ATP Ace 6/1

We've made it to June and I am officially done with work until late August.  Over the break I will be providing more and more insight into all sports with betting breakdowns and what wagers I'm on.  As always feel free to follow me on Twitter @DekeMathews and let me know what you think about the article.

Matches

3 Alexander Zverev (-1600) vs. 29 Damir Dzumhur (+900) (Dzumhur leads H2H 1-0)

Dzumhur won only meeting at '17 Shenzhen Open (Hard Court) in straight sets.  Current form is a huge disparity in this matchup as Zverev is 27-7 this year, while Dzumhur is 10-14.  Zverev also in his young career has amassed a 70.67% win percentage on clay (53-22), while Dzumhur is 22-25.  The odds are reflected clearly on this and I don't see any value here.

Prediction: Zverev 3-0

5 Grigor Dimitrov (-165) vs. 35 Fernando Verdasco (+135) (H2H tied 2-2)

Verdasco won earlier this year at the Indian Wells Masters (Hard Court) and the two have split 1-1 on Clay in '15 and '13.  Dimitrov's best surface is Hard (58.59% on Clay), while Verdasco is best on Clay (62.14%).  I could see a route to a Verdasco win, but I believe Dimitrov will get the hard fought victory.

Prediction: Dimitrov 3-1

21 Kei Nishikori (-425) vs. 65 Gilles Simon (+325) (Simon won by walkover only meeting)

Nishikori's last two tournaments have ended at the hands of Novak Djokovic and he has a 12-7 record for the year.  Although Simon comes into this match in better form, Nishikori has a 81-33 (71.05%) record on Clay for his ATP career, while Simon is 137-98 (58.3%).  Nishikori will book his ticket to the Fourth Round.

Prediction: Nishikori 3-1

13 Roberto Bautista Agut (+375) vs. 22 Novak Djokovic (-500) (Djokovic leads H2H 6-1)

The Joker owns Bautista Agut Head-to-Head going 6-1.  Djokovic cleaned up his form at the Rome Masters with a Semifinal appearance in his last tournament and I believe he will continue to find his form of past years with a relatively easy victory here.  

Prediction: Djokovic 3-0

9 David Goffin (-275) vs. 37 Gael Monfils (+220) (H2H tied 2-2)

Goffin is a slightly better player on Clay than Hard, while Monfils has a significant edge on Hard in comparison to on Clay.  Goffin won the last meeting at the US Open in '17, but Monfils won the only meeting on Clay albeit in '13.  This will be a hard fought match, but I believe Goffin will pull away in four sets.

Prediction: Goffin 3-1

8 Dominic Thiem (-1800) vs. 96 Matteo Berrettini (+1000) (First Meeting)

I truly believe Thiem is the biggest threat to upsetting Nadal this year at Roland Garros.  He defeated him earlier in the year and I don't see Thiem getting tripped up in this match.  Berrettini has played strong in his first two matches, but this is a huge step up in competition for the 22 year old.  

Prediction: Thiem 3-0

16 Lucas Pouille (-130) vs. 38 Karen Khachanov (+110) (H2H tied 1-1)

The two played earlier this year twice in a span of four days with Khachanov winning the Marseille Open Final against Pouille and Pouille eliminating Khachanov in Dubai in the Second Round.  I'm really excited to watch this match as I've been riding both of these players as parlay fodders so far in this year's French Open.  Pouille beat the in-form Cameron Norrie last time out and looked very sharp.  I think this is going to be a back and forth match and I am going to ride with the underdog Khachanov in a five set barnburner. 

Prediction: Khachanov 3-2

11 Pablo Carreno Busta (-325) vs. 72 Marco Cecchinato (+260) (Carreno Busta leads H2H 2-0)

Cecchinato barely squeaked by Copil in the First Round in 5 sets and then took out Trungelliti in straight sets who was a feel good story after he got into the tournament as a Lucky Loser and traveled an absurd amount before his first match victory.  Carreno Busta will dispose of Cecchinato and move on.

Prediction: Carreno Busta 3-0

I don't see a ton of value in this slate as we have less matches to choose from in comparison to the last few days.  Right now I only have Khachanov, but I will post anything I add last minute.

Bets

Khachanov +110 1u