College Football August 31st Matchups
We're back with another article for the Friday slate of college football matchups. Friday has eight matchups including three ranked powerhouses kicking off the season. I actually really like this slate of games and found some real value and spots I like.
 |
| CSU's K.J. Carta-Samuels threw for a school record 537 yards in the loss to Hawaii. |
Syracuse (-6) @ Western Michigan, 65
Model: Syracuse -7.72
Play: Pass
Monmouth @ Eastern Michigan (-16.5), 60.5
Model: Eastern Michigan -17
Play: Pass
Utah State @ #11 Michigan State (-23.5), 50.5
Model: -22.37
Play: Pass
Army @ Duke (-13.5), 45
Model: Duke -18.33
Play: Under 46 (Placed 8/26), Lean Duke
Last season, Army defeated Duke 21-16 at Michie Stadium. The biggest takeaway from last years meeting was that Duke defended the option very well (held Georgia Tech below season rushing average as well). Duke held Army to only 226 rushing yards on 56 attempts. Duke allowed only 20.3 points per game on the season and returns eight starters this season. Coach David Cutcliffe said this will be his fastest defense he's had here in his 11th season at Duke. I ranked the Blue Devil linebackers as my #1 ACC LB unit and expect the points per game to stay around 20 points again. The speed of this linebacking core is key to stopping Army's potent rushing attack. The Black Knights take a huge hit on offense without starting quarterback and leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw. Duke's offense wasn't able to solve the Black Knight defense last season either. Army returns most of the same defense and I can see Duke having some struggles as well. I have Duke winning this game by pulling away late and both teams having a really tough time scoring. I'm wavering on whether I will take Duke -13.5, but I already locked in the Under of 46.
Last season, Army defeated Duke 21-16 at Michie Stadium. The biggest takeaway from last years meeting was that Duke defended the option very well (held Georgia Tech below season rushing average as well). Duke held Army to only 226 rushing yards on 56 attempts. Duke allowed only 20.3 points per game on the season and returns eight starters this season. Coach David Cutcliffe said this will be his fastest defense he's had here in his 11th season at Duke. I ranked the Blue Devil linebackers as my #1 ACC LB unit and expect the points per game to stay around 20 points again. The speed of this linebacking core is key to stopping Army's potent rushing attack. The Black Knights take a huge hit on offense without starting quarterback and leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw. Duke's offense wasn't able to solve the Black Knight defense last season either. Army returns most of the same defense and I can see Duke having some struggles as well. I have Duke winning this game by pulling away late and both teams having a really tough time scoring. I'm wavering on whether I will take Duke -13.5, but I already locked in the Under of 46.
Western Kentucky @ #4 Wisconsin (-36), 52.5
Model: Wisconsin -27.6
Play: Western Kentucky +36
This is definitely my least confident play of the day, but one I still locked in. Wisconsin is going to be a powerhouse this year by physically dominating on the offensive line and running the ball down team's throat. RB Jonathan Taylor was a 2nd Team All-American selection as a true freshman last season and comes into this season with a lot of hype. With that being said 36 points is a ton of points to cover when you rely on the ground game so much. I am not high on Western Kentucky this year whatsoever though. This team will be bad and will finish the season around the bottom of the C-USA. If they can keep Wiscy out of the end zone early and prolong the game, Wisconsin will use its running attack to grind out the rest of the game. In this situation, I see 36 points as a little high so give me the Hilltoppers.
This is definitely my least confident play of the day, but one I still locked in. Wisconsin is going to be a powerhouse this year by physically dominating on the offensive line and running the ball down team's throat. RB Jonathan Taylor was a 2nd Team All-American selection as a true freshman last season and comes into this season with a lot of hype. With that being said 36 points is a ton of points to cover when you rely on the ground game so much. I am not high on Western Kentucky this year whatsoever though. This team will be bad and will finish the season around the bottom of the C-USA. If they can keep Wiscy out of the end zone early and prolong the game, Wisconsin will use its running attack to grind out the rest of the game. In this situation, I see 36 points as a little high so give me the Hilltoppers.
San Diego State @ #13 Stanford (-14.5), 48.5
Model: Stanford -12.16
Play: San Diego State +14.5
Stanford has had some early season struggles over the last few years. Part of that is playing USC in the first three weeks each of the last four seasons (and this year as well). They also lost at Northwestern in '15 against a freshman starting quarterback (Clayton Thorson). This year they come in with some revenge on their mind after dropping a 20-17 away meeting at San Diego State last season. The Cardinal will be without six key players in the opener, which is huge news. Missing will be starters Jesse Burkett (center) and Alijah Holder (cornerback). Rotation players who will missed are cornerback Malik Antoine, safety/special-teams standout Brandon Simmons and linebackers Curtis Robinson and Jordan Perez. Burkett will be missed at center but Stanford has a tremendous offensive line to block for Heisman hopeful Bryce Love. San Diego State loses Rashaad Penny who accounted for 2248 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns last season. That is a huge loss, but they do return the entire offensive line and starting quarterback. Surprisingly, San Diego State is one of just seven schools to have 10+ wins in each of the last three years. Stanford won't take this game lightly, but I don't see them covering 14.5 points, especially missing some key players.
Stanford has had some early season struggles over the last few years. Part of that is playing USC in the first three weeks each of the last four seasons (and this year as well). They also lost at Northwestern in '15 against a freshman starting quarterback (Clayton Thorson). This year they come in with some revenge on their mind after dropping a 20-17 away meeting at San Diego State last season. The Cardinal will be without six key players in the opener, which is huge news. Missing will be starters Jesse Burkett (center) and Alijah Holder (cornerback). Rotation players who will missed are cornerback Malik Antoine, safety/special-teams standout Brandon Simmons and linebackers Curtis Robinson and Jordan Perez. Burkett will be missed at center but Stanford has a tremendous offensive line to block for Heisman hopeful Bryce Love. San Diego State loses Rashaad Penny who accounted for 2248 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns last season. That is a huge loss, but they do return the entire offensive line and starting quarterback. Surprisingly, San Diego State is one of just seven schools to have 10+ wins in each of the last three years. Stanford won't take this game lightly, but I don't see them covering 14.5 points, especially missing some key players.
Portland State @ Nevada (-24), 71
Model: Nevada -34.5
Play: Nevada -24
Portland State went winless last year at FCS and actually had its closest game with Oregon State (losing by 3). The Vikings return three starters on offense and seven starters on defense. If the offense struggles this game could get really ugly really quick. My model likes Nevada by 10.5 more points than the spread and that shows the obvious value. Nevada returns seven starters on both offense and defense and despite a tough schedule should improve on its 3-9 record last season. Quarterback Ty Gangi is a difference maker and should throw all over Portland State. One small note of caution, Nevada was -30 against Idaho State last season and lost the game 30-28. I don't expect a repeat performance like that so give me the Wolfpack.
Portland State went winless last year at FCS and actually had its closest game with Oregon State (losing by 3). The Vikings return three starters on offense and seven starters on defense. If the offense struggles this game could get really ugly really quick. My model likes Nevada by 10.5 more points than the spread and that shows the obvious value. Nevada returns seven starters on both offense and defense and despite a tough schedule should improve on its 3-9 record last season. Quarterback Ty Gangi is a difference maker and should throw all over Portland State. One small note of caution, Nevada was -30 against Idaho State last season and lost the game 30-28. I don't expect a repeat performance like that so give me the Wolfpack.
Colorado State vs. Colorado (-7.5), 65.5
Model: Colorado -5.5
Play: Colorado State +7.5
Another recency bias spot after Colorado State dropped its opener against Hawaii. Quarterback K.J. Carta-Samuels absolutely went wild throwing for a school record 537 yards and there were definitely positives to take away from the surprise loss. Colorado is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings of the CU-CSU rivalry. QB Steven Montez is back along with three other starters on offense and six starters return on defense. I believe this Colorado team should get back to a bowl game this season, but I really like Colorado State in a bounce back spot to cover the spread.
Another recency bias spot after Colorado State dropped its opener against Hawaii. Quarterback K.J. Carta-Samuels absolutely went wild throwing for a school record 537 yards and there were definitely positives to take away from the surprise loss. Colorado is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings of the CU-CSU rivalry. QB Steven Montez is back along with three other starters on offense and six starters return on defense. I believe this Colorado team should get back to a bowl game this season, but I really like Colorado State in a bounce back spot to cover the spread.
Plays Ranked by Confidence
1. San Diego State +14.5
2. Duke/Army Under 46
3. Colorado State +7.5
4. Nevada -24
5. Western Kentucky +36
Comments
Post a Comment