College Football August 30th Matchups
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| UCF QB McKenzie Milton |
Note: Lines from 8/27 on Bovada
#21 UCF (-23.5) @ Connecticut, 75
Model: UCF -24.66
Play: Pass
New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-21), 46
Model: Minnesota -13.21
Play: New Mexico State +21
New Mexico State is coming off a 29-7 loss hosting Wyoming in Week 0. New Mexico State's offense looked anemic in the first half being held to only eight total yards. Unbelievably, they didn't even cross midfield until their final drive in the waining minutes of the game. That 10-play, 93 yard drive provides a small lift in confidence after a dismal rest of the game. The Wyoming defense showed it was for real and there is some hype building for a team I picked to be better even without Josh Allen. Just like in all sports, recency bias is huge in college football. I think this is way too big of a spread, even with the struggles on offense. My power rankings have Minnesota slightly ahead of Wyoming, even after the strong Week 0 performance from the Cowboys. Anytime I can get a full touchdown on where I think the line should be, I'm hammering the number. Don't expect it to be pretty, but the Aggies defense steps up to cover the spread.
New Mexico State is coming off a 29-7 loss hosting Wyoming in Week 0. New Mexico State's offense looked anemic in the first half being held to only eight total yards. Unbelievably, they didn't even cross midfield until their final drive in the waining minutes of the game. That 10-play, 93 yard drive provides a small lift in confidence after a dismal rest of the game. The Wyoming defense showed it was for real and there is some hype building for a team I picked to be better even without Josh Allen. Just like in all sports, recency bias is huge in college football. I think this is way too big of a spread, even with the struggles on offense. My power rankings have Minnesota slightly ahead of Wyoming, even after the strong Week 0 performance from the Cowboys. Anytime I can get a full touchdown on where I think the line should be, I'm hammering the number. Don't expect it to be pretty, but the Aggies defense steps up to cover the spread.
Central Connecticut @ Ball State (-13), 61.5
Model: Ball State -12
Play: Pass
Kennesaw State (-1) @ Georgia State, 43
Model: Pick 'Em
Play: Pass
SE Louisiana @ ULM (-15.5), 74
Model: ULM -13.5
Play: Pass
Northwestern @ Purdue (-3.5)
Model: Northwestern -2.53
Play: Northwestern +3.5
At the time of writing, this game has been bet down to Purdue -1.5. Four days ago, I got Northwestern at +3.5. I still think there is value on the moneyline of Northwestern +110. Coach Pat Fitzgerald released the team's two-deep depth chart and as expected Clayton Thorson and TJ Green are listed as the starting quarterbacks. The idea is to make Purdue gameplan for both players. Even if Thorson (ACL) doesn't play, I still believe Northwestern gets the win.
At the time of writing, this game has been bet down to Purdue -1.5. Four days ago, I got Northwestern at +3.5. I still think there is value on the moneyline of Northwestern +110. Coach Pat Fitzgerald released the team's two-deep depth chart and as expected Clayton Thorson and TJ Green are listed as the starting quarterbacks. The idea is to make Purdue gameplan for both players. Even if Thorson (ACL) doesn't play, I still believe Northwestern gets the win.
Wake Forest (-6) @ Tulane, 56
Model: Wake Forest -14.02 (with QB Hinton), WF -10.25 (without QB Hinton)
Play: Wake Forest -6 even with Hinton suspended
I'm very high on this Wake Forest team this season. The one caveat here is starting quarterback Kendall Hinton is suspended for the first three games and true freshman Sam Hartman will get the start after impressing in the spring. His inexperience scares me a little, but if he can find a way to get the ball to star receiver Greg Dortch the Deamon Deacons will be fine. Tulane doesn't rate very highly in my model, although they are historically better covering spreads at home. With the spread being down to six points, I'll take Wake by at least a touchdown.
I'm very high on this Wake Forest team this season. The one caveat here is starting quarterback Kendall Hinton is suspended for the first three games and true freshman Sam Hartman will get the start after impressing in the spring. His inexperience scares me a little, but if he can find a way to get the ball to star receiver Greg Dortch the Deamon Deacons will be fine. Tulane doesn't rate very highly in my model, although they are historically better covering spreads at home. With the spread being down to six points, I'll take Wake by at least a touchdown.
Savannah State @ UAB (-31.5), 54
Model: UAB -37
Play: Pass (Lean UAB)
Missouri State @ Oklahoma State (-34), 73
Model: Oklahoma State -37.5
Play: Pass
Weber State @ Utah (-21.5), 48.5
Model: Utah -26.5
Play: Pass (Lean Utah)
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M (-44.5), 63.5
Model: Texas A&M -42.5
Play: Pass
UC Davis (-1.5) @ San Jose State, 69
Model: San Jose State -3
Play: San Jose State +1.5
I can't believe I actually like San Jose State here. I have the Spartans ranked 121st out of 130 FBS teams. I think they are a really bad team. Quite the ringing endorsement to get behind, right? All things considered hear me out. UC Davis is an FCS team, but not a high caliber FCS team at all. UC Davis (5-6 last season) plays out of the Big Sky, who have some real contenders in the FCS, but this team looks to finish at the cellar of the division. The Aggies have a real superstar that is a bright spot. Wide Receiver Keelan Doss is an absolute monster. He contributed 115 receptions for 1499 yards and seven touchdowns. If San Jose State can find a way to limit his production and keep Doss in check, I like San Jose State in a slugfest.
I can't believe I actually like San Jose State here. I have the Spartans ranked 121st out of 130 FBS teams. I think they are a really bad team. Quite the ringing endorsement to get behind, right? All things considered hear me out. UC Davis is an FCS team, but not a high caliber FCS team at all. UC Davis (5-6 last season) plays out of the Big Sky, who have some real contenders in the FCS, but this team looks to finish at the cellar of the division. The Aggies have a real superstar that is a bright spot. Wide Receiver Keelan Doss is an absolute monster. He contributed 115 receptions for 1499 yards and seven touchdowns. If San Jose State can find a way to limit his production and keep Doss in check, I like San Jose State in a slugfest.
Plays Ranked by Confidence
1. Northwestern +3.5 @ Purdue
2. New Mexico State +21 @ Minnesota
3. Wake Forest -6 @ Tulane
4. San Jose State +1.5 vs. UC Davis
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