcoming season and I can happily say I finally finished.  I am very excited to now jump into each game and see where the value lies in terms of spreads.  Over the season, I will separate my game breakdowns by day.  College Football is my favorite season and I am really excited to be able to give my take on all of these matchups.  My model is strictly for FBS vs. FBS matchups, so I won't have a predictive line for games involving FCS teams.  I will; however, provide an in-depth look at these matchups and give a lean on the side I like.

5:30 Duquesne @ Massachusetts (-23), 67.5

Duquesne is coming off a 7-4 season, good enough for a tie for 2nd in the Northeast Conference.  The Dukes return six starters on offense and defense.  The team loses NEC Offensive POY QB Tommy Stuart which will be a huge loss, but the team has high hopes for Brett Brumbaugh.  He has great size and is a prototypical pocket passer.  Duquesne boasts two Preseason All-FCS selections in RB A.J. Hines and WR Nehari Crawford, who will definitely help Brumbaugh get acclimated.  Crawford has been hailed as an NFL prospect and also returns kicks for the Dukes.  On the Offensive Line, Alex Conley and Matt Fitzpatrick should land on the All-NEC Team.  On Defense, Senior DB's Jonathant Istache and Brandon Stanback should also land on the All-NEC Team.  The Dukes averaged 32.2 PPG last year (best in the NEC) and should be very close to that number this season.  Their only current FBS opponent they faced last season was a trip to Liberty (still FCS at the time) in which they fell 27-24.  The Dukes ranked #63 in '17 FCS Power Rankings and aren't a top tier team by any means.  

Massachusetts is coming off a 4-8 season in which six of eight losses were within 10 points.  They return nine starters on offense and six starters on defense.  Veteran QB Andrew Ford will lead the Minutemen after posting a 22-4 TD-to-INT ratio last season.  This team has a prolific offense that is bound to put up points this season.  The Defense loses three out of its four top tacklers and will need to retool.  The offense is going to put up points, but the big question will be if the defense can slow down other offenses.  Massachusetts hasn't been to a bowl since they moved up to the FBS in 2012.  I personally have them going 5-7, but it isn't out of any realm to see the Minutemen getting to a bowl.

With a spread of 23 points favoring Massachusetts and a total of 67.5, this game is projected to play out as a high scoring affair.  The implied score has Massachusetts winning 45.25-22.25.  Massachusetts eclipsed 45 points twice last season and won its only FCS matchup against Maine 44-31.  I see this game being a little closer than the 23 point spread, with the over hitting.

Prediction: Massachusetts 47-27

7:00 Prairie View A&M @ Rice (-18.5), 58 (ESPN+)

Prairie View A&M Head Coach Eric Dooley will be in his head coaching debut as he comes over from Grambling State where he was the Offensive Coordinator.  The Panthers had a winning season at 6-5 and ranked #73 in '17 FCS Power Rankings.  The team did not face an FBS team last season with the last FBS matchup taking place in '16 against this Rice team.  Rice won that matchup 65-44 and it is one of only four wins this Rice team has had in the last two years.  Prairie View A&M returns seven starters on Offense and only four starters on Defense.  The team loses its starting QB, RB, and top WR but the team is optimistic of last year's #2 RB Dawonya Tucker, who has a lot of potential.  The Offensive Line is an area of strength, but there will be some bumps and bruises early in the season on Offense.  The Defense loses a lot with only four starters returning.  Coach Dooley will have his hands full in what looks to be a rebuilding year.

Rice went 1-11 last season and only averaged 16.3 points per game and 332 yards per game.  This season, they return six on Offense and five on Defense.  I expect it to be another rebuilding year, but I can see strides going forward.  My power ratings call for them to go 3-9 this season, which includes a win in this matchup.  The Offense should be improved and I believe they will improve the team's PPG by at least a touchdown.  

I think points will be scored in this matchup, but not quite to the tune fo the '16 game that produced 109.  The spread of the '16 game was Rice -21, which pushed.  It is hard to back a team as poor as Rice to cover at least 19 points.  I am going to say Rice does not cover the spread and the game goes over.

Prediction: Rice 38-24

7:30 Hawaii @ Colorado State (-14), 58.5 (CBSSN)

Colorado State

• 7-6 (5-3 MWC) last season
• Colorado State will be without its Head Coach Mike Bobo, who has taken a medical leave following a numbness issue in his feet.  The former Georgia Offensive Coordinator will be missed as the team has not stated who will take over in the interim.  
• WR Preston Williams, a transfer from Tennessee, was recently reinstated to the team after a suspension and will be eligible to play in the opener.
• Washington transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels looks to be the starter.
• Returning Starters: 4 Offensive, 5 Defensive

Hawaii

• 3-9 (1-7 MWC) last season
• Lost last year's matchup 51-21 at home
• Returning Starters: 4 Offensive, 5 Defensive

Model: Colorado State -12.75

Play: Pass

10:00 Wyoming (-4.5) @ New Mexico State, 45.5 (ESPN2)

Wyoming

• 8-5 (5-3 MWC) last season
• Cowboys lose QB Josh Allen, but this is the best Wyoming team in the last few years.
• Wyoming plays at 7,220 feet above sea level and are 20-12 at home the last five years, while only 6-23 away.
• Returning Starters: 9 Offensive, 8 Defensive

New Mexico State

• 7-6 (4-4 SBC) last season
• Aggies move from the Sun Belt to an Independent schedule this season.
• New Mexico State has gone just 3-7 in its last 10 home openers.
• Defense will be strong again, but the Offense lost its top three playmakers from last season.
• Returning Starters: 6 Offensive, 9 Defensive

Model: Wyoming -7.2

Play: Wyoming -4.5

Thank you for the read.  Feel free to reach out on Twitter @DekeMathews if you have any feedback!