Deke's Sports Ramblings

We finally made it through the offseason and have arrived to the first full Saturday of the season.  I am ecstatic to binge watch game after game all Saturday.  From FAU/Oklahoma at noon to BYU/Arizona at 10:45, my eyes will be glued to the action.  The big name matchups are always tough to get an edge on, as the bookmakers have the lines pretty much spot on.  I will still provide insight on what my model thinks of all 63 games.  I will then provide a quick breakdown on spots that I like.  There were several lines that drastically moved as wagers came in.  It is a great indicator which sides sharp money is on when you analyze how the spread changes. MTSU's Brent Stockstill has already won at Missouri and at Syracuse in his first three seasons Biggest Line Moves Game Opening Line Current Line MRSH/MIAOH Miami (OH) -2 Marshall -2.5 TEX/MARY Texas -9 Texas -13.5 BG/ORE Oregon -27.5 Oregon -32 MTSU/VAN Vanderbilt -6.5 Vanderbilt -3 BYU/ARIZ Arizona -15 Arizona -11.5

We're back with another article for the Friday slate of college football matchups.  Friday has eight matchups including three ranked powerhouses kicking off the season.  I actually really like this slate of games and found some real value and spots I like. CSU's K.J. Carta-Samuels threw for a school record 537 yards in the loss to Hawaii. Syracuse (-6) @ Western Michigan, 65 Model: Syracuse -7.72 Play: Pass Monmouth @ Eastern Michigan (-16.5), 60.5 Model: Eastern Michigan -17 Play: Pass Utah State @ #11 Michigan State (-23.5), 50.5 Model: -22.37 Play: Pass Army @ Duke (-13.5), 45 Model: Duke -18.33 Play: Under 46 (Placed 8/26), Lean Duke Last season, Army defeated Duke 21-16 at Michie Stadium.  The biggest takeaway from last years meeting was that Duke defended the option very well (held Georgia Tech below season rushing average as well).  Duke held Army to only 226 rushing yards on 56 attempts.  Duke allowed only 20.3 points per game on the season

UCF QB McKenzie Milton The official first week of games kick off on Thursday, August 30th.  It is a 12 game slate and we have several big names schools kicking off their season.  If you didn't see my first article, you can check it out  here  where it explains a little into how my model works.  Since there are so many games,  I will post my model line and add any bets I'm keeping my eye on or have already made.  My model is much sharper on FBS vs. FBS matchups, but I do have power ratings in place for FCS teams as well.  Tread lightly betting on FCS vs. FBS games as they have proven to be a little more unpredictable. Note: Lines from 8/27 on Bovada #21 UCF (-23.5) @ Connecticut, 75 Model: UCF -24.66 Play: Pass New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-21), 46 Model: Minnesota -13.21 Play: New Mexico State +21 New Mexico State is coming off a 29-7 loss hosting Wyoming in Week 0.  New Mexico State's offense looked anemic in the first half being held to only eight tot

The 2018 College Football season officially begins on August 25th with a four game slate to kick off the year.  I have spent 100+ hours devising a predictive model for the upcoming season and I can happily say I finally finished.  I am very excited to now jump into each game and see where the value lies in terms of spreads.  Over the season, I will separate my game breakdowns by day.  College Football is my favorite season and I am really excited to be able to give my take on all of these matchups.  My model is strictly for FBS vs. FBS matchups, so I won't have a predictive line for games involving FCS teams.  I will; however, provide an in-depth look at these matchups and give a lean on the side I like. 5:30 Duquesne @ Massachusetts (-23), 67.5 Duquesne is coming off a 7-4 season, good enough for a tie for 2nd in the Northeast Conference.  The Dukes return six starters on offense and defense.  The team loses NEC Offensive POY QB Tommy Stuart which will be a huge loss, but

Notre Dame and Michigan play for the first time since 2014, where Notre Dame shut out the Wolverines 31-0.  Michigan holds the all-time series lead 24-17-1 (I included the win Notre Dame had to vacate in 2016).  This year's matchup will be held at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. Michigan is coming off a disappointing 8-5 season, while Notre Dame had a solid 10-3 season.  Michigan is returning eight offensive starters and nine defensive starters.  Notre Dame returns six starters on offensive and also returns nine defensive starters.  Both teams have upper echelon defenses and this matchup should be a defensive struggle. Quarterbacks Shea Patterson (MICH) - 166/260 2259 Yds 17 TD 9 INT .. 47 Att, -16 Yds, 1 TD (7 Gm @ Ole Miss) Brandon Wimbush (ND) - 136/275 1870 Yds 16 TD 6 INT .. 140 Att, 804 Yds, 14 TD Shea Patterson is eligible to play after transferring from Ole Miss and will be a huge upgrade at Quarterback for the Wolverines (Article on Patterson  here ).  Co